Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

I don't mind being warm until Thanksgiving....better not to blow our load on all the cold now, get all the warmth out of the way first so winter can stay cold. 

Never understood this logic unless you wanted a warm, snowless winter. 

There's no magic switch when Dec 1st hits when the pattern is garbage before that. 

[dryslot]

We want to start to see some colder air on the models leading into the second half of Nov, Looks like that may be the case, Your not going to get sustained this time of year but you want to start out Dec with some cold if you want it front loaded.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We want to start to see some colder air on the models leading into the second half of Nov, Looks like that may be the case, Your not going to get sustained this time of year but you want to start out Dec with some cold if you want it front loaded.

The panic that theres no “monster” trough and polar vortex invasion is troubling. I expect more from the weenie veterans. I’m fine with a -epo loading up the north with cold, even if the initial cold shots are into the west coast. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The panic that theres no “monster” trough and polar vortex invasion is troubling. I expect more from the weenie veterans. I’m fine with a -epo loading up the north with cold, even if the initial cold shots are into the west coast. 

In the long range modeling, You are starting to see thicknesses in the 400 dm range around James Bay, As long as we see Canada staying cold, I'm good, You know that its going to make its way into the NE at some point coming up over the next several weeks even if its transient shots for now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The warmth is mostly due to se ridging expanding north as the trough dips into the west anyway. There’s a seesaw going on which is expected...eventually it should spill further east. But couple torch days and folks acting like the one eye weenie is setting up for the rest of eternity.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The warmth is mostly due to se ridging expanding north as the trough dips into the west anyway. There’s a seesaw going on which is expected...eventually it should spill further east. But couple torch days and folks acting like the one eye weenie is setting up for the rest of eternity.

You, and we all know it's just a select few who spread the panic...same crap every year from same people... Fake premature Panic.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You, and we all know it's just a select few who spread the panic...same crap every year from same people... Fake premature Panic.  

Meh... October was a furnace and November has been so far too. There is a pretty strong correlation between torch November and crap winter. 

Ignore if you’d like.... but that’s the truth

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh... October was a furnace and November has been so far too. There is a pretty strong correlation between torch November and crap winter. 

Ignore if you’d like.... but that’s the truth

I don't think Novie is going to torch....we're three days in, dude.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh... October was a furnace and November has been so far too. There is a pretty strong correlation between torch November and crap winter. 

Ignore if you’d like.... but that’s the truth

Too much to overcome, can’t turn Nov around. 

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think Novie is going to torch....we're three days in, dude.

Nah, throw in the towel. All hope is lost.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think Novie is going to torch....we're three days in, dude.

It definitely might not. My point is, if it does, were in trouble.

The start is at least mildly concerning 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It definitely might not. My point is, if it does, were in trouble.

The start is at least mildly concerning 

Yea, we've covered that.

And no, it isn't...we have one more mild day on Monday, then its pretty cold for like a week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The month could torch, but that is evident on modeling right now.

[weathafella]

Maybe this can be like Brett debbying his way to 17 inches like last winter?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The first potential snowstorm for New England as a whole is supposedly on the 9-10th of November.  This threat time frame looks to have a phase issue right now between the overall mean northern jet stream trough and a southern stream system that moves from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic coastline.  It could become a better threat once the models get closer to the time frame in question

[40/70 Benchmark]

It looks to have a climo issue right now...probably won't look better.

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh... October was a furnace and November has been so far too. There is a pretty strong correlation between torch November and crap winter. 

Ignore if you’d like.... but that’s the truth

Lmao...you're rediculous.  Wednesday was the first day of November...and it was below normal by quite a bit.  So big deal the last two days have been warm...who cares.  Tomorrow and Sunday back to normal.  What a negative Nellie...any hint of AN and you're on the negative train constantly....time for you to head for the Tobin.

 

 

[WeatherFeen2000]

Canadian has us warm and wet and GFS has dry for next Wednesday night or so. Navgem 18z has a burst of snow for our area at 114hrs. Let's see what the euro says. 

• Report Blog

 Share This

 Discussion started by toNY 2 days ago 

Tracking a possible rain to snow event for the northeast into the mid Atlantic next week around November 8th-10th 2017. There is a possibility of a winter storm around our area or maybe just a bit north of there. we will keep an eye on this here at liveweatherblogs.com

[CoastalWx]

It looks like we'll be on the cool side into mid month. We then may turn a little AN, but it looks like more the high pressure overhead fair wx cool night stuff. It's definitely not the massive SE ridge torch pattern we have had for weeks. Based on the hemispheric H5 look, I do not see anything alarming, even if we have a warm spell. It's a Nina Novie...that will happen. Tough to say what happens after mid month. The GFS looks a little ugly with this trough on the west coast of Canada and zonal flow over NAMR. The EPS is a little better with the -EPO and develops some Scandinavian ridging which offers a bit more in the way of colder NW flow from Canada into the nrn tier of the US. Hopefully the more skilled EPSis correct.

