weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Matches what the ensembles were starting in the 12-15 day period. Esp week 3...week 4 is almost El Nino look with lower heights south of Aleutians what are some key components which shape the hemispheric pattern configuration to reflect that of a certain ENSO state when you're not in that state? Like hasn't the pattern sort of been a reflection of a La Nina state as of late? Now that would transition to more of an EL Nino look? I would think perhaps the PDO could be of influence but I don't think the PDO signal is overly strong (looks negative but not extremely negative). Can MJO activity (or even QBO) have a major influence? I know MJO activity has been rather robust and if it remains rather robust when it propagates through each phase (given how each phase has a correlation to certain pattern configurations I'm sure some resemble Nina's/Nino's) that could alter the pattern to reflect a specific Nino state? Also, aren't Nina's for typical in easterly QBO states or is it easterly states are more connected with La Nina episodes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Did we verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 6hr min has a 19F in Stafford. Point is that would probably be upper teens for many. I wouldn't laugh at Kevin for claiming teens just because a 2m map shows 20F. Heck MOS is 14F at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Did we verify? Just odd you posting we weekly when you told us to toss them, seems kind of well.... ironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 It's interesting in that the tropics do not argue for that look. So it either has gone overboard, or something else going on. We'll have to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Just odd you posting we weekly when you told us to toss them, seems kind of well.... ironic Yes I posted what they had. See my caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 6hr min has a 19F in Stafford. Point is that would probably be upper teens for many. I wouldn't laugh at Kevin for claiming teens just because a 2m map shows 20F. Heck MOS is 14F at ORH. I didn't question his teens either just posted a 6AM run time map, not understanding your point but OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 6hr min has a 19F in Stafford. Point is that would probably be upper teens for many. I wouldn't laugh at Kevin for claiming teens just because a 2m map shows 20F. Heck MOS is 14F at ORH. some of the soundings for Friday night into Saturday certainly yield the possibility for teens for many locations across the interior. Pretty impressive radiational cooling signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Man all mets are locking and loading Deep winter and threats this month .Here and other places. White Tgiving coming folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: some of the soundings for Friday night into Saturday certainly yield the possibility for teens for many locations across the interior. Pretty impressive radiational cooling signal Is it radiational or CAA I see a lot of uniformity with hill tops the coldest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man all mets are locking and loading Deep winter and threats this month .Here and other places. White Tgiving coming folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Is it radiational or CAA I see a lot of uniformity with hill tops the coldest Thursday night was certainly CAA but I think Friday night yielded a pretty strong radiational cooling signal. I thought hill tops certainly coldest Thursday night into Friday with really steep lapse nrates from sfc to 850 but Friday night into Saturday looked like a slight inversion above the sfc. I looked at a few soundings though, particularly across CT and a few in MA so not sure how reflective this is across the region as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man all mets are locking and loading Deep winter and threats this month .Here and other places. White Tgiving coming folks Can't wait for the weenies worried about November warmth to start worrying about getting too cold too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 It’s starting to get snippy in here. A Tell tell sign it’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Can't wait for the weenies worried about November warmth to start worrying about getting too cold too early. Or when the weeklies break down. Not sure I am all in yet...but at least it looks favorable anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Shot at the teens here Sat AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 One of the the things I always monitor is first freeze. If it’s within a week of normal we’re ok but beyond that I worry. BOS looks within 3 days of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: One of the the things I always monitor is first freeze. If it’s within a week of normal we’re ok but beyond that I worry. BOS looks within 3 days of normal. Check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 I’m always a bit skeptical of MEX numbers, especially 5 days out. But a decent slug of cold looks to be incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man all mets are locking and loading Deep winter and threats this month .Here and other places. White Tgiving coming folks What a lovely butterfly you have become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 At least week 3 looks good. That has a little skill...week 4 is crap for skill but it's a nice pattern if it verifies. Week 3 is more of a La Niña look so it's more believable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 41 minutes ago, dendrite said: 6hr min has a 19F in Stafford. Point is that would probably be upper teens for many. I wouldn't laugh at Kevin for claiming teens just because a 2m map shows 20F. Heck MOS is 14F at ORH. The MOS numbers are ridiculous given they are skewed towards climo out at that range. I think I saw 4F for MPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m always a bit skeptical of MEX numbers, especially 5 days out. But a decent slug of cold looks to be incoming Well we usually post them after an extreme run for ****s and giggles. That's why the numbers we post rarely verify. If we took an average over like a 2 day period it's usually pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What a lovely butterfly you have become. I flipped in September but unfortunately the weather didn’t. You got your extended summer. It’s time to flip the scripts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man all mets are locking and loading Deep winter and threats this month .Here and other places. White Tgiving coming folks You seem chipper. Quite a departure from the doom and gloom of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: You seem chipper. Quite a departure from the doom and gloom of September. When things start looking good after months of looking bleak,, we drink and we chipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 I’d pump the brakes on any real excitement. Looks downright cold for a day or two... and maybe some flurries in the favored areas over the next week or so. Not exactly anything to write home about outside of the 2 cold days coming up. Ill take normal though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When things start looking good after months of looking bleak,, we drink and we chipper AO tanking, signs of blocking, things turning wetter and cooler. Can't blame ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 7:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said: My take is 180 opposite. Very mild Dec with little snow . Most snow waits till late 2nd half winter Is this still your call? Or are you changing your mind? Cuz now you're saying things like snowy, and white Thanksgiving. So we aren't gonna have to wait till late 2nd half of winter for any snow?? Might have jumped the gun on the Ratter train a bit ....no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d pump the brakes on any real excitement. Looks downright cold for a day or two... and maybe some flurries in the favored areas over the next week or so. Not exactly anything to write home about outside of the 2 cold days coming up. Ill take normal though Have you looked at the longer range ensembles? Looking good for colder risks in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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