LurkerBoy Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: your gonna have to start doing your own research sometimes, if not, your gonna be lost when the season starts You’re * this IS me doing research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: You’re * this IS me doing research. https://www.theweatherprediction.com Here. Happy Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: At least the ridging in Greenland is staying. That's one thing I thought might vanish, but is modeled not to. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hoth said: https://www.theweatherprediction.com Here. Happy Thanksgiving. Yup, use it often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 On 11/22/2017 at 1:14 PM, tamarack said: Completely agree on the 1st sentence, but the last one makes you look trivial. Every POTUS for many many administrations has done the turkey pardon thing. Imagine how loud the condemnations would've been had Trump not gone along with the silly ceremony. Your opinion, but odd just the same. What is trivial is having the turkey 'ceremony". It may be the dumbest things I've ever seen with regard to "traditions". I don't care if it's during another president, or during Trump's time, it needs to go. If people get on his case because he doesn't pardon a turkey, then maybe then we can revisit who is being trivial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Weeklies for whatever they’re worth are cold weeks 3-4, with stormy appeal, but warm to close to torch weeks 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 4 hours ago, weathafella said: The fun starts 12/10 and temporarily goes on hiatus 12/25. Don't say that we need a White Christmas for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Just now, leo2000 said: Don't say that need a White Christmas for a change I thInk my post provides that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 From Ben Noll's twitter page. Looks like he is passing of the winter of 2000-2001 analog?. New ECMWF weeklies have some big trends in mid-Dec across North America and North Atlantic ... perhaps it shows the MJO progressing into phases 8-1 (colder). Looks somewhat like 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thInk my post provides that possibility. Ok that is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Weeklies for whatever they’re worth are cold weeks 3-4, with stormy appeal, but warm to close to torch weeks 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 2 hours ago, leo2000 said: From Ben Noll's twitter page. Looks like he is passing of the winter of 2000-2001 analog?. New ECMWF weeklies have some big trends in mid-Dec across North America and North Atlantic ... perhaps it shows the MJO progressing into phases 8-1 (colder). Looks somewhat like 2000. Oh BEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 i wish the weeklies were good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Seems like the new "in" thing is to keep changing your winter forecast with every new update of the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: +1 the new torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Seems like the new "in" thing is to keep changing your winter forecast with every new update of the weeklies. Natural progression of this pattern would seem to indicate week 3 is pretty plausible, maybe rushed but somewhere after the 10th things should look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Week 3 with an Aleutian low neg AO Pos PNA a bit of a Greenland ridge is pretty classic for a East Coast snowstorm. Hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Week 3 has a little skill but obviously you'd like to see it on the ensembles over the next few days. The end of the EPS does start to look a bit like week 3 on the weeklies. Not quite there yet but it's got an EPO going negative and the negative NAO. It just doesn't have the whole PAC side on roids yet like week 3. But I'd be pretty optimistic right now for December after the first week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: AWT We bun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Weeklies are bun worthy, but agree with Brian. Too much hugging those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 It looks like the tropical try to get more active too with forcing trying to head east. That's helping the pattern. Nice thing about being east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 That's a warm looking Day 10 on the Euro...barely any sub 0C 850 air in the Lower 48. Luckily it'll change in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 3 more weeks..just 3 more weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's a warm looking Day 10 on the Euro...barely any sub 0C 850 air in the Lower 48. Luckily it'll change in a few hours. It's that cutoff that won't happen off to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's that cutoff that won't happen off to the south. Yeah that's an interesting looking solution haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 I feel pretty optimistic in the long range after the 7-10 or so. I know Will and others said that yesterday and I agree. That doesn't mean something can't happen before.....but I am speaking about a more stable and wintry look....not the ups and downs we will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel pretty optimistic in the long range after the 7-10 or so. I know Will and others said that yesterday and I agree. That doesn't mean something can't happen before.....but I am speaking about a more stable and wintry look....not the ups and downs we will have. What's your hunch on the threshold b/t now and then? Seems to me to be mostly dry and AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel pretty optimistic in the long range after the 7-10 or so. I know Will and others said that yesterday and I agree. That doesn't mean something can't happen before.....but I am speaking about a more stable and wintry look....not the ups and downs we will have. That seems to be a consensus view among level-headed pros like you and it reassures me that we aren't facing the type of situation where we are chasing a phantom pattern change that's perpetually three weeks away. Reality check for all (including myself): There's still a week left in November...we aren't even at the starting line yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: What's your hunch on the threshold b/t now and then? Seems to me to be mostly dry and AN. I don't see anything noteworthy for awhile. However once in a while the op runs show something whizzing by, so you can't rule anything out prior. It does not look super torchy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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