[CoastalWx]

And now the 6z GEFS look better fwiw.

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensemble definitely is not as cold as the euro op, but does look like it has highs near 40 in the higher spots in SNE, 30s up north for Friday and Saturday. Euro op has 30s for everyone.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm still mostly focusing on the N PAC. We may finish November warm, but if it because we had a -EPO pattern with a trough folding underneath it into a deep PAC NE trough then that is not as alarming as getting a warm November from a vortex in AK. One reason that above normal novembers are generally bad is because they tend to occur due to a large AK/Bering vortex...and that tends to precede winters where the vortex is dominant up there. If we are getting an above avg November due to the nuanced -EPO pattern then I won't be as worried. There is still plenty of time for all outcomes...though I think a positive EPO type pattern dominating November is becoming unlikely. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Voice of reasons ftw.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still mostly focusing on the N PAC. We may finish November warm, but if it because we had a -EPO pattern with a trough folding underneath it into a deep PAC NE trough then that is not as alarming as getting a warm November from a vortex in AK. One reason that above normal novembers are generally bad is because they tend to occur due to a large AK/Bering vortex...and that tends to precede winters where the vortex is dominant up there. If we are getting an above avg November due to the nuanced -EPO pattern then I won't be as worried. There is still plenty of time for all outcomes...though I think a positive EPO type pattern dominating November is becoming unlikely. 

Exactly. Can't be too IMBY with this. Have to look globally. If we avg warm and the gradient was 150 miles away....I'll live. I agree...no alarming looks to guidance right now.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Voice of reasons ftw.

Yes, thank goodness for Will and Scott to put things into perspective, and give everyone the real info on to what is really happening.    Appreciate the break down of the modeling in a factual and accurate way. 

 

Instead of the total "extreme ideas" and nonsense from the Tobin Jumpers...on 2days of AN weather on November 3rd. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still mostly focusing on the N PAC. We may finish November warm, but if it because we had a -EPO pattern with a trough folding underneath it into a deep PAC NE trough then that is not as alarming as getting a warm November from a vortex in AK. One reason that above normal novembers are generally bad is because they tend to occur due to a large AK/Bering vortex...and that tends to precede winters where the vortex is dominant up there. If we are getting an above avg November due to the nuanced -EPO pattern then I won't be as worried. There is still plenty of time for all outcomes...though I think a positive EPO type pattern dominating November is becoming unlikely. 

This is exactly what/why I was saying a couple weeks ago that qualifying 'why' an autumn in warm is far more important for trend analysis, than just tossing hands in presumption one way or the other based upon hard numbers.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

The underlying mechanisms that could cause a top ten AN autumn could drive a warmer, below normal snowfall winter. Def not any guarantee. Getting November to trend colder will help set the stage for December.     

I’m not Tobin jumping, but I’m not excited for a big winter.  I will eat crow as warranted. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The underlying mechanisms that could cause a top ten AN autumn could drive a warmer, below normal snowfall winter. Def not any guarantee. Getting November to trend colder will help set the stage for December.     

I’m not Tobin jumping, but I’m not excited for a big winter.  I will eat crow as warranted. 

Even last year, we had a rather strong SE ridge, but an AN snow winter locally. Sure retention sucked...but we made it work. You are right in that a strong SE ridge could overwhelm, but the main thing is that the normal players that lock in an awful winter, aren't there. For now anyways. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The underlying mechanisms that could cause a top ten AN autumn could drive a warmer, below normal snowfall winter. Def not any guarantee. Getting November to trend colder will help set the stage for December.     

I’m not Tobin jumping, but I’m not excited for a big winter.  I will eat crow as warranted. 

Again, Who said Big??  Nobody here that is here regularly ever said big...at least not that I saw or read.  But the Ratter talk is also tiresome, and we hear it every year around this time.  

 

Sure, this winter could turn out to be a sucker.  I would never deny that possibility.  But as Scott just pointed out, the indicators that usually point out an awful winter, are not there at the moment.  Could they all of a sudden show up...I'm Sure they can.  

My point is only, that saying this winter is going to be a Ratter at this stage, is just as reckless as saying it's going to be a blockbuster.  Can't possibly say either way at this point!

Average as of now is a good place to start imo...and go up or down from there as needed.  

 

If somebody wants to take a guess that the winter is going be a Ratter, that's great.  But basing it on October being a furnace, and two days of November being warm, is not factually based in my opinion.  

[weathafella]

I don’t get the proclamation one way or another at this point.  It would not be unusual to have good and bad periods this winter.   What has to happen to tilt it good/bad is to cash in or not during the good patterns.    I’m pretty confident the Pacific cooperates.   Getting the North Atlantic in our side is the difference between ok to less than ok vs good to great.