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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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23 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Why is it that New Englanders has so many of the weather weenies vs places like the midwest?  Is it because we are in the cross hairs of many systems and intensifying northward moving coastals or something in our blood?  Maybe interesting winter weather begets more people interested in weather.  I don't know? 

Winter sports act to interest as well, particularly skiing and snowboarding.

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46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

New England, particularly SNE will always have more winter weenies and those weenies will post in Wx forums.  We don't get severe. However, plenty of Midwest people are severe weenies. 

Winter wx is really all we have that we do "well". Yeah we get the occasional TC and the occasional severe outbreak, but those are pretty few and far between. You'll have a lot of idle time for other hobbies if you only focus on those here.

 

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34 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

It’s impossible not to worry that this is the new normal. There’s something primal that enjoys seasons in seasons, and the idea of that shifting is hard to adapt to. Plus, autumn’s nostalgia is hinged on weather factors. A confusing time to be a human.

And a post like this normally gets a :weenie:

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57 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

It’s impossible not to worry that this is the new normal. There’s something primal that enjoys seasons in seasons, and the idea of that shifting is hard to adapt to. Plus, autumn’s nostalgia is hinged on weather factors. A confusing time to be a human.

You must be one of those that is very concerned with climate change.....Here's a word of advice...don't be.  

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21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You must be one of those that is very concerned with climate change.....Here's a word of advice...don't be.  

Nothing wrong with being concerned about it...but I wouldn't worry too much in terms of our sensible wx...at least in the near term. Ironically, October around here is one of those months that has a slightly negative trend since the mid-20th century...there must have been some weenies jumping off the Tobin bridge when they started constructing it in the late 1940s thinking the warm Octobers were dooming their winter:

 

 

MA_Oct.jpg

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And that's what I mean..in terms of our weather.  Just like back in the early part of the decade of the 2000's...wasn't it Al Gore and his followers saying that by after 2008 or something like that...snow/big snow events would be hard to come by in the Mid Atlantic and New England?   And then we all know what happened after he said that lol. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

And that's what I mean..in terms of our weather.  Just like back in the early part of the decade of the 2000's...wasn't it Al Gore and his followers saying that by after 2008 or something like that...snow/big snow events would be hard to come by in the Mid Atlantic and New England?   And then we all know what happened after he said that lol. 

I don't think it is exactly how it was spun. In fact, here's a quote from Mr. Gore himself

Quote

"Increased heavy snowfalls are completely consistent with what they have been predicting as a consequence of man-made global warming"

Not saying there was no agenda involved in some of his approach, but it isn't like there's no science to back it up.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

And that's what I mean..in terms of our weather.  Just like back in the early part of the decade of the 2000's...wasn't it Al Gore and his followers saying that by after 2008 or something like that...snow/big snow events would be hard to come by in the Mid Atlantic and New England?   And then we all know what happened after he said that lol. 

I do remember him claiming something like that, though I have stronger memories of some hyperbolic ABC News special claiming NYC would be flooding regularly by 2015 from sea level rise.

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern change to more normal. I see a lot of alternating warm and cold stuff. I don't see a prolonged cold pattern as the Pacific isn't quite there yet.

 

 

You quoted the ePS 11-15 this AM, wouldn't put much faith in that, models in flux right now. Probably like you said, step down has begun

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It's an interesting hang up going on in here between perceptions.

To me, this ridging is like the ridging we couldn't seem to sustained longer than a proverbial ten minutes ... all summer long.

Now, those that privately took joy from that fact, are like, ... paying the piper in getting warmth when they don't want it.  Funny ...if not poetic in some ways. 

Meanwhile, the poster's right.  It may take decades (more, and yes "OR LESS") ... but, climate models very much do predict two baser aspects will inevitably occur with GW:

1 .. the cold season starts later and ends earlier

2 .. the climate bands migrate north

This can all fail...sure... f'n comet impact (ha). Or obviously more likely ... a series of unanticipated volcanic events.  Should the latter occur...obviously that murks up the picture quite a bit.

Excluding those off-chance compensating scenarios,  your winters are eroding whether you want to admit it or not ...  The difference (if not "put-off savior") is that it may not kill THIS winter outright. If this winter sucks, it probably will suck for numerous other reasons.  Circa 2071 ... if continuing along the same course of environmental resources for profligate gain forms of industry? Those same climate models that have nailed the sea level rise and other aspects, prooobably will be right about winter being an entirely different climate experience at our latitude.

In the meantime, for me personally ...I am going to be on the look out for that over abundant gradient issue we've seen two years running...It's hard to run a good storm production winter with 90 dm of heights on the charts between JB and Floriday like all the f'n time.  The flow is too fast and thus sheared ...Regardless of how deep troughs look in runs and so forth, that factor mitigates relative to... whatever you are getting as a result of said trough, some part of it was stolen and absorbed away into the back ground ranging wind velocity of the planetary maelstrom when you have that HUGEmangous atmospheric grand canyon in place.    

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You quoted the ePS 11-15 this AM, wouldn't put much faith in that, models in flux right now. Probably like you said, step down has begun

The Pacific isn't really in a state for prolonged cold. The ridging flattens out a bit again later in the 11-15 day.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You quoted the ePS 11-15 this AM, wouldn't put much faith in that, models in flux right now. Probably like you said, step down has begun

Isn’t that what happens around this time of the year regardless though? Just like april or may or whenever it turns to spring, eventually the snow melts and its the warm season. 

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