Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A humid -5 at BDL so far this September.  

12z gfs has Augusta not dropping below 49 thru 9/27, with almost all days 70s-low 80s and little rain.  If that verifies, the month would finish AN.  Of the 384 hours, about 360 show H8 temps between 12-15C, the rest 10C or 16C.  I'll believe that flat a 16-day forecast when I see it.

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

12z gfs has Augusta not dropping below 49 thru 9/27, with almost all days 70s-low 80s and little rain.  If that verifies, the month would finish AN.  Of the 384 hours, about 360 show H8 temps between 12-15C, the rest 10C or 16C.  I'll believe that flat a 16-day forecast when I see it.

A few weeks of 70s would be near perfect this time of year... or in other words, it would be just like July and August.  As if there were any question, I'm pretty impressed with this sustained

[Typhoon Tip]

70s ??   try 80s - 

 

[dendrite]

I would think mostly 70s in NNE in the LR...even here. Lots of low 80s CON-south.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

70s ??   try 80s - 

 

We barely got 80s this summer (84F was the highest temperature after June 15th)... I don't see it all the sudden rattling off two weeks of 80s though I could see a spot 80-82F afternoon if 850mb temps actually get up into that +16C or greater zone.

Since August 4th, there have been only 3 days that hit 80F here.  Highest temp in first 11 days of September is 74F, with an average high of 64F so far this month (that's going to be rising with this upcoming pattern).

At some point this has to change, it can't sustain itself and looks like we'll finally get a string of above normal days.   

MVL/1V4 are -6.5 and even BTV is -5 for the first 11 days of September.  Even yesterday was mild-ish and put up a -5 across the board.  The last 30 days have been ridiculous relative to normal going back to mid-August.  It's been very hard in recent summers to get these type of sustained departures that aren't just -1 or -2... but like -5 to -7 over a 30 day period.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

oh  heh... yea i wouldn't have a clue up ur way without getting into specifics about ur climo and balancing those facets against the face of present modeled synoptic evolution... 

but down our way? that's a warm look!

[scoob40]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I would think mostly 70s in NNE in the LR...even here. Lots of low 80s CON-south.

70 at best in MPM's digs ?

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh  heh... yea i wouldn't have a clue up ur way without getting into specifics about ur climo and balancing those facets against the face of present modeled synoptic evolution... 

but down our way? that's a warm look!

Haha yeah I should say that's a warm look up here too!  Looking at GFS 850s that's one of the more sustained runs of >12C of the entire warm season.  

The one product that really shows it is that 10-day normalized deviation map that the folks at GEM make for Canada.  All summer it's been negative just north of New England which is seen in the summer departures here.  But for the next 10 days it goes to +2 to +3, which is the first time I've seen that since early June.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We barely got 80s this summer (84F was the highest temperature after June 15th)... I don't see it all the sudden rattling off two weeks of 80s though I could see a spot 80-82F afternoon if 850mb temps actually get up into that +16C or greater zone.

Since August 4th, there have been only 3 days that hit 80F here.  Highest temp in first 11 days of September is 74F, with an average high of 64F so far this month (that's going to be rising with this upcoming pattern).

At some point this has to change, it can't sustain itself and looks like we'll finally get a string of above normal days.   

MVL/1V4 are -6.5 and even BTV is -5 for the first 11 days of September.  Even yesterday was mild-ish and put up a -5 across the board.  The last 30 days have been ridiculous relative to normal going back to mid-August.  It's been very hard in recent summers to get these type of sustained departures that aren't just -1 or -2... but like -5 to -7 over a 30 day period.

 

Our warmest June 14 and onward is 83, occurring while we were across the pond last month.  Average temps Aug. 24 thru yesterday (19 days) are 66/43, max of 72 and only 4 days even reaching 70.  As long as dews remain low so my place drops into the 40s (or close) each morning, it will have a hard time breaking 80 here, unless the models crank H8s to 17-18 or so.

[Typhoon Tip]

The main wild-card in the mid and extended ranges is what to do with Jose over the western Atlantic...  

Removing that factor ... the blend of the operational runs way above normal temperature ... if not historically so.  

I was impressed (though not so much for the Day 9-ness of it...) with the GFS shredding off a plume of Sonoran air sourcing and wafting up 576 dm thickness after September 15!  Those high thickness are more doable on a straight S Bahaman pipe patterns ..but not so much on a straight up continental source this late in the year. Until we get that inside of four days I'll leave 'wow' out of it -

[Damage In Tolland]

Good Lord are we in a torch pattern thru the end of the month. Nothing but huge positive departures and humidity . Knew it..just knew it. And it locks in all fall too

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Good Lord are we in a torch pattern thru the end of the month. Nothing but huge positive departures and humidity . Knew it..just knew it. And it locks in all fall too

just fantastic news, perfect

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Good Lord are we in a torch pattern thru the end of the month. Nothing but huge positive departures and humidity . Knew it..just knew it. And it locks in all fall too

60s and 70s with comfy dews FTW. Latest freezes ever?

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

60s and 70s with comfy dews FTW. Latest freezes ever?

Humid with low-mid 80's thru next week except for the Jose day

[Typhoon Tip]

Seein' as everyone asks and adores my opinion in matters...

I hope it's like that until ...oh say November 4th ... Only then do we get a 'reality snap' and some hard frosts/freezes...followed by a full on commitment to winter pattern and fun for the Holidays. Granted...that won't happen that way because there are metaphysical forces that run amok and get off on f'ing everything up.. 

Seriously, ...should anyone really f'n care what it does between now an then...?  Unless there's a comet impact impending doom... who cares - 

Ur not getting winter during all of a week or two from the last calendar date of SUMMER SUMMER summer ...jesus.  cold anomaly?  you 'want' cold anomalies now?!  why? is it because on some psycho-babble level you need that feel to get you closer to realizing some delusion where you don't have to actually wait for it..haha. I don't get the need to "sound" lament-ish over a warm pattern during these calendar days and weeks.  

