RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I am making up my own "box" to correlate winters. It will be called The Pacific Defecation Oscillation. A +PDO consists of below normal heights encompassing the Bering Sea through the waters west of British Columbia. That will correlate to a sh*tty winter here. Mine is pretty simple too: == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Both “sides” can turn out right this year though. It could be a torch (ratters win) and a rogue couple weeks gives most of us above snowfall (snow weenies win). lol. We can say that extreme weather has increased in GW, the flip from torch to deep winter, and vis versa, can happen moreso then typical climate data suggests. We can crunch all the numbers and look at all the factors include all the texhnology, but it’s still an unperfect scientific guess to start.....then ice the cake with GW. I’m just hoping for a winter that is longer than 2-3weeks. It seems like those happen more often lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m just hoping for a winter that is longer than 2-3weeks. It seems like those happen more often lately. I know. 13/14 I think was the last decent stretch where winter didn’t feel like a cheap quickie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: In all seriousness, looks more like the ensembles. Surprise surprise. Still a cold shot, just not record cold. I think once they make the GFS uncoupled from the atmosphere in addition to the ocean we'll really have ourselves a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: As per Fisher So what are our warmest autumns on record? 2011, 1931, 2015, 1946, 2007, 2001, 2016, 1953, 1999, and 1961 (in order of warmest). You’ll also notice that if this year holds on, we’ll have 4 of the Top 10 in this decade alone. If you’ve had a feeling that we’ve had a lot of warmth post-summer lately, you’re right! If you look at the Boston snowfall totals in the winter that followed all these autumns, the numbers are pretty paltry. Some of our least snowy winters on record, in fact. For instance, 2011-12 was the year without a winter…a mere 9.3″ of snow in Boston. Didn’t even have to put a lawn chair out to save a parking spot. Just 18.4″ fell in 1931-32, and 19.4″ in 1946-47. Last year had average snowfall (47.6″) but it didn’t feel like it considering it was the 4th warmest winter on record. 2001-02 came in with only 15.1″. An exception to the list was 2007-08, which was a hearty winter with solid snowfall. Boston received 51.2″ and interior New England did very well. We also had a very warm October in 1995, which was proceeded by our snowiest winter on record (until the 2014-15 season One of the local stations up here did something similar, but just with Septembers so obviously a weaker correlation. But the end results was 70% above normal snowfall winters followed, with half of those being over 90" for PWM (normal 62"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 It's gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 The CAR WFO had some interesting comparisons to the record warmth.... Quote Most places in New England had a record warm October. How warm was it? The observed October temperatures in Northern Maine were about what would be average for Central Pennsylvania, and for Downeast, it was about what would be average for Northern Maryland. They also have the rankings for warmest October and Sept-Oct combo. October rankings...widespread #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Here's the September and October combo... pretty impressive considering the long period of record of some of these sites. Not even close in most cases either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I know. 13/14 I think was the last decent stretch where winter didn’t feel like a cheap quickie. 14-15 was decent for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 14-15 was decent for you. Anything good that happenned before or after the Jan 15 bust that winter, I have a hard time remembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 How is 2015-16 in the ratter category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: How is 2015-16 in the ratter category? What was your total that year? Boston only got 41”or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What was your total that year? BOS was within 20% of normal....36 inches. Sub par but above the ratter threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: BOS was within 20% of normal....36 inches. Sub par but above the ratter threshold. Yeah...not sure it would be a ratter at that definition. Still, below normal significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOS was within 20% of normal....36 inches. Sub par but above the ratter threshold. What do we consider a ratter? Half or less of normal snow? Seems kind of subjective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah...not sure it would be a ratter at that definition. Still, below normal significantly. I wouldn’t call it significant. 43 vs 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What do we consider a ratter? Half or less of normal snow? Seems kind of subjective 30-40% below climo. No way can you count 7 inches below normal a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Nam 0z snowfall nam is cold and maybe snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: 30-40% below climo. No way can you count 7 inches below normal a ratter. Yeah.... that isn’t a ratter in my book.... that’s just slightly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 No more cold shot. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Looks like an avg week on tap, AN tomorrow, with a cool shot at the tail end. I gues we should start to worry there’s no monster trough under our beds producing snow angels for breakfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 No surprise. Just normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Models an hour earlier now.... its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Models an hour earlier now.... its coming Extra hour to see how mild the extended looks after next weekend?No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 What clowns. That's a cold **** next weekend. I don't see anything wrong in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Gfs trended a lot colder. Euro a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What clowns. That's a cold **** next weekend. I don't see anything wrong in the extended. No ****. Looks like 20s for highs in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What clowns. That's a cold **** next weekend. I don't see anything wrong in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Yeah...-10C 850s are damn cold for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Extra hour to see how mild the extended looks after next weekend?No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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