Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

Recommended Posts

Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

American Meteorological Society is what the acronym alludes to...but I think what that is referring to is a computer-generated simulation of exactly how the atmosphere will play out.

pretty obvious pun i thought - oh well ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Cold GFS run late next week...first legit arctic shot on that run...-23C 850s for the picnic tables and -18C for SNE.

Obviously I'm skeptical we actually get that cold as other guidance hasn't really shown it yet at that magnitude, but either way it does look like we will have our first day of highs sub-40F most likely (at least for high terrain)....if the GFS comes true then maybe sub-freezing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
scoob40

scoob40

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It is kind of a short lived cold shot so I won't be surprised as the models moderate those temperatures  over the next few days. 

Either way it will be nice to get more seasonable cold and fire uu the woodstove for the first time this season.

Might have to turn the heat on for the first time as well.:(

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cold GFS run late next week...first legit arctic shot on that run...-23C 850s for the picnic tables and -18C for SNE.

Obviously I'm skeptical we actually get that cold as other guidance hasn't really shown it yet at that magnitude, but either way it does look like we will have our first day of highs sub-40F most likely (at least for high terrain)....if the GFS comes true then maybe sub-freezing.

Yeeeeah, ...far from sold to put it nicely..

I have been needling and annoying via phone IM, a met friend of mind unaffiliated with the forum.. how the party was supposed to be over when the wind bomb moved off and the front came through earlier in the week. 

Here we are not hardly 2.5 days later and it's warmer than it has been in over a month ...at least in my range or rt. poop.  I got 77 here now... DP of 59, too - like... in November is getting ludicrous. Willing to call a spade a spade here...  it's not imby either...it's like this up and done the EC and eastern OV

Point being, I wonder when the party really IS over...  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeeah, ...far from sold to put it nicely..

I have been needling and annoying via phone IM, a met friend of mind unaffiliated with the forum.. how the party was supposed to be over when the wind bomb moved off and the front came through earlier in the week. 

Here we are not hardly 2.5 days later and it's warmer than it has been in over a month ...at least in my range or rt. poop.  I got 77 here now... DP of 59, too - like... in November is getting ludicrous. Willing to call a spade a spade here...  it's not imby either...it's like this up and done the EC and eastern OV

Point being, I wonder when the party really IS over...  

As long as we keep getting these deep trough episode "folding" back underneath the EPO ridge, I think we can expect periodic SW flow warmth episodes....esp as the wavelengths are still relatively short right now...I'm sure you agree that as they lengthen, we'll probably see more cold bleeding over the top of a more drawn out gradient pattern and the ridge gets shunted more to the SE US and east into the Atlantic in the means. But we'll see...it's def been pretty deep with the troughs out west. Seattle had snow this morning...pretty early in the season to get snow that low out there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we keep getting these deep trough episode "folding" back underneath the EPO ridge, I think we can expect periodic SW flow warmth episodes....esp as the wavelengths are still relatively short right now...I'm sure you agree that as they lengthen, we'll probably see more cold bleeding over the top of a more drawn out gradient pattern and the ridge gets shunted more to the SE US and east into the Atlantic in the means. But we'll see...it's def been pretty deep with the troughs out west. Seattle had snow this morning...pretty early in the season to get snow that low out there.

oh sure...  hell, my tone in that was a bit tongue in cheek, of course. 

you know (humor) it's like the pattern is cold but is engineering a way to not be cold specifically and targeted here - i think if i had never posted that that are best hope for early season antics was between the 5th and the 12th, this would not be happening. 

oh wait - it's not the 5th yet.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

it'll go one of two ways ...  either it'll get longer on each end and really become a meaningful intra-monthly signal... Or, it'll normalize out to be a day or 43 highs that flurries and packing pellets when a virga strewn elevated squall moves over (which i kind of like that sort of wood-smoke day but that's a different discussion...). 

if it gets the longer version going than we'll look for other -

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I don't mind being warm until Thanksgiving....better not to blow our load on all the cold now, get all the warmth out of the way first so winter can stay cold. 

heh, that's 1989 ... that year was frustrating...  I was just starting classes and numbing my way to the train station to make them on time ... circa 7 am, walking in 30 mph 10 F stuff...   We got clocked with a white giving but december flipped and I think it was over by early January that year.  but there's other years like that - 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh, that's 1989 ... that year was frustrating...  I was just starting classes and numbing my way to the train station to make them on time ... circa 7 am, walking in 30 mph 10 F stuff...   We got clocked with a white giving but december flipped and I think it was over by early January that year.  but there's other years like that - 

1989 was ridiculous from about mid-Nov through the end of December...coldest December on record by a mile for just about every New England site...it crushed the 2nd place coldest December by about 3F. Then the rest of winter was a massive torch. Though we still did get some well-timed snow events in Jan/Feb.

 

I'd def be concerned about this season if we keep torching all November, but I'm think we'll get our share of cold shots. We have the EPO/WPO regions on our side, and it's the N PAC in November that seems to have a high correlation to winter...our temperatures are obviously a proxy to that, but I'd rather focus on the source itself over the proxy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, Noive features the most drastic drop in climo from start to finish.

ORH at 1,000 feet doesn't fall below an average high of 50F until November 12th I believe. It's easy to get into winter mode mentally a little prematurely in November because we do see some pretty winter-esque cold shots at times and the legit threat of some snow every once in a while....but it's really a pretty mild first couple weeks. It does drop quickly though...by the end of the month, the avg high is 41F at ORH.

 

That said, the first few days of this month are clearly a torch...but we'll probably fall back pretty hard on the departures over the next week to 10 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1989 was ridiculous from about mid-Nov through the end of December...coldest December on record by a mile for just about every New England site...it crushed the 2nd place coldest December by about 3F. Then the rest of winter was a massive torch. Though we still did get some well-timed snow events in Jan/Feb.

 

I'd def be concerned about this season if we keep torching all November, but I'm think we'll get our share of cold shots. We have the EPO/WPO regions on our side, and it's the N PAC in November that seems to have a high correlation to winter...our temperatures are obviously a proxy to that, but I'd rather focus on the source itself over the proxy.

That December dumped 6-12 inches of snow over Charleston, SC area with 18+ inches spots barely across the border along the coast of southeast North Carolina. My family still have pictures of devastated towns around Charleston with widespread snow-coated damage from Hurricane Hugo. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

That December dumped 6-12 inches of snow over Charleston, SC area with 18+ inches spots barely across the border along the coast of southeast North Carolina. My family still have pictures of devastated towns around Charleston with widespread snow-coated damage from Hurricane Hugo. 

Wasn't that like on Christmas eve or something too? I thought I remember it being right before Xmas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wasn't that like on Christmas eve or something too? I thought I remember it being right before Xmas.

Yup! Started very late on the 22nd, with snow falling on the 23rd mostly. Charleston also recorded the coldest high temperature of 20th century at 20 degrees Fahrenheit. 

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...