Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

That seems to be a consensus view among level-headed pros like you and it reassures me that we aren't facing the type of situation where we are chasing a phantom pattern change that's perpetually three weeks away.

Reality check for all (including myself): There's still a week left in November...we aren't even at the starting line yet!

And also note the patterns can morph a bit, or sometimes you have crappy luck and the so called good pattern fails to deliver. That should always be in the back of people's minds. Nothing is ever a lock. All you can do is look at the broad picture and hope everything falls into place.

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And also note the patterns can morph a bit, or sometimes you have crappy luck and the so called good pattern fails to deliver. That should always be in the back of people's minds. Nothing is ever a lock. All you can do is look at the broad picture and hope everything falls into place.

Always important to remember that stuff.

Crappy patterns can produce and beautiful patterns on paper can be duds.  

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Always important to remember that stuff.

Crappy patterns can produce and beautiful patterns on paper can be duds.  

Probably moreso here. I think you guys will/are in good shape given your climo and latitude. You already had a great start. Maybe we tone it down from now through first week of December...but you'll have upslope at times to help replace synoptics.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

That seems to be a consensus view among level-headed pros like you and it reassures me that we aren't facing the type of situation where we are chasing a phantom pattern change that's perpetually three weeks away.

Reality check for all (including myself): There's still a week left in November...we aren't even at the starting line yet!

The MR to LR guidance has been pretty good the past month or so. We haven't seen many false flags. The change to much colder for mid November happened as advertised. The post Tday milder pattern looks on track as forecasted. I'd expect the flip back in December should happen as well. It has pretty much unanimous support by different ensemble suites. The timing may not be exact and details to be determined, but I would be pretty surprised if we don't have legit winter threats in the 2nd and 3rd weeks of December. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably moreso here. I think you guys will/are in good shape given your climo and latitude. You already had a great start. Maybe we tone it down from now through first week of December...but you'll have upslope at times to help replace synoptics.

The funny thing is I usually think you guys have a better shot at pulling off a larger impact synoptic event in an overall crappy pattern with one well timed coastal low (sort of like 2015-16).  Like just get some modified but cold enough air in there and some low sneaking south of SNE and you get a stripe of 6-12" in an overall awful looking 10 day period or something.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The funny thing is I usually think you guys have a better shot at pulling off a larger impact synoptic event in an overall crappy pattern with one well timed coastal low (sort of like 2015-16).  Like just get some modified but cold enough air in there and some low sneaking south of SNE and you get a stripe of 6-12" in an overall awful looking 10 day period or something.

Recent bias at play I think. Climo says you guys can pull off a 6-12” type deal in crap patterm while we 40F rain up to the VT border. It takes a lot more to get a well timed cool shot coinciding with a perfectly placed surface feature south of LI. I cant remember how many times in the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s where I was just south of the boundry while watching the TWC showing Scranton-Albany—VT/NH putting up digits. It was like a broken record. 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The funny thing is I usually think you guys have a better shot at pulling off a larger impact synoptic event in an overall crappy pattern with one well timed coastal low (sort of like 2015-16).  Like just get some modified but cold enough air in there and some low sneaking south of SNE and you get a stripe of 6-12" in an overall awful looking 10 day period or something.

That actually happened in December 2001 like 2 days after a lot of SNE hit 70F...and honestly, the dec 97 surprise happened in a pretty cruddy pattern. So yeah, they can and do happen. Though we'd all obviously hope it's a good pattern because it would be nice for the stuff to stick around for the holidays. 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

"A beautiful weather pattern, does not a storm make"

[weathafella]

Weenieish end to eps.  Let’s get that closer in.

[CoastalWx]

52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The funny thing is I usually think you guys have a better shot at pulling off a larger impact synoptic event in an overall crappy pattern with one well timed coastal low (sort of like 2015-16).  Like just get some modified but cold enough air in there and some low sneaking south of SNE and you get a stripe of 6-12" in an overall awful looking 10 day period or something.

