CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said: DIVULGE!!! Looks good New Rochelle north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks good New Rochelle north. Glad we don’t live near or south of Yonkers this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad we don’t live near or south of Yonkers this winter I feel good where Im at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I feel good where Im at If the blocking is real....you'll do fine. NYC does pretty well when theres blocking....remember Feb 2010. And even Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Going to be very long winter on here, seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks good New Rochelle north. I keep expecting things to fizzle and crush our hopes in the LR....but it hasn’t let us down yet. Pretty consistent in delivering a winter pattern of some sort with details see sawing between pac and atl but dang, can’t complain at this stage.....well, unless you are TauntonFlizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 There is no doubt this is a bottom up effect regarding the NAO. The stratospheric vortex consolidates and looks strong at the end of the ensembles. We'll see how long the blocking lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I keep expecting things to fizzle and crush our hopes in the LR....but it hasn’t let us down yet. Pretty consistent in delivering a winter pattern of some sort with details see sawing between pac and atl but dang, can’t complain at this stage.....well, unless you are TauntonFlizzard. Yeah so far so good. Not sure how long the blocking lasts, but it's a bonus. One thing people need to realize, it's very early in the season. I hope people aren't treating this like something to expect in January. Just because we have blocking, does not guarantee snow given how early it is. I hope people keep things in perspective. If this pattern lasts into December, chances of snow greatly increase...but it's not easy to do in November...even with a favorable pattern. Especially on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah so far so good. Not sure how long the blocking lasts, but it's a bonus. One thing people need to realize, it's very early in the season. I hope people aren't treating this like something to expect in January. Just because we have blocking, does not guarantee snow given how early it is. I hope people keep things in perspective. If this pattern lasts into December, chances of snow greatly increase...but it's not easy to do in November...even with a favorable pattern. Especially on the coast. Great points. Hope peeps take your advice...and nothing is ever guaranteed when dealing with the weather, this should always be taken into account. And this decent look could disappear next/in future run(s). But it is just nice to see something looking somewhat positive at this juncture, rather than endless AN modeling. Hopefully we can cash in on something going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Great points. Hope peeps take your advice...and nothing is ever guaranteed when dealing with the weather, this should always be taken into account. And this decent look could disappear next/in future run(s). But it is just nice to see something looking somewhat positive at this juncture, rather than endless AN modeling. Hopefully we can cash in on something going forward? It’s ok to let the weenie hang out. I get the pros need to be more cautious, they need to cover their fannies. I see big things ahead around turkey day, it’s time to give thanks to the weenie gods and celebrate with weenie tosses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Good to see the pattern starting to trend in a favorable direction from mid month on, This is the time frame where we get an idea tom where this winter is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: sIt’s ok to let the weenie hang out. I get the pros need to be more cautious, they need to cover their fannies. I see big things ahead around turkey day, it’s time to give thanks to the weenie gods and celebrate with weenie tosses. It's not necessarily being cautious, it's the bitching and moaning of weenies if they don't see snow. That's what I was addressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's not necessarily being cautious, it's the bitching and moaning of weenies if they don't see snow. That's what I was addressing. Inland and elevated areas are favored and can do well early on, But it will take a little more work for the coastal plain and coastal areas to see snow with the warmer SST's this time of year, Not saying these areas can't see snow with the right setup though, But it won't happen with every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Great find by Met Kirk Hinz of BAMWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great find by Met Kirk Hinz of BAMWX I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great find by Met Kirk Hinz of BAMWX Real science...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Real science...lol. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: ? Anecdotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Anecdotal you lost me, I have no idea what you are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's not necessarily being cautious, it's the bitching and moaning of weenies if they don't see snow. That's what I was addressing. I know, That’s on them though. Cant control their feelings. We know who is favored in late Novie climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: you lost me, I have no idea what you are talking about What's the "great find"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: you lost me, I have no idea what you are talking about What is the significance of March vs November other than the coincidence of a similar pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: What's the "great find"? Those who expressed concerns about the LP near the GOAK need to only look back to last Marchs very similar pattern to show how things worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: What is the significance of March vs November other than the coincidence of a similar pattern? So what the hell is anecdotal about finding a similar upper air and the results it yielded, how is that not science? I think its important to use history to find how similar patterns yield results, perhaps you don't but I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 East based nina gaining ground, probably anecdotal, but scientifically that's usually a good sign for colder outcomes than originally thought in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: There is no doubt this is a bottom up effect regarding the NAO. The stratospheric vortex consolidates and looks strong at the end of the ensembles. We'll see how long the blocking lasts. Agree, I just posted this in the NY forum. The z500 pattern medium to long range is a vortex intensification precursor. "It appears to me that the upcoming NATL block initiation is due - at least in part - to the circum-global propagation of upper divergence associated with the prior MJO forcing. We recently had a robust phase 8 disturbance, which, while it weakened significantly into the COD on the CPC diagrams, one can still track the eastward propagation of the -VP through the Atlantic and into Africa October 30-Nov7th. This signal induces planetary wave propagation usually resulting in sufficient turbulence to influence the NAO modality approximately 7-10 days later - which, to no surprise, seems to be initiating circa the 13th-15th of November. The forcing for the -NAO is certainly there, but does it have the maintenance power of some of our impressive early blocking stretches such as 2010, 2009, 1995?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 All of the CPC 6-14 day composites put together yield this upper air pattern for the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Every time i hear blocking and it being associated with 2010 i have this vomit taste in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: All of the CPC 6-14 day composites put together yield this upper air pattern for the next 2 weeks Snowmaking for the win in that pattern. Today feels good, I'm looking forward to some cold-weather after the extended summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Nothing new. 12z GEFS continue to advertise high latitude blocking after the 16th or so. West based -NAO does look real nice though and I’ll take it as a great sign for the upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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