weathafella Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Congrats on the house. When did you move? He’s got 200’ on me now. I’m selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: He’s got 200’ on me now. I’m selling What a sicko he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What a sicko he is Will owes it to himself to live in Savoy for a winter or some other place at like 2,000ft...he's got the sickness, errr passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I would love to get a winter in out there at 2K. Or somehow up in the Whites above Jackson at like 1500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Is it me, or does that goofy EP/NP value that they now use in lieu of the EPO seem backwards...ie, the positive values seem more favorable? Seasons like 2014-2015 and 2002-2003 are very positive. Confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it me, or does that goofy EP/NP value that they now use in lieu of the EPO seem backwards...ie, the positive values seem more favorable? Seasons like 2014-2015 and 2002-2003 are very positive. Confusing. Yes. I wish they did not change it. You just have to remember a +EP/NP is basically a -EPO. Nobody even calls it The EP either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yes. I wish they did not change it. You just have to remember a +EP/NP is basically a -EPO. Nobody even calls it The EP either lol. Dumb...any sites still calcite monthly EPO values...ie the old index? Some of those calculations are funny.....95-96 was a +PDO, but -PNA....strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Apparently they take the holidays off...no values for the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it me, or does that goofy EP/NP value that they now use in lieu of the EPO seem backwards...ie, the positive values seem more favorable? Seasons like 2014-2015 and 2002-2003 are very positive. Confusing. What are you talking about? ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Oh @Ginx snewx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Oh @Ginx snewx NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What are you talking about? ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt I know that site. Those are daily values. What I am talking about is that the NP/EP index is inverse to the old EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 0z GFS a little further east and a little stronger with the system on Sunday. Still looking like a power house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Yo whatup? Anyone considering jumping off buildings considering the LR GFS pattern for early NOVEY? What a disasta that would be. Edit: 2nd week of November. Man i miss Mass. Wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Euro is a crusher for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Quick glance looks like Euro has cane force gusts for a fair part of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Quick glance looks like Euro has cane force gusts for a fair part of SNE Let's get this system out of the way so we can focus on the real sou'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Diving into it a bit this morning on the long term, but it looks like a nice little anticyclonic wave break event will pinch off a PV streamer over the next couple of days. It's the interaction of that streamer with the the tropical convection that kicks off the frontal wave cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Let's get this system out of the way so we can focus on the real sou'easter. Fun run in the deform band this morning. Soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 The tropical convection looks like it generates a low level PV anomaly, and when the upper level PV streamer phases vertically with the low level anomaly, it's off to the races with the frontal wave. CMC, GFS, and Euro all show similar evolution and a LLJ rapidly strengthening east of the low center. GFS forecast soundings mix down nearly 70 knots Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 In before Ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: In before Ginxy Talk about a triple bun solution. I'm going to take the under on 112 knots, but this looks like a dynamic system. More so than the current one. I think the injection of the tropical convection is really juicing the deterministic solutions, but at the same time that sort of rapid cyclogenesis is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 That tropical may mess things up. Looks like any strong winds will be mostly east of that feature. Unless, it phases and becomes a stemwinder baroclinic low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: In before Ginxy Can you post SNE max winds instead of NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can you post SNE max winds instead of NNE? Given these are weenie maps and you need to take a third off (like NAM QPF) it's lots of 40-50 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can you post SNE max winds instead of NNE? It would be nice to be at Pit 2 per that map. I'm anticipating winds akin to a strong Jan. CAA here in GC. Already deep into stick season here, lessening damage threat. Decent rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can you post SNE max winds instead of NNE? We important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 None of the weenie maps were overly impressive for Tolland so I defaulted to ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: None of the weenie maps were overly impressive for Tolland so I defaulted to ENE. Might be weenie maps but I have no idea where this take 1/3rd off idea started. People keep posting how wrong those maps are, well maybe 4 days out but I'd reexamine Sun 0Z because they have been pretty damn good close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Might be weenie maps but I have no idea where this take 1/3rd off idea started. People keep posting how wrong those maps are, well maybe 4 days out but I'd reexamine Sun 0Z because they have been pretty damn good close in. Very easy. Those wind maps are over-inflated. I'm not sure what algorithm is used, but they have overestimated winds in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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