Well I mean when I'm wasting away again in Torcharitaville while you're in the 30s preserving the previous 2-4" of upslope. 

[LurkerBoy]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Weenieish end to eps.  Let’s get that closer in.

should I put my buns away until then?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That actually happened in December 2001 like 2 days after a lot of SNE hit 70F...and honestly, the dec 97 surprise happened in a pretty cruddy pattern. So yeah, they can and do happen. Though we'd all obviously hope it's a good pattern because it would be nice for the stuff to stick around for the holidays. 

 

The "Tuck Rule" game that derailed the Raiders franchise.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The "Tuck Rule" game that derailed the Raiders franchise.

Just don’t look at them.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The "Tuck Rule" game that derailed the Raiders franchise.

The tuck rule game was about a month later in January 2002. But yeah, another storm that winter in a seemingly endless garbage pattern. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The tuck rule game was about a month later in January 2002. But yeah, another storm that winter in a seemingly endless garbage pattern. 

In that infernal winter, the day of the tuck event (snow started at night during the game) we had solid snow sky overcast and the only day that winter that stayed AOB 32 at BOS.   I think the high was 32 even.

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Recent bias at play I think. Climo says you guys can pull off a 6-12” type deal in crap patterm while we 40F rain up to the VT border. It takes a lot more to get a well timed cool shot coinciding with a perfectly placed surface feature south of LI. I cant remember how many times in the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s where I was just south of the boundry while watching the TWC showing Scranton-Albany—VT/NH putting up digits. It was like a broken record. 

Yeah probably but there's not a ton of those events that I can remember so likely some bias.  I think of it more as maybe SWFE we can do that but there really aren't many storms out there where say ORH is all rain and VT/NH get widespread warning snows.  

Our climo advantage IMO is more consistent lighter events.  You guys are more go big or go home, which makes those 12" bombs in a crappy pattern a bit more likely to me.  

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I mean when I'm wasting away again in Torcharitaville while you're in the 30s preserving the previous 2-4" of upslope. 

Yeah that makes sense.  I was thinking larger events, which given storm track tendencies I feel SNE has just as decent a chance.

[MJO812]

GEFS and EPS have the pattern changing around December 5-7.

[weathafella]

Even today will go into the books below normal at least at BOS.  

[weathafella]

39 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GEFS and EPS have the pattern changing around December 5-7.

More like 12/7-10.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

More like 12/7-10.

Yep.  At least as modeled. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

More like 12/7-10.

3 weeks.,Just 3 more long weeks 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 weeks.,Just 3 more long weeks 

That's two weeks..to 2.5 weeks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The tuck rule game was about a month later in January 2002. But yeah, another storm that winter in a seemingly endless garbage pattern. 

Yea, that's right...it was a ps game. I was thinking the Dec event was the lone snow event..that is why I mixed them up.

[Weatherexpert]

On 11/23/2017 at 4:29 PM, LurkerBoy said:

You’re *

this IS me doing research.

I agree and you can ask us anything lurk boy I am happy to help

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that's right...it was a ps game. I was thinking the Dec event was the lone snow event..that is why I mixed them up.

Man, that was the beginning of the Boston sports disrobe era. Not many articles of clothes on since.

[Weatherexpert]

On 11/23/2017 at 4:08 PM, Powderboy413 said:

your gonna have to start doing your own research sometimes, if not, your gonna be lost when the season starts

Powerboy Excuse me but jonathon is my friend why don't you pick on someone your own size.

lurkerboy, yes the ridge is good  it's looking like a cold cold winter ahead 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Man. I haven’t looked in the LR lately but I can see now why the vets are ringing the winter bells. Ens look pretty sick. 

[WintersComing]

Weenie


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[LurkerBoy]

Based on the models, we look dry and ~AN for the next 10 days. After that, according to this website and some personal research I have done, it seems like most models agree on things becoming interesting. Teleconnectors and regular model maps support this. Even CFS says cold. 

 

I'll take it!