 

 

[tamarack]

Seriously, ...should anyone really f'n care what it does between now an then...?  Unless there's a comet impact impending doom... who cares -

Sure.  Initial reds point to AN colors this fall, so I hope we avoid windy downpours for about the next 3 weeks - let the leaves fall on their own, rather than getting ripped loose by gales. 

And I haven't seen much on here except happiness over a streak of calm AN temps in mid-Sept, except for some hyper-enthusiasm from NE CT.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seriously, ...should anyone really f'n care what it does between now an then...?  Unless there's a comet impact impending doom... who cares - 

Ur not getting winter during all of a week or two from the last calendar date of SUMMER SUMMER summer ...jesus.  cold anomaly?  you 'want' cold anomalies now?!  why? is it because on some psycho-babble level you need that feel to get you closer to realizing some delusion where you don't have to actually wait for it..haha. I don't get the need to "sound" lament-ish over a warm pattern during these calendar days and weeks.  

 

 

lol this made me chuckle.

I think it's more that when someone wanted high heat and humidity we got cold anomalies, now they are getting their big above normal pattern that will prolong the boring weather of 74-84F type highs we had all summer.

If we've learned anything there is someone here who deathly hates boring nice weather with sunshine and 70s.  They either want it 90F+ or under 50F.  

[powderfreak]

First one of these maps with red over us in about 3 months. All summer we had our pocket of blue.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol this made me chuckle.

I think it's more that when someone wanted high heat and humidity we got cold anomalies, now they are getting their big above normal pattern that will prolong the boring weather of 74-84F type highs we had all summer.

If we've learned anything there is someone here who deathly hates boring nice weather with sunshine and 70s.  They either want it 90F+ or under 50F.  

oh I know - i'm feelin' straw-man hostile this mornign- muah ahhaha

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

First one of these maps with red over us in about 3 months. All summer we had our pocket of blue.

that could set up a huge -NAO crash about 2.5 weeks later...  

[dendrite]

Should get nice and torchy just when Kevin turns into a gypsy moth.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Should get nice and torchy just when Kevin turns into a gypsy moth.

He will be predicting snowstorms and days and days of 30s by Halloween...during the gypsy moth transition seasons, he tends to be about 2 months ahead of climo....expecting 70s in March and 30s in October.

[Damage In Tolland]

How are those here that uninstalled and were forecasting cool and COC k all month doing with these high dews all week and next week?

[ApacheTrout]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How are those here that uninstalled and were forecasting cool and COC k all month doing with these high dews all week and next week?

They probably are doing something incredibly complex, like opening windows.

[powderfreak]

It's like Mother Nature has engineered this to be one long continuation of similar temps for months on end.

Below normal all summer with average highs in the 70s, then as normals drop, we bring in the above normal pattern to keep highs in the 70s deep into fall.

[JC-CT]

They probably are doing something incredibly complex, like opening windows.

I'm glad I have my ACs still installed.

[powderfreak]

55 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

11 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

They probably are doing something incredibly complex, like opening windows.
 

I'm glad I have my ACs still installed.

I think its similar to summer... those who need AC regularly in the summer still need it now.  Those of who don't need it in the summer, aren't using it now.  That's like fortune cookie speak about AC.

I've got 65F now and the last report an hour ago was 68F at MVL...perfectly comfortable with a window fan circulating that cooler air inside.  Our air conditioner is radiational cooling, lol.  It'll drop a quick 5-7F/hr until it hits the crossover temp....just stick a fan in a window to blow that air inside and its just like turning on the AC, lol.

Looks like the coastal regions are getting some cooler weather off the Atlantic.  Poor folks in the well-mixed BTV area have a climate similar to IJD.

[JC-CT]

I think its similar to summer... those who need AC regularly in the summer still need it now.  Those of who don't need it in the summer, aren't using it now.  That's like fortune cookie speak about AC.

I've got 65F now and the last report an hour ago was 68F at MVL...perfectly comfortable with a window fan circulating that cooler air inside.  Our air conditioner is radiational cooling, lol.  It'll drop a quick 5-7F/hr until it hits the crossover temp....just stick a fan in a window to blow that air inside and its just like turning on the AC, lol.

Looks like the coastal regions are getting some cooler weather off the Atlantic.  Poor folks in the well-mixed BTV area have a climate similar to IJD.

I'm at 70 outside. I'll run the AC to get it down to 68, just because.

[powderfreak]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Just now, powderfreak said:

I think its similar to summer... those who need AC regularly in the summer still need it now.  Those of who don't need it in the summer, aren't using it now.  That's like fortune cookie speak about AC.

I've got 65F now and the last report an hour ago was 68F at MVL...perfectly comfortable with a window fan circulating that cooler air inside.  Our air conditioner is radiational cooling, lol.  It'll drop a quick 5-7F/hr until it hits the crossover temp....just stick a fan in a window to blow that air inside and its just like turning on the AC, lol.

Looks like the coastal regions are getting some cooler weather off the Atlantic.  Poor folks in the well-mixed BTV area have a climate similar to IJD.


 

I'm at 70 outside. I'll run the AC to get it down to 68, just because.

Ha, that's funny as I use 68F inside as sort of the "comfort line"... if it gets above that in the afternoon sunshine (I've got a bunch of almost floor to ceiling windows that will cook the place if I don't put the shades down when the wife and I are at work) then 68F is what I try to get it down under in the evening before I turn off the fans.

[kdxken]

" I think its similar to summer... those who need AC regularly in the summer still need it now.  Those of who don't need it in the summer, aren't using it now "

 

Yup.