LoveSN+ Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 12:02 AM, Damage In Tolland said: I’d ease off the throttle a bit on any meaningful BN or sustained cool pattern in Nov. Lots of conflicting signals and guidance . Until this pattern actually does change need to watch for false starts by models Expand Is the pattern not changing this week already? Yes we aren't going straight to BN, but the torch is gone. AN hangs around, but much more seasonable with several rounds of precip coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/22/2017 at 10:50 PM, dendrite said: The legendary one on these forums is groipnt. Expand Teribke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 12:02 AM, Damage In Tolland said: I’d ease off the throttle a bit on any meaningful BN or sustained cool pattern in Nov. Lots of conflicting signals and guidance . Until this pattern actually does change need to watch for false starts by models Expand I guess it would depend on what your expectations are and what you think makes a "pattern change." Pattern change doesn't have to mean it goes from +8 in the means to -5. We can get a pattern change that goes from +8 to like +1/+2 in the means. To me anything averaging out to within a couple degrees of "normal" right now would be a pretty significant pattern change...which means an even mix of cool and mild. That would be significant after the past 5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 3:59 PM, powderfreak said: I guess it would depend on what your expectations are and what you think makes a "pattern change." Pattern change doesn't have to mean it goes from +8 in the means to -5. We can get a pattern change that goes from +8 to like +1/+2 in the means. To me anything averaging out to within a couple degrees of "normal" right now would be a pretty significant pattern change...which means an even mix of cool and mild. That would be significant after the past 5 weeks. Expand Agree. If you're looking at GFS and Euro ensembles, there's a strong signal of having more troughs coming through us. That alone is a big pattern change away from consistent ridging we've been seeing in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 4:59 PM, WxBlue said: Agree. If you're looking at GFS and Euro ensembles, there's a strong signal of having more troughs coming through us. That alone is a big pattern change away from consistent ridging we've been seeing in October. Expand Yup, if the expectation is that a "pattern change" means we flip to negative 850 temps and stay there through November, then that's a bit unrealistic. I think just seeing some transient troughs mixed with flatter appeals that aren't +2 and +3 SD ridges, then we are going in the right direction. Of course this time of year it's normal for the trough axis to be more to the west in the Lakes and upper Midwest...but as long as we get pieces of it we'll have more seasonable weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 5:36 PM, powderfreak said: Yup, if the expectation is that a "pattern change" means we flip to negative 850 temps and stay there through November, then that's a bit unrealistic. I think just seeing some transient troughs mixed with flatter appeals that aren't +2 and +3 SD ridges, then we are going in the right direction. Of course this time of year it's normal for the trough axis to be more to the west in the Lakes and upper Midwest...but as long as we get pieces of it we'll have more seasonable weather. Expand Perfectly stated if you ask me. The days of the never ending torch are over. Ups and downs that are more seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Classic Dacks destroyer setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 And then there’s the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 6:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said: And then there’s the Euro Expand Yeah some might have to re-install. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Anyone expecting a complete reversal into sustained deep deep troughs and weenie blocking is setting themselves up for an emotional letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 6:17 PM, Ginx snewx said: Classic Dacks destroyer setup Expand Good time for it. Hope they get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Day 8-10 mean...EURO is definitely not buying the depths of amplification that the GFS and GGEM are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 8:29 PM, powderfreak said: Day 8-10 mean...EURO is definitely not buying the depths of amplification that the GFS and GGEM are showing. Expand whats odd though is the Euro has a stronger PNA -EPO which would argue for a deeper trough, should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Canadian has a Sandy imitator too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 8:46 PM, Ginx snewx said: Canadian has a Sandy imitator too lol Expand Likely on crack, but that time period certainly has had its share of freakshow systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Likely it’s an even stronger soueaster screamer than tomorrow’s. We may have to widespread damaging screamers within a weeks time. I believe 95-96 had that in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 8:29 PM, powderfreak said: Day 8-10 mean...EURO is definitely not buying the depths of amplification that the GFS and GGEM are showing. Expand Just look at Pacific. All that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Safe to say activity is on the rise. 95/96 part deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 9:44 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Safe to say sctivity is on the rise. 95/96 part deux. Expand BRING IT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 9:45 PM, WinterWolf said: BRING IT!!! Expand We may have to deal with winter floods and 50” less of snow lol but I think it will be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 50" of less snow would still be a good year lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 9:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Likely it’s an even stronger soueaster screamer than tomorrow’s. We may have to widespread damaging screamers within a weeks time. I believe 95-96 had that in November Expand They come in 3's so the 3rd may be Nov 1950esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Euro has been very different than the GFS at about D5 and beyond for several runs now. Classic "battle" setting up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 It looks to me like GEFS wants to cave towards a euroesque solution. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 On 10/24/2017 at 9:48 AM, weathafella said: It looks to me like GEFS wants to cave towards a euroesque solution. We shall see. Expand Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Still all systems go for a more active look and pattern change across the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 On 10/24/2017 at 10:51 AM, CoastalWx said: Still all systems go for a more active look and pattern change across the US. Expand It’s actually a December 1970 look adjusted to 6 weeks earlier. I can still see schwoegler with his boundary like a rope with impulses running along it. We were on the sweet side that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Step-down? Will the pattern change allow flakes? Also, are we at #1 warmest Oct at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 On 10/24/2017 at 11:20 AM, weathafella said: It’s actually a December 1970 look adjusted to 6 weeks earlier. I can still see schwoegler with his boundary like a rope with impulses running along it. We were on the sweet side that month. Expand It's a gradient look with early season cold in the Plains. Shocking for a Nina. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 On 10/24/2017 at 12:01 PM, CoastalWx said: It's a gradient look with early season cold in the Plains. Shocking for a Nina. I'll take it. Expand Agree. Much better look considering the crap we’ve seen some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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