HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Sometimes I feel like the models tend to rush these changes a bit...for better or for worse. We know winter will come and we see the first inklings that this blasted furnace of the last 55 or so days is ending...but I think it will be a slow process still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: First week of April was pretty wintry. Yeah it pulled it up a notch. It wasn't a ratter in my eyes, but I can see why some felt it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That system for early next week (Nov 13-14ish) is gaining a little more interest in the synoptic look. It's dependent on that arctic shot preceding it actually occurring which appears to be gaining some support too. I agree with Tip talking about how the model guidance may be struggling a bit with the whole regime of this -EPO and short wave length issue...the hemispheric pattern "wants" to be colder for us with the EPO look but idiosyncrasies have so far prevented it...however, perhaps a few chickens are coming home to roost next weekend and early next week. We will see...at least it is something that warrants checking in on each model cycle. The EPS was showing that for about 36 hrs now. A nice fresh batch of cold air preceding it. The standard caveats apply, but something to keep on the back burner anyways. There's also a bit of a Hudson Bay ridge preceding it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EPS was showing that for about 36 hrs now. A nice fresh batch of cold air preceding it. The standard caveats apply, but something to keep on the back burner anyways. There's also a bit of a Hudson Bay ridge preceding it too. The Hudson Bay ridge would help hold high pressure in place too. We'll see how things look going forward. Not getting invested in winter precious yet but it won't be surprising if it happens. 12z euro should actually be kind of interesting here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Def a bit of a signal on the 12z EPS at day 8. High pressure over Quebec and a hint of low pressure to the south of LI. It seems the ensembles are more and more on board for a good cold shot too later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Jfc on the GGEM... is that sub-504dm thicknesses over NNE on Nov 10th?! Ill eat my hat if it's 15F here at 1pm in the afternoon on Friday. Those are some insane afternoon/daytime temps in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Jfc on the GGEM... is that sub-504dm thicknesses over NNE on Nov 10th?! Ill eat my hat if it's 15F here at 1pm in the afternoon on Friday. Those are some insane afternoon/daytime temps in NNE. Those temps are low all the way down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 yeah.. pf the apparently ... invisible elephant no one realizes is in the room, is that sort of thing has been modeled a bit more frequently than merely typical autumn fantasies by day-dreamer distance range model visions. That, in its self, is sort of suggestive of some underpinning trend - the models could be picking up on deeper tissue tendencies that could become more 'verifiable' given deeper descent into the cold season. I can understand one or two cycles in the three week sort of time span, but this is like all the time this year... I don't think that's happening in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Those temps are low all the way down the coast. Yeah I'm sure...was just trying to wrap my head around what afternoon temps in the teens might feel like all the sudden. Very little chance of that extreme cold (it's like -20C at 850 over northern VT/NY) but even a sub-freezing day right now would feel brutal haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol DIT is still hungover If I didn't know any better, I'd say he's really a Russian bot, auto-replying about droughts and torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: That system for early next week (Nov 13-14ish) is gaining a little more interest in the synoptic look. It's dependent on that arctic shot preceding it actually occurring which appears to be gaining some support too. I agree with Tip talking about how the model guidance may be struggling a bit with the whole regime of this -EPO and short wave length issue...the hemispheric pattern "wants" to be colder for us with the EPO look but idiosyncrasies have so far prevented it...however, perhaps a few chickens are coming home to roost next weekend and early next week. We will see...at least it is something that warrants checking in on each model cycle. Congrats @dendrite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats @dendrite? My birds told me they want to roost to a +EPO, +++ENSO, +NAO, +AO, and a +DIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: My birds told me they want to roost to a +EPO, +++ENSO, +NAO, +AO, and a +DIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it Nope...not gonna happen, it's a Ratter...end of story. You're not feeling the torch November anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nope...not gonna happen, it's a Ratter...end of story. You're not feeling the torch November anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm sure...was just trying to wrap my head around what afternoon temps in the teens might feel like all the sudden. Very little chance of that extreme cold (it's like -20C at 850 over northern VT/NY) but even a sub-freezing day right now would feel brutal haha. I’m thinking that would be a pretty chilly start to deer season the next morning. Not that I’m going out into the woods lol. Will need to stay in camp and keep the fire stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it You’ve felt one too many ‘s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’ve felt one too many ‘s. Lmao. He sure has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’ve felt one too many ‘s. You are the warm weenie of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Jesus .. what a dip schit... i'm sitting here waiting for the 18z GFS to start rollin in - not that the run has any intrinsic value or nothin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus .. what a dip schit... i'm sitting here waiting for the 18z GFS to start rollin in - not that the run has any intrinsic value or nothin' Lol...it rolled in an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You are the warm weenie of SNE ha, I think I am one of the few going for a big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it Doubt it, but that would make sense. right from summer to an early season snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doubt it, but that would make sense. right from summer to an early season snow Seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doubt it, but that would make sense. right from summer to an early season snow We coming for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I’m thinking that would be a pretty chilly start to deer season the next morning. Not that I’m going out into the woods lol. Will need to stay in camp and keep the fire stoked. Wuss..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ha, I think I am one of the few going for a big winter. I’m on the same boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: That's awesome. Follow them around and tell me what their diet consists of. Probably fast food and chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ha, I think I am one of the few going for a big winter. I am too! My prediction last week was that we'd have our first inch by Nov 15, while my partner said New Years Eve. I think it is going to be a longer winter weather period than has been the norm lately, that it will snow a lot this winter and we are going to have a lot of bouts of cold weather. Reasons 1) because that is what I want and I am a weenie 2) La Nina 3) better set up for some -NAO this year (QBO) 4) EPO dumping cold early 5) warm Sept and Oct, and a well-trending first significant cold snap coming shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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