Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Might be weenie maps but I have no idea where this take 1/3rd off idea started. People keep posting how wrong those maps are, well maybe 4 days out but I'd reexamine Sun 0Z because they have been pretty damn good close in. 

When you see the mean wind progs over the interior you wouldn't get the impression of 70mph gusts. I like the 1/3 slashing.

[Damage In Tolland]

57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

None of the weenie maps were overly impressive for Tolland so I defaulted to ENE.

I don’t take them verbatim... the thing to glean is a damaging wind event of 60+ for the entire 6 State Region is very much a possibility with widespread infrastructure issues 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

When you see the mean wind progs over the interior you wouldn't get the impression of 70mph gusts. I like the 1/3 slashing.

We slash inland.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We slash inland.

The models def don't handle the land friction very well on winds...I remember seeing this even back during Sandy and Irene...you can probably slice them a little less right on the windward facing coast lines though...and I also agree that convection may be juicing the solutions a bit versus what happens in reality. There will def prob be some decent winds for someone, but the widespread hurricane force winds have me a little skeptical.

 

They are still fun to look at. Again, reminds me of the Wilma phase solutions in 2005...a few runs had like 80 knots at 950mb in ORH, lol. I remember one had PVD with likwe 100 knots at 1,000 feet off the ground.

[CT Rain]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t take them verbatim... the thing to glean is a damaging wind event of 60+ for the entire 6 State Region is very much a possibility with widespread infrastructure issues 

I think the damaging wind threat has decreased for our area with the tick east and the possible separate tropical/non tropical evolution.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is it me, or does that goofy EP/NP value that they now use in lieu of the EPO seem backwards...ie, the positive values seem more favorable?

Seasons like 2014-2015 and 2002-2003 are very positive.

Confusing.

You don't even need them Ray ... Just look at the anomaly products, the ones with color coding... if there is positives anywhere around the Alaska sector, figure for some perversion (or less) of a -EPO(+EPO)

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We slash inland.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The models def don't handle the land friction very well on winds...I remember seeing this even back during Sandy and Irene...you can probably slice them a little less right on the windward facing coast lines though...and I also agree that convection may be juicing the solutions a bit versus what happens in reality. There will def prob be some decent winds for someone, but the widespread hurricane force winds have me a little skeptical.

 

They are still fun to look at. Again, reminds me of the Wilma phase solutions in 2005...a few runs had like 80 knots at 950mb in ORH, lol. I remember one had PVD with likwe 100 knots at 1,000 feet off the ground.

And they definitely are too high over the high terrain. Sure it's higher up, but I think it exaggerates that as well. I remember the Wilma fun. We got a decent storm out of it, but yeah...no 90 kts going across my scalp lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

oh, K, ...  yeah, I just mentioned the wind look for that deal on Sunday.

the negative turning and height falls is intriguing for me.  That looks like a trop. fold table setting, though I haven't seen anything other than just those appeals. 

the GFS' pressure pattern is weaker than the Euro.  i think with the heights actually falling and the wind max traversing 1.5 or so E of the baroclinic axis, that low has a chance to be deeper. 

if that correction works out... the back side wind burst is where I'm wondering.  instability may combine with rapid pressure rise and any transfer mechanics to realy give the isoll. wind a kick. 

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

When you see the mean wind progs over the interior you wouldn't get the impression of 70mph gusts. I like the 1/3 slashing.

We will capture the 0Z run Sunday and compare actual on Tuesday rather than making a statement without science.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think the damaging wind threat has decreased for our area with the tick east and the possible separate tropical/non tropical evolution.

GFS ?

[Typhoon Tip]

actually, I got my intervals wrong when I looked at the GFS... The 00z had 974 mb passing over coastal regions ..which technically is bombogen deepening rates comparing the 24 hour evolution.  

that only adds to my back side restorative wind concerns there...  CAA acting alone is sometimes over done but this situation may get some assist -

the other thing as Ryan and others mentioned, whether there is something more tropical embedded in there.  that does alter the landscape a little if that takes place.  I hunch that this event is probably convectively fed-back from 72 hours on in those solutions. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I think a few mets are missing that for interior areas the big winds come on backside out of NW with rise/fall couplet

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think a few mets are missing that for interior areas the big winds come on backside out of NW with rise/fall couplet

maybe ... 

i wouldn't speak for other meteorologists in current tow but we've also seen this sort of set up a few times end up a bit less than warned so just keep that in mind.  it's just a point that it would be remiss to not bring it up - that's all. 

i have also seen winds gust to 70 mph in underbelly bombs, too - albeit rare ..it just seems that nailing those set ups the do versus looking like they will, but don't, ...that's obviously the 64 million. 

[CT Rain]

The ECMWF (unlikely to verify) would be devastating for coastal Maine. Hurricane force winds with mega storm surge around Portland.

