CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Based on the models, we look dry and ~AN for the next 10 days. After that, according to this website and some personal research I have done, it seems like most models agree on things becoming interesting. Teleconnectors and regular model maps support this. Even CFS says cold. I'll take it! CFS is a conus torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Based on the models, we look dry and ~AN for the next 10 days. After that, according to this website and some personal research I have done, it seems like most models agree on things becoming interesting. Teleconnectors and regular model maps support this. Even CFS says cold. I'll take it! Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 That said, the CFS is not worth much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Not even a mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Cfs did switch to colder in New England a few days ago but it went back to a torch. But yeah, it had an absolute furnace for November too on its final 10 runs or so of October. It's really not worth much. I certainly would put less stock in it than the weeklies...at least out to week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome So everyone who joins this site has to be a pro Met from day 1. Cool. Sorry to tire you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Who uses the CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 So everyone who joins this site has to be a pro Met from day 1. Cool. Sorry to tire you.No, usually by day 5Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 41 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome Chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Cfs did switch to colder in New England a few days ago but it went back to a torch. But yeah, it had an absolute furnace for November too on its final 10 runs or so of October. It's really not worth much. I certainly would put less stock in it than the weeklies...at least out to week 3. He probably had the last, colder run in mind. Hardly "antics"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 The CFS will more than likely be wrong with a CONUS torch. I'm not even sure it's debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The CFS will more than likely be wrong with a CONUS torch. I'm not even sure it's debatable. Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 I don't place much stock in seasonal modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 On 11/23/2017 at 5:49 AM, moneypitmike said: ICan you explain this? I've been looking at this.....I"m not sure what the heck it's supposed to be showing me. Happy Thanksgiving. On 11/23/2017 at 10:47 AM, Ginx snewx said: Happy Thanksgiving, coldest 90 day stretch relative to Met Winter, basically says Dec 5th through 10th through March 5th through 10th in our coldest depending on location, we mid month. It's another way of looking at this (when does the 91 day stretch of winter end): We basically have the same winter season as MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Cfs did switch to colder in New England a few days ago but it went back to a torch. But yeah, it had an absolute furnace for November too on its final 10 runs or so of October. It's really not worth much. I certainly would put less stock in it than the weeklies...at least out to week 3. 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The CFS will more than likely be wrong with a CONUS torch. I'm not even sure it's debatable. Good thing we have 4 runs a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Good thing we have 4 runs a day! I know. We have so much bandwidth for it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The CFS will more than likely be wrong with a CONUS torch. I'm not even sure it's debatable. We would prob need a big shift away from the -EPO/-NAO pattern by mid month or just beyond to get a big conus wide torch. Or we see the guidance completely break down and bust on that pattern even developing in the first place. But hard to think it will given the agreement...but stranger things have happened with 12-15 days lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We would prob need a big shift away from the -EPO/-NAO pattern by mid month or just beyond to get a big conus wide torch. Or we see the guidance completely break down and bust on that pattern even developing in the first place. But hard to think it will given the agreement...but stranger things have happened with 12-15 days lead time. Yeah it would have to be a wholesale regime shift to reverse departures. I dunno...seems difficult to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah it would have to be a wholesale regime shift to reverse departures. I dunno...seems difficult to do. In fairness, I could see the cold underperforming a bit if we end up with more of a PNA ridge and a neutralish EPO...it would be cold enough for snow threats, but maybe the type of conus pattern where the N plains are above normal and only Ontario to southern Quebec to New England are modestly cold. But some of the guidance has a really poleward EPO (including week 3 on weeklies and end of some of ensemble runs) which would probably point toward departures getting colder as we go deeper into the 3rd week of December...you can see the push into the Canadian prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Sneaky Dec 2ndish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome None of us are angels but you seem downright mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: None of us are angels but you seem downright mean. He's very angry at not getting record cold lows anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sneaky Dec 2ndish? For a sneak 50 degree soueaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 The euro has that fuji low around that time frame too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Classic late Fall cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He's very angry at not getting record cold lows anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: For a sneak 50 degree soueaster? Thank you KGFS for the input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Classic late Fall cutoff. lol that GFS solution is hilarious at how its engineering itself to be days of cold rain everywhere. Rain, heavy at times, Day 6-9, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol that GFS solution is hilarious at how its engineering itself to be days of cold rain everywhere. Rain, heavy at times, Day 6-9, ha. So much for a dry spell. Has James hoisted blizzard warnings yet for Cape Cod, Massachusetts for Dec. 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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