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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You could definitely get something prior....nobody should rule that out. But in terms of something more stable...we may have to wait until the second week. The way I approach it, anything prior is gravy. 

Was it super warm? I am looking at GEFS and they looks slightly AN

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2 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Was it super warm? I am looking at GEFS and they looks slightly AN

Not super torch, but mild. Esp 6-10 day. Again, this has been modeled for awhile now. Still pretty cold in Canada, so let it build and fester where it should. What we do not want is a massive trough from AK down to the PAC NW. Fortunately, we do not have that. In fact, the opposite as we head later into the 11-15 day. 

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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was one ugly Euro run last night. Long, long ways to go before any semblance of winter sometime in December

A few chances for some upslope fun over the next 10 days on the Euro.  That should satisfy most of the forum's need, lol.  JSpin, myself and Alex all talking to each other until mid December it seems.  

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol. Kevin always thinks by thanksgiving we should be in deep winter. Can't wishcast your way past climo. Pattern looks decent after 12/6ish...who knows, we might get a smaller event before that. 

This!

 

Deep winter...it just doesn't happen around here by T. Giving most years. And sometimes(last couple years being most recent) most of December can be elusive with regard to real winter weather too.   Hopefully this year is different, as the pattern looks to be decent in the 11-15.  I'd love a good 3/4-1/2 of December to be wintry. 

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Hardly looks like a catastrophe in the making. In fact it just seems normally mild (as in about 10F AN on the "worst" days and much closer to N on most). If it hasn't changed a month from now..... but that's not what it looks like according to the consensus of the mets on board. Great T day, too, chilly but bright. Hard to be a Debbie Downer here on the Tolland Worcester massif (whoever came up with that one was brilliant). Forecast: mild, then colder, dry then wet (maybe snowy). Sounds like New England to me.

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4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

ICan you explain this?  I've been looking at this.....I"m not sure what the heck it's supposed to be showing me.

 

Happy Thanksgiving.

Happy Thanksgiving,  coldest 90 day stretch relative to Met Winter, basically says Dec 5th through 10th through March 5th through 10th in our coldest depending on location,  we mid month.

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1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

it doesn't look good unless that EPO goes negative. We really need the Pacific help here. 

EPO looks good in LR. Again, after about the 5th-6th the pattern looks solid to me. We will see if it changes but I'm pretty optimistic...even if it's delayed some. It would be nice to flip the pattern so that we run with it through New Years instead of the typical grinch pattern that develops on the tail end of a favorable regime that we see all too often. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPO looks good in LR. Again, after about the 5th-6th the pattern looks solid to me. We will see if it changes but I'm pretty optimistic...even if it's delayed some. It would be nice to flip the pattern so that we run with it through New Years instead of the typical grinch pattern that develops on the tail end of a favorable regime that we see all too often. 

How does the PNA, NAO and AO look too?. Even, though they don't do much for my neck of the woods. 

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