HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Sometimes I feel like the models tend to rush these changes a bit...for better or for worse. We know winter will come and we see the first inklings that this blasted furnace of the last 55 or so days is ending...but I think it will be a slow process still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 1:55 PM, ORH_wxman said: First week of April was pretty wintry. Expand Yeah it pulled it up a notch. It wasn't a ratter in my eyes, but I can see why some felt it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 4:55 PM, ORH_wxman said: That system for early next week (Nov 13-14ish) is gaining a little more interest in the synoptic look. It's dependent on that arctic shot preceding it actually occurring which appears to be gaining some support too. I agree with Tip talking about how the model guidance may be struggling a bit with the whole regime of this -EPO and short wave length issue...the hemispheric pattern "wants" to be colder for us with the EPO look but idiosyncrasies have so far prevented it...however, perhaps a few chickens are coming home to roost next weekend and early next week. We will see...at least it is something that warrants checking in on each model cycle. Expand The EPS was showing that for about 36 hrs now. A nice fresh batch of cold air preceding it. The standard caveats apply, but something to keep on the back burner anyways. There's also a bit of a Hudson Bay ridge preceding it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 6:07 PM, CoastalWx said: The EPS was showing that for about 36 hrs now. A nice fresh batch of cold air preceding it. The standard caveats apply, but something to keep on the back burner anyways. There's also a bit of a Hudson Bay ridge preceding it too. Expand The Hudson Bay ridge would help hold high pressure in place too. We'll see how things look going forward. Not getting invested in winter precious yet but it won't be surprising if it happens. 12z euro should actually be kind of interesting here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Def a bit of a signal on the 12z EPS at day 8. High pressure over Quebec and a hint of low pressure to the south of LI. It seems the ensembles are more and more on board for a good cold shot too later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Jfc on the GGEM... is that sub-504dm thicknesses over NNE on Nov 10th?! Ill eat my hat if it's 15F here at 1pm in the afternoon on Friday. Those are some insane afternoon/daytime temps in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 9:03 PM, powderfreak said: Jfc on the GGEM... is that sub-504dm thicknesses over NNE on Nov 10th?! Ill eat my hat if it's 15F here at 1pm in the afternoon on Friday. Those are some insane afternoon/daytime temps in NNE. Expand Those temps are low all the way down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 yeah.. pf the apparently ... invisible elephant no one realizes is in the room, is that sort of thing has been modeled a bit more frequently than merely typical autumn fantasies by day-dreamer distance range model visions. That, in its self, is sort of suggestive of some underpinning trend - the models could be picking up on deeper tissue tendencies that could become more 'verifiable' given deeper descent into the cold season. I can understand one or two cycles in the three week sort of time span, but this is like all the time this year... I don't think that's happening in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 9:11 PM, Cold Miser said: Those temps are low all the way down the coast. Expand Yeah I'm sure...was just trying to wrap my head around what afternoon temps in the teens might feel like all the sudden. Very little chance of that extreme cold (it's like -20C at 850 over northern VT/NY) but even a sub-freezing day right now would feel brutal haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 3:26 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lol DIT is still hungover Expand If I didn't know any better, I'd say he's really a Russian bot, auto-replying about droughts and torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 4:55 PM, ORH_wxman said: That system for early next week (Nov 13-14ish) is gaining a little more interest in the synoptic look. It's dependent on that arctic shot preceding it actually occurring which appears to be gaining some support too. I agree with Tip talking about how the model guidance may be struggling a bit with the whole regime of this -EPO and short wave length issue...the hemispheric pattern "wants" to be colder for us with the EPO look but idiosyncrasies have so far prevented it...however, perhaps a few chickens are coming home to roost next weekend and early next week. We will see...at least it is something that warrants checking in on each model cycle. Expand Congrats @dendrite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 9:53 PM, OceanStWx said: Congrats @dendrite? Expand My birds told me they want to roost to a +EPO, +++ENSO, +NAO, +AO, and a +DIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 10:17 PM, dendrite said: My birds told me they want to roost to a +EPO, +++ENSO, +NAO, +AO, and a +DIT. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 10:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it Expand Nope...not gonna happen, it's a Ratter...end of story. You're not feeling the torch November anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 10:42 PM, WinterWolf said: Nope...not gonna happen, it's a Ratter...end of story. You're not feeling the torch November anymore... Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 9:21 PM, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm sure...was just trying to wrap my head around what afternoon temps in the teens might feel like all the sudden. Very little chance of that extreme cold (it's like -20C at 850 over northern VT/NY) but even a sub-freezing day right now would feel brutal haha. Expand I’m thinking that would be a pretty chilly start to deer season the next morning. Not that I’m going out into the woods lol. Will need to stay in camp and keep the fire stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 10:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it Expand You’ve felt one too many ‘s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’ve felt one too many ‘s. Expand Lmao. He sure has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’ve felt one too many ‘s. Expand You are the warm weenie of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Jesus .. what a dip schit... i'm sitting here waiting for the 18z GFS to start rollin in - not that the run has any intrinsic value or nothin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:23 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus .. what a dip schit... i'm sitting here waiting for the 18z GFS to start rollin in - not that the run has any intrinsic value or nothin' Expand Lol...it rolled in an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:22 PM, Snow88 said: You are the warm weenie of SNE Expand ha, I think I am one of the few going for a big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 10:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the first 1-3 or 2-4 inch event late this coming weekend. Starting to feel it Expand Doubt it, but that would make sense. right from summer to an early season snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:48 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doubt it, but that would make sense. right from summer to an early season snow Expand Seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:48 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doubt it, but that would make sense. right from summer to an early season snow Expand We coming for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:00 PM, mreaves said: I’m thinking that would be a pretty chilly start to deer season the next morning. Not that I’m going out into the woods lol. Will need to stay in camp and keep the fire stoked. Expand Wuss..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ha, I think I am one of the few going for a big winter. Expand I’m on the same boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 10:22 PM, eekuasepinniW said: Expand That's awesome. Follow them around and tell me what their diet consists of. Probably fast food and chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 11:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ha, I think I am one of the few going for a big winter. Expand I am too! My prediction last week was that we'd have our first inch by Nov 15, while my partner said New Years Eve. I think it is going to be a longer winter weather period than has been the norm lately, that it will snow a lot this winter and we are going to have a lot of bouts of cold weather. Reasons 1) because that is what I want and I am a weenie 2) La Nina 3) better set up for some -NAO this year (QBO) 4) EPO dumping cold early 5) warm Sept and Oct, and a well-trending first significant cold snap coming shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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