OSUmetstud Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You'd be hard pressed to find a month with good ridging in the EPO region that ended up a torch in the northern tier of the CONUS. December 1998 might be the closest example but that month got cold in a lot of the northwest....unlike what the CFS is showing. 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You'd be hard pressed to find a month with good ridging in the EPO region that ended up a torch in the northern tier of the CONUS. December 1998 might be the closest example but that month got cold in a lot of the northwest....unlike what the CFS is showing. It could be under-bleeding the sfc cold south but the 500mb pattern definitely implies a considerably farther north gradient than 2007. The gradient is super intense. Its an interesting and odd look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I couldn't care less what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I couldn't care less what it shows. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Everyone knows the CFS blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nickles and Dimes like you preached in 15...preached that all the way to a Blizzard lol....Maybe you can do the same this year? Keep harping to not plan on a snowy year...maybe the reverse happens again. All we’re saying is don’t be too quick to buy into some of these ideas on here that a great cold snowy winter is coming. Enter that cave at own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All we’re saying is don’t be too quick to buy into some of these ideas on here that a great cold snowy winter is coming. Enter that cave at own risk Who said a great winter is coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It could be under-bleeding the sfc cold south but the 500mb pattern definitely implies a considerably farther north gradient than 2007. The gradient is super intense. Its an interesting and odd look. Yeah that's kind of what I was getting at...there's probably something incorrect in the pattern it depicts...either it's not dropping the heights far enough south in response to the EPO and Aleutian ridging...or it isn't low enough with the heights in AK. It definitely looks weird. Either way I probably wouldn't put too much stock in it yet. Dec '84 is kind of a decent match to the CFS, but again, a lot of cold got into the n plains and PAC NW...it's hard to find a year where you had the ridging up into the EPO/Bering Strait region and also had above normal heights across all the CONUS...I can't find one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Everyone knows the CFS blows But it doesn’t have to be totally wrong to still be a crap pattern and winter here. Lots to be desired with that depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All we’re saying is don’t be too quick to buy into some of these ideas on here that a great cold snowy winter is coming. Enter that cave at own risk Who said it was going to a cold and snowy winter? And who is "We're?" You're the only one(or one of the very few here) who is poo-pooing the winter that isn't here yet. I am not thinking it's going to be an above normal snow season. But I'm also not worried it's going to be a below one either. So perhaps you should be the one to not be too quick to buy into the ratter idea as well? I'll take a normal snow season...that's fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who said great winter is coming. Just me. But he knows none of the mets and vets on here are saying bombs away. He sees one cfs map and uses it to remind everyone hes going full blown ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who said great winter is coming. I don't know where he is getting that from what i have seen on here, My thinking is around avg until i see otherwise, I always lean to that starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Probably will be another sub par snow retention season. Hopefully not as bad as last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hazey said: Probably will be another sub par snow retention season. Hopefully not as bad as last year. Why do you think it "probably" will be a poor retention season? Just baseline background warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Why do you think it "probably" will be a poor retention season? Just baseline background warmth? Sounds like more negative nellie posts...DIT defensive mechanisms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Sounds like more negative nellie posts...DIT defensive mechanisms You have no need to worry. I'm certain your area will have a banner snow retention season. Unforgettable actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Interesting look on the medium range Euro....it folds the EPO block over so much that it actually becomes sort of a PNA ridge in western Canada....that makes the flow a lot more meridional in the east so this run will probably be a lot colder for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Interesting look on the medium range Euro....it folds the EPO block over so much that it actually becomes sort of a PNA ridge in western Canada....that makes the flow a lot more meridional in the east so this run will probably be a lot colder for next weekend. Yeah with a well timed s/w moving south of the region, some folks might see their first flakes. The period is worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Powderboy413 said: Everyone knows the CFS blows Knowing is easy, accepting is difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 So far, no signs of the one eyed weenie over AK. All I need to see to start Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So far, no signs of the one eyed weenie over AK. All I need to see to start Novie. Yeah I take that as a good sign...in several winters, we started seeing it show up consistently in late November...not everytime, but quite a few of the ratters. So as long as we don't see it, it sort of loads the dice for me...if we can eliminate some of the ratter progressions, then we are naturally left with a better array of evolutions to choose from. Unfortunately though, in New England, we just don't have a lot of "golden nugget" type index numbers or ENSO states that scream above average or below average snow...maybe weak Nino says go above avg in SNE and strong Nino says go below average most spots...strong Nina isn't the greatest either. But otherwise, it's kind of just "sit back and see how the chips fall"...we're close to the battle zone in a lot of these influencing variables. All else equal, we def want a -AO...but as we've seen many times in the past, we can survive without it. The two La Ninas that come to mind where "we got away with it" are '75-'76 and '07-'08 (which admittedly was uglier down in CT/RI). '74-'75 was also not all that bad in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 First forecast for Novie. The pattern change begins on the 16th and is complete by the 24th, colder looks increasing end of month and Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: First forecast for Novie. The pattern change begins on the 16th and is complete by the 24th, colder looks increasing end of month and Dec Going out on a limb there thinking it should get colder as we head into Dec... Sorry couldn't help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Local mets here on WGME13 did there winter forecast, Typical La Nina similar to last year, Above avg snow with slightly above temps, Early start late finish is there call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: Local mets here on WGME13 did there winter forecast, Typical La Nina similar to last year, Above avg snow with slightly above temps, Early start late finish is there call. Nothing wrong with that idea if it works out!! That sounds great!! Hope it starts early too...especially in Maine. Hoping N. Aroostook gets the goods by Xmas this year like they did last year....got a New Sled to pick up in Caribou on 12/26, and would love to be able to break her in that week while I'm up there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: First forecast for Novie. The pattern change begins on the 16th and is complete by the 24th, colder looks increasing end of month and Dec My take is 180 opposite. Very mild Dec with little snow . Most snow waits till late 2nd half winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: My take is 180 opposite. Very mild Dec with little snow . Most snow waits till late 2nd half winter '98-'99 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: My take is 180 opposite. Very mild Dec with little snow . Most snow waits till late 2nd half winter Euro weeklies on board for a colder end to Novie, it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro weeklies on board for a colder end to Novie, it's coming Maybe but that product is terrible. Verification is poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Going out on a limb there thinking it should get colder as we head into Dec... Sorry couldn't help myself. Relative to normal, there picnic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe but that product is terrible. Verification is poor Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.