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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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Heh... I think if anything the Euro and company are over-done with limitations in the 850 continental layering there... 

We'll see.  that's not a formal declaration for a forecast, but given the tele spread ...that canvas actually supports historic warmth.  The operational cluster appears a bit happy in creating least excuses to "dent" potential.  As the last 4 days have demoed ... that weird era of counting on unseen reasons to spontaneously emerge just in time to stop bigger numbers from getting into the NE ...may finally be broken luck. 

In other words, we may actually see better success with ridging now - going forward.   The best part about it is that we are turning the page into October climo ...which is akin to saying, something somewhere somehow will tend to offset plus biases. not a lot but some

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean now you're just trolling because you have to know by now that the upper air look you keep posting is a risk for backdoors.

He doesn't know how to read upper air...never learned it.

 

 

But yeah, that's some confluence clearly in E Quebec/Nova Scotia...you get the stubborn high there.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GEFS/ENS are way way AN with a few days of 80+ Oct 5-10

The EPS/GEFS look like they show a hint of a front in the means next week so there's probably some split amongst the members. Both op runs pass it through. I don't think I'd be spiking the ball yet.

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35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The EPS/GEFS look like they show a hint of a front in the means next week so there's probably some split amongst the members. Both op runs pass it through. I don't think I'd be spiking the ball yet.

Not spiking anything.. but that's a massive long duration ensemble signal at this lead time 

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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The EPS/GEFS look like they show a hint of a front in the means next week so there's probably some split amongst the members. Both op runs pass it through. I don't think I'd be spiking the ball yet.

Looking at the EPS members forecast high temps, there is definitely a more consistent warm signal early next week, but by next Thursday about 10% creep in with a normal temp day rather than torchy, and by Friday it's more like half the members are normal. Just back of the envelope type stuff, but 80s look roughly twice as likely for Kevin than a normal day next Thursday.

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10 hours ago, dendrite said:

GFS is trying to end Sep with 40s for highs in the interior Sat. 

I keep wondering how long it'll take for the interior to have highs in the 50s again after early September.

MVL max temps for Sept 1 was 57F and Sept 3 was 53F...I wonder if we can go a full month before seeing that again?  This month still blows my mind with how backwards it was.  Coldest days to start the month and then it just gets warmer from there...despite climo heading in the opposite direction.

Today looked like the first seasonable day in 2 weeks...with upper 50s daytime, but it was 60s all night.

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