I'm thinking some of these models are doing too much with the tropical low and struggling with the interaction between it and the main baroclinic low. 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think a few mets are missing that for interior areas the big winds come on backside out of NW with rise/fall couplet

Apparently we have never had winds over 60 inland

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Apparently we have never had winds over 60 inland

Much different down your way of course but I can attest that outside of isolated severe events,  NW MA is where wind goes to die.  MPM is at 1000' and I bet he doesn't gust over 35mph with this next system.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Apparently we have never had winds over 60 inland

Maybe those maps would've had 150mph gusts in Nov '50?

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Apparently we have never had winds over 60 inland

They seem to think it can’t happen. If it tracks over CT obviously the banging winds are backside . Still HRV options on table though 

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Apparently we have never had winds over 60 inland

It's not common, that's for sure.  Hell, my peak winds since I moved to where I am are only in the low 50s.  I see a couple rogue gust #s from April that I am skeptical of. A 71mph and a 94 mph gust.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTAN/2009/4/3/DailyHistory.html

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTAN/2007/4/27/DailyHistory.html

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Maybe those maps would've had 150mph gusts in Nov '50?

And 125 for 12/31/1962, the only winds of my experience that challenge 1950. 
The groundhog day sou'easter in 1976 (the storm that drowned BGR) had gusts to 115 in the eastern part of Penobscot Bay (Stonington?) but I don't know how much of that reached inland.  About 50 in Ft. Kent as temps dropped from 44 to -6 in 5 hours - CAR pressure hit 957 mb, much lower than anything I've seen progged for Sunday-Monday.

Edit:  Just noted mention of a 960 model in the screamer thread, so delete the "much", above.

[Ginx snewx]

Feb 10 like with that 955 causing 92mph in GOMaine then raking inland NH Maine

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2013-03.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwicgv765Y7XAhXK7YMKHXqVA5UQFggmMAA&usg=AOvVaw3uQQHblhASCQprTtUaHQDT

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Feb 10 like with that 955 causing 92mph in GOMaine then raking inland NH Maine

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2013-03.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwicgv765Y7XAhXK7YMKHXqVA5UQFggmMAA&usg=AOvVaw3uQQHblhASCQprTtUaHQDT

Nitpik:  Looks closer to 975 than 955.  
Having said that, many thanks for the link - a very interesting report.  I'd no idea that NH had had such widespread outages.  In Maine, where windspeed reports seemed as great or greater than those from NH, I think far fewer customers were in the dark (wish the report had noted the number) and not in the same league as Jan. 1998 when CMP alone got up in the 330k range (ironically, including their headquarters building in Augusta.)  However far the winds reached inland, they didn't get to my place.  I doubt there was anything above 20 mph during that incredibly frustrating slopfest.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nitpik:  Looks closer to 975 than 955.  
Having said that, many thanks for the link - a very interesting report.  I'd no idea that NH had had such widespread outages.  In Maine, where windspeed reports seemed as great or greater than those from NH, I think far fewer customers were in the dark (wish the report had noted the number) and not in the same league as Jan. 1998 when CMP alone got up in the 330k range (ironically, including their headquarters building in Augusta.)  However far the winds reached inland, they didn't get to my place.  I doubt there was anything above 20 mph during that incredibly frustrating slopfest.

We tracked an off shore meso at 955 that went through Cape Cod up over the Boston buoys, knocked out the GOM buoy system,  caused a tidal reverse at Boston.  A special night on Eastern with Phil, Eck and Messenger

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

We tracked an off shore meso at 955 that went through Cape Cod up over the Boston buoys, knocked out the GOM buoy system,  caused a tidal reverse at Boston.  A special night on Eastern with Phil, Eck and Messenger

Thanks for clarifying, though I'm a bit surprised that data did not make it into the analysis.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Thanks for clarifying, though I'm a bit surprised that data did not make it into the analysis.

I am too...if it got down that low, it escaped detection on the Cape ASOS stations and KBOS. I did find as low as 972mb, which was at most of those stations. Unfortunately that thread was back on easternUSwx, which is no longer accessible. So I can't go back and check it.

[eekuasepinniW]

2/26/10  

[OceanStWx]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Very easy. Those wind maps are over-inflated. I'm not sure what algorithm is used, but they have overestimated winds in the past.

For starters I don't think any model is explicitly forecasting wind gusts. In general, graphics take the forecast wind speeds and adjust them using some gust factor. I'm doubtful there is even an algorithm involved (like looking at mixing heights, etc), but instead just uses a standard factor like 2x the wind speed.

That's how you get the Euro with 30-35 kt wind speeds gusting to 75 kts.

[CoastalWx]

Big time -PNA coming. That will probably give frozen precip to the PAC NW, while we get some sort of near to AN temps. The dateline ridging retros so we'll need to reload the pattern sometime in Novie hopefully. The good news is that no one eyed cyclops is seen. Just typical Nina.

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big time -PNA coming. That will probably give frozen precip to the PAC NW, while we get some sort of near to AN temps. The dateline ridging retros so we'll need to reload the pattern sometime in Novie hopefully. The good news is that no one eyed cyclops is seen. Just typical Nina.

But AN to much AN Novembers in years past have not yielded good winters in New England