Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Wake me up in 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wake me up in 30 days. OK but go to sleep, first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That gefs look would get the party started promptly. No warmup tunes, just straight pumping hard beats getting folks on the dancefloor shaking their weenies. Canadian ensembles are on board at 12z too...we'll see how 12z EPS trends, but it looked decent last night, though not quite as balls-to-wall epic as GEFs/Canadian today. Even if we think the setup is being rushed by 5-10 days which frequently happens, that still should make one optimistic for December. Instead of Dec 6 or 7, you're looking at Dec 11-16th for the great pattern to start. This doesn't preclude anything happening before that...we could get an event on Dec 4-5 for all we know. It's not completely hostile during that period...I'm just focusing on the much better period as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Think some folks here need to hit the eggnog pronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 3 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Technically it is but I never liked Connecticut so I vote to exclude CT out and make it part of the mid Atlantic. By the way is there snakes in ct? on another note someone with more knowledge like weatherfell or damage in Rolland or coastal is there any legit snow threat that you can think of the next week to Saint Nicholas day December 5th-6th timeframe? Usually by then we get something! Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 EPS is looking very nice too in the LR. It tries to flex the SE ridge a bit in the Dec 3-5 timeframe, but it gets overwhelmed by a tanking EPO/NAO. It def is jumping on the NAO bandwagon late in the period...all 3 major ensemble packages do. We'll have to see if that can get closer than D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: More like 11/28-11/29...it's possible we see another mild incursion for a day or two in the 12/1-12/5 period but there's also some colder shots mixed in. The 11-15 though is starting to look pretty tasty. GEFS went full-on GGW by the end of its run with huge PNA-EPO connection in tandem with a -NAO...Judah Cohen just had a seizure. EPS went the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Canadian ensembles are on board at 12z too...we'll see how 12z EPS trends, but it looked decent last night, though not quite as balls-to-wall epic as GEFs/Canadian today. Even if we think the setup is being rushed by 5-10 days which frequently happens, that still should make one optimistic for December. Instead of Dec 6 or 7, you're looking at Dec 11-16th for the great pattern to start. This doesn't preclude anything happening before that...we could get an event on Dec 4-5 for all we know. It's not completely hostile during that period...I'm just focusing on the much better period as currently modeled. why does it always have to be another week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is looking very nice too in the LR. It tries to flex the SE ridge a bit in the Dec 3-5 timeframe, but it gets overwhelmed by a tanking EPO/NAO. It def is jumping on the NAO bandwagon late in the period...all 3 major ensemble packages do. We'll have to see if that can get closer than D10. ? Major west coast trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: why does it always have to be another week away. It doesn't. It just sometimes is. It also goes the other direction...a warmer pattern might get delayed if you are entrenched in a colder regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Major west coast trough We gamble with that EPO/NAO look all month long. You can see it overwhelming it in later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We gamble with that EPO/NAO look all month long. You can see it overwhelming it in later panels. True, SE ridge doesn’t stand a chance with that epo/nao look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: True, SE ridge doesn’t stand a chance with that epo/nao look. It definitely flexes though for a time on the EPS...ginxy is right pointing out the WC trough...it's not really there on the GGEM ensembles/GEFS...but the more important aspects to me are the EPO/NAO. We can live with western troughiness with a -EPO...add in a -NAO and its even better. It is also not clear any western troughiness hangs around...it starts to weaken and the weeklies had it gone by week 3...take with appropriate grain of salt obviously. But the EPO/NAO signal is definitely good...details to be determined yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 5 hours ago, Dan76 said: Think some folks here need to hit the eggnog pronto don't worry, i got it covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Happy thanksgiving guys. Looks like the long range isn’t so bad after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 11:00 AM, Isotherm said: The increasingly strong PNJ will imprint on the troposphere in about 10 days, as the stratospheric low geopotential height anomalies downwell. However, I expect a rather potent constructive interference of w1 which will begin converging on the stratoapheric vortex as early as November 23rd. This, subsequently, will weaken the vortex by approximately 35-40% of its previous intensity. That downwelling process will occur concurrently with the resumption of base state LF forcing; together, this should yield the reemergence of both a high latitude blocking signal and Aleutian ridging by later in the first week of December or the second week. I don't expect the models to reflect that for another several days mimimum. To demonstrate that stratospheric discussion is not 'voodoo' - the wave 1 response is now occurring quite strongly over the coming 5-10 days, as I forecasted in mid November: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 http://amp.wcvb.com/article/seasonal-forecast-guru-buckle-up-for-a-rollercoaster-winter/13821756 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 I stopped at seasonal forecast guru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I stopped at seasonal forecast guru. Lol I did too...didn't read it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Sounds reasonable to me..but maybe a bit too snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Didn't his graphic last year look similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Apparently he has his own model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Zzzzz to the Z couple a weeks fah ya wx freaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Zzzzz to the Z couple a weeks fah ya wx freaks Lil Steve, the up and coming Moosup rapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: http://amp.wcvb.com/article/seasonal-forecast-guru-buckle-up-for-a-rollercoaster-winter/13821756 Right... so take the negative EPO from a couple weeks ago… Combine it with the obvious persistence of transitory we've had since, and can correlatejust mapped out across the whole winter. The irony being people are wondering if November can correlate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lil Steve, the up and coming Moosup rapper. Lol this be y we mid December, imma gonna make ya memba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol this be y we mid December, imma gonna make ya memba ICan you explain this? I've been looking at this.....I"m not sure what the heck it's supposed to be showing me. Happy Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 That was one ugly Euro run last night. Long, long ways to go before any semblance of winter sometime in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was one ugly Euro run last night. Long, long ways to go before any semblance of winter sometime in December Been saying later in the second week and beyond for awhile now. ZZZZZZZ until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Been saying later in the second week and beyond for awhile now. ZZZZZZZ until then. I picked a good week to be in SF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.