RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Typical gfs east and euro more tucked. Split the difference this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Typical gfs east and euro more tucked. Split the difference this far out. We want a tuckie tuckie. Keep tucking west so it goes over NYC up the HRV. That makes more sense given the setup and negative tilt so far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 What does this mean for temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We want a tuckie tuckie. Keep tucking west so it goes over NYC up the HRV. That makes more sense given the setup and negative tilt so far west I want to be on the dirty side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: What does this mean for temps? Nothing except it'll be humid due to tropical influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems way overdone. The windfield will rapidly weaken and expand once it makes it north of 40N. At this point my hypothetical cut-off for 50 mph + max gusts would be from Portland ME, down to Newport RI to the CT/RI border at the coast. Very Low confidence obviously, but that's where I think the damaging wind potential currently exists. Have to strongly favor areas in the coastal plain, especially further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 So this would be coming in on the 29th? Can think of two freakish systems in recent years on that date. Do we manage the trifecta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Seems way overdone. The windfield will rapidly weaken and expand once it makes it north of 40N. At this point my hypothetical cut-off for 50 mph + max gusts would be from Portland ME, down to Newport RI to the CT/RI border at the coast. Very Low confidence obviously, but that's where I think the damaging wind potential currently exists. Have to strongly favor areas in the coastal plain, especially further north. Unless the storm intensifies into a tropical storm down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoth said: So this would be coming in on the 29th? Can think of two freakish systems in recent years on that date. Do we manage the trifecta? Good point. Wouldn't that be Coincidental lol....We'll see?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Seems way overdone. The windfield will rapidly weaken and expand once it makes it north of 40N. At this point my hypothetical cut-off for 50 mph + max gusts would be from Portland ME, down to Newport RI to the CT/RI border at the coast. Very Low confidence obviously, but that's where I think the damaging wind potential currently exists. Have to strongly favor areas in the coastal plain, especially further north. Plus, I'm not sure Euro is accounting for friction due to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Seems way overdone. The windfield will rapidly weaken and expand once it makes it north of 40N. At this point my hypothetical cut-off for 50 mph + max gusts would be from Portland ME, down to Newport RI to the CT/RI border at the coast. Very Low confidence obviously, but that's where I think the damaging wind potential currently exists. Have to strongly favor areas in the coastal plain, especially further north. Way overdone is an understatement in my opinion, that should come back to Earth in the next few runs. Those numbers are comical. Unless this does turn into some powerful tropical system on its way up this way...but I wouldn't be banking on that at this point. It'll be interesting to see what todays runs show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Reminds me of the couple runs about 3-4 days out before Wilma phased in with a neg tilted trough and the models tried to give us like 100 mph winds. We probably ended up with 40mph gusts....but the interior of NNE and NY State did get a nice snow event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 6z GEFS mean is a lot further west than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Reminds me of the couple runs about 3-4 days out before Wilma phased in with a neg tilted trough and the models tried to give us like 100 mph winds. We probably ended up with 40mph gusts....but the interior of NNE and NY State did get a nice snow event out of it. 40 mph gusts sounds about right for this too...unless your out on the extreme south/southeast coast. But looks like a good rain event is quite possible either way...which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I like the vibe with activity ramping up. Bodes well moving forward into the cold months, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I like the vibe with activity ramping up. Bodes well moving forward into the cold months, imo. Yeah will look forward to 970mb cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah will look forward to 970mb cutters. Cant wait for our Xmas Eve damaging sou’easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Cant wait for our Xmas Eve damaging sou’easter. It's the gift that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Seems way overdone. The windfield will rapidly weaken and expand once it makes it north of 40N. At this point my hypothetical cut-off for 50 mph + max gusts would be from Portland ME, down to Newport RI to the CT/RI border at the coast. Very Low confidence obviously, but that's where I think the damaging wind potential currently exists. Have to strongly favor areas in the coastal plain, especially further north. This is awfully specific considering we really don't have much of an idea where the surface low tracks and how strong it will be. Lots to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Seems way overdone. The windfield will rapidly weaken and expand once it makes it north of 40N. At this point my hypothetical cut-off for 50 mph + max gusts would be from Portland ME, down to Newport RI to the CT/RI border at the coast. Very Low confidence obviously, but that's where I think the damaging wind potential currently exists. Have to strongly favor areas in the coastal plain, especially further north. If MBY receives a 76mph wind gust, I'll move to Tampa, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I like the vibe with activity ramping up. Bodes well moving forward into the cold months, imo. This. I don't give a rat's a$$ about the sensible appeal.....just like to see big lows starting crank. Nice rainy, blustery day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah will look forward to 970mb cutters. lol. You know what I mean. Unless you think warm bone dry Oct Nov is better for DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 12z GFS a bit west of 6z with a 3-6 hr pounding across the coastline. Extremely heavy rain eastern NY into adjacent western MA and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS a bit west of 6z with a 3-6 hr pounding across the coastline. Extremely heavy rain eastern NY into adjacent western MA and CT. Pretty impressive wind for Cape to Cape Ann verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS a bit west of 6z with a 3-6 hr pounding across the coastline. Extremely heavy rain eastern NY into adjacent western MA and CT. Don’t forget about Thur night first for the EMA crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoth said: Pretty impressive wind for Cape to Cape Ann verbatim. Cray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cray Wind profile certainly has the look of a transitioning tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 James blown into the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Build an ark on the CMC. Nice 105 kt wind 850mb over the Cape; hurricane force surface too. Thing is hauling ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: James blown into the Gulf Stream. He got his monster, just a bit earlier and wetter than the novel says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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