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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just keep an eye on that to trend colder with the block and Scooters sneaky high. It’s got traceable for us written all over it

Does certainly look a bit interesting during that time period.  Certainly things can change but nice to see a couple little blips on the radar screen!

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Could be some flakeage late Sunday night/early Monday morning if GFS is correct. Not very impressive, but that system is still there. Much weaker though than some progs several days ago.

That's too bad. Progged to be a decent coastal a few days ago. 

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There's enough ensembles suggestion regardless of camp to consider a possible a cold swept rain system ...late Monday into Tuesday  - which I don't know if that is in addition to the present stream of posting or not... just from what I'm seeing.  

It's parental mechanics are that quasi-closed outside slider out just W of the west coast... the runs open that up and eject it eastward... and it's not entirely clear whether that is being "over-zealously" minored out by some guidance, where others conserve more ... as it comes east of 110 W.   The thing is ..there is cold high pressure pulsing in intervals up under confluence tendencies over S and SE Canda, and that enhances baroclinic potential along and off the EC as a static circumstance from Sun - next Thursday really... wouldn't take much to spin something up through that period and some ensembles take the bate.  We'll see... 

cold rain - what everyone wants too... heh

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's enough ensembles suggestion regardless of camp to consider a possible a cold swept rain system ...late Monday into Tuesday  - which I don't know if that is in addition to the present stream of posting or not... just from what I'm seeing.  

It's parental mechanics are that quasi-closed outside slider out just W of the west coast... the runs open that up and eject it eastward... and it's not entirely clear whether that is being "over-zealously" minored out by some guidance, where others conserve more ... as it comes east of 110 W.   The thing is ..there is cold high pressure pulsing in intervals up under confluence tendencies over S and SE Canda, and that enhances baroclinic potential along and off the EC as a static circumstance from Sun - next Thursday really... wouldn't take much to spin something up through that period and some ensembles take the bate.  We'll see... 

cold rain - what everyone wants too... heh

GGEM is a little more enthusiastic...and it's actually marginal for snow. But yeah, the appeal on this system has changed quite a bit since 3 days ago...we now have the trough almost getting pinched and going positive tilt by the time it crosses the apps.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is a little more enthusiastic...and it's actually marginal for snow. But yeah, the appeal on this system has changed quite a bit since 3 days ago...we now have the trough almost getting pinched and going positive tilt by the time it crosses the apps.

which (bold) interesting if that's too much damping of waves in there..  

also, kind of reminds me of Spring, where the mid range tools tend to overestimate llv warmth during dynamic events.  when I see a marginal coastal progged for the Ides of march, i usually figure on a powder blizzard when push comes to day lead.. 

...okay, that's hyperbole but you get my drift.  any system with a polar high north and 850s between +1 and +3 C is certainly not stretching the imagination very much for mid Novie  ... I mean i kept it at cold rain to help socially-engineer Kevin ... just sayn'

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is a little more enthusiastic...and it's actually marginal for snow. But yeah, the appeal on this system has changed quite a bit since 3 days ago...we now have the trough almost getting pinched and going positive tilt by the time it crosses the apps.

Are you guys referring to the 13th 14th time period or 18th - 19th?

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