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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea but it’s not the ugliest look if the massive vortex covered both epo and wpo regions. 

NAO is def helping there for sure...ideally we'd like that WPO ridge just a smidge east...or not have the vortex fold under it so much....but its still def better than the vortex being over most of AK into the Bering Strait...that is the absolute worst and the difference matters. The NAO actually helps keeps our source from Yukon and not California/Oregon.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wouldn’t the Pacific being the better look be better for us? I’m not counting on an NAO

The NAO event is starting to get near D10 now...so it is probably real. I still want to see it get inside 10 days and be very robust, but this one is strengthening as we get closer which is a good sign. The PAC isn't horrible anyway...I think that vortex folding under temporarily maks it slightly more hostile, but the huge Aleutian ridging doesn't seem to want to go anywhere....so good chance we reload the EPO/WPO down the road.

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 Yeah I didn't mean the Pacific was puke, just wasn't the prettiest look for someone like myself this early in the season. But as Will said, that  -NAO is real. Magnitude to be determined I suppose. But this is the first time I felt that this was not voodoo in at least a few years.

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not personally concerned ...or even suspecting really, much loss in the negative phase state of the EPO.  

I almost think the worst that will evolve is neutrality before perhaps a concerted reload - "concerted" because the -WPO is heavily positively correlated with the -EPO phase state, and the entire Asia relay into the WPO (which is also a bit hinted in the fact that the MJO wave strengths are biased in the 7-8-1-2)  favors the -WPO.  The logical conclusion is supportive of the -EPO, which is probably why we wended our way into one (as well as scooped out a couple of west. Pac typhoons while we were at it) it in the first place.  

What I find intriguing is the appearance of multi-guidance support for westerly biased -NAO blocking.  ... It's getting precarious for front loading -

 

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO event is starting to get near D10 now...so it is probably real. I still want to see it get inside 10 days and be very robust, but this one is strengthening as we get closer which is a good sign. The PAC isn't horrible anyway...I think that vortex folding under temporarily maks it slightly more hostile, but the huge Aleutian ridging doesn't seem to want to go anywhere....so good chance we reload the EPO/WPO down the road.

Not done crafting the outlook, but I have been on the early and late blocking train.

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