HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 9:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Or it can cause cutters. Expand We risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Definitely a nice sign to see cstls on the models for next week. Seems like the overall pattern supports cyclogenesis on the EC somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 9:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Or it can cause cutters. Expand Thanks, Maz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 10:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Definitely a nice sign to see cstls on the models for next week. Seems like the overall pattern supports cyclogenesis on the EC somewhere. Expand I've been thinking that seeing coastals developing consistently this early can't be a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 9:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Or it can cause cutters. Expand Every teleconnection has its screw potential; +pna can leave us dry as a bone, -nao can make D.C. happy etc etc, but all things considered, I'll take my chances with a -epo as a building block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 9:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Or it can cause cutters. Expand salient point ... -EPO is the cold loading, a necessity for snow enthusiasts ...particularly earlier in the season when the 'local factory' is still sort of closed for production. But, as you say, that's a double edged sword, because the wave lengths can often crinkle up and pack the cold back west. However, even in that scenario, you're doing better than not having one at all; because obviously ( you know this stuff..just sayn) the cold is in reach given even giga motions in the pattern. Sometimes -EPO will in fact start off as an outside slider out west... If one cares to look at some of the K.U. examples, the outside slider might settle into the SW, then...a week later gets ejected as a southern stream wave. When that happens you keep eyes open because the downstream confluence from that may have a surface pp anomaly near the Lakes/Ontario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 11:37 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: Every teleconnection has its screw potential; +pna can leave us dry as a bone, -nao can make D.C. happy etc etc, but all things considered, I'll take my chances with a -epo as a building block. Expand You are better off with a +PNA when you consider the combo of snow and cold. However, a properly placed -EPO ridge will serve you well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 11:52 PM, Typhoon Tip said: salient point ... -EPO is the cold loading, a necessity for snow enthusiasts ...particularly earlier in the season when the 'local factory' is still sort of closed for production. But, as you say, that's a double edged sword, because the wave lengths can often crinkle up and pack the cold back west. However, even in that scenario, you're doing better than not having one at all; because obviously ( you know this stuff..just sayn) the cold is in reach given even giga motions in the pattern. Sometimes -EPO will in fact start off as an outside slider out west... If one cares to look at some of the K.U. examples, the outside slider might settle into the SW, then...a week later gets ejected as a southern stream wave. When that happens you keep eyes open because the downstream confluence from that may have a surface pp anomaly near the Lakes/Ontario... Expand I mean winter 13-14 was a great example of a nicely placed -EPO and even +NAO of all things. The problem with the -EPO s that the flow tends to be "ruler" flow. IOW, it's fast with not much room to amplify. I know you are big on this, but just saying for the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:26 AM, CoastalWx said: I mean winter 13-14 was a great example of a nicely placed -EPO and even +NAO of all things. The problem with the -EPO s that the flow tends to be "ruler" flow. IOW, it's fast with not much room to amplify. I know you are big on this, but just saying for the people. Expand Depends on the exact location and strength of the ridge, too......Feb 2015 was primarily EPO driven....modest PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:26 AM, CoastalWx said: I mean winter 13-14 was a great example of a nicely placed -EPO and even +NAO of all things. The problem with the -EPO s that the flow tends to be "ruler" flow. IOW, it's fast with not much room to amplify. I know you are big on this, but just saying for the people. Expand The people listen. Why does -epo tend to be fast flow though? isn’t the nao more of an indicator whether the flow slows or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 The models have agreement on the overall location of the Polar Vortex being on our side of the hemisphere, plus they try to engage it in the overall long term trough position over the central and eastern USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 2:26 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The models have agreement on the overall location of the Polar Vortex being on our side of the hemisphere, plus they try to engage it in the overall long term trough position over the central and eastern USA. Expand Like when and what model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Look at the consensus Jerry, they have the anomalies deeper and colder over Canada on our side of the hemisphere throughout their forecasts, just positioning is off a little with little continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 2:29 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Look at the consensus Jerry, they have the anomalies deeper and colder over Canada on our side of the hemisphere throughout their forecasts, just positioning is off a little with little continuity Expand That’s not what you originally said James. You talked about the location of the polar vortex. Not much sign of that to me just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 2:39 AM, weathafella said: That’s not what you originally said James. You talked about the location of the polar vortex. Not much sign of that to me just yet. Expand Sorry Jerry I misspoke again, man I am doing that a lot lately, the models are showing that the polar vortex mean position is over northern Canada on our side of the hemisphere, eventually as we get closer to winter months we should have that polar vortex drop more often than not into the US during -AO periods, depending upon the NAO and PNA indices and there signs will determine what kind of winter we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I’ll be happy if it doesn’t drop too far south. That would make it cold and often dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 2:06 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The people listen. Why does -epo tend to be fast flow though? isn’t the nao more of an indicator whether the flow slows or not? Expand In the absence of Atlantic blocking it can be fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 2:06 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The people listen. Why does -epo tend to be fast flow though? isn’t the nao more of an indicator whether the flow slows or not? Expand It can compress and overwhelm the flow. So you end up getting a rather progressive jetstream. Plus, as Ray said...if you have no blocking...even more of a propensity for ruler flow. I mean don't get me wrong...it supplies cold...but it comes with a few caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 We rain next week. All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 The Polar Vortex and Monsters are coming. O/U 10x per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 so are we getting monsters, polar vortex, AND rain all next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Looks like first flakes for some in New England next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I like how the models want to throw in a few coastals in the mid/long range. Thats encouraging at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 DIT starting with the reverse psychology early this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/926048238989430784 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:05 PM, LurkerBoy said: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/926048238989430784 ?? Expand In other words, typical Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:20 PM, CoastalWx said: In other words, typical Nina. Expand How is that typical Nina? Doesn’t typical Nina feature early season cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:30 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: How is that typical Nina? Doesn’t typical Nina feature early season cold Expand Yeah, and there's a lot of it there...it's just northwest of us right now...but as you lengthen the wavelengths, we'd probably get a chunk of that bleeding over the top. But essentially...classic Nina is Aleutian ridge and PAC NW trough...we are often the battle ground up here. The depth of western troughing and also the AO/NAO will play a role too in how far southeast the cold gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Looks fine for now, cold is close by. keep pumping heights into AK during the month, the gradient will eventually sag south into SNE. We will have to deal with cutters if the trough is persistent out west though....that will spook many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:35 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, and there's a lot of it there...it's just northwest of us right now...but as you lengthen the wavelengths, we'd probably get a chunk of that bleeding over the top. But essentially...classic Nina is Aleutian ridge and PAC NW trough...we are often the battle ground up here. The depth of western troughing and also the AO/NAO will play a role too in how far southeast the cold gets. Expand And it's already making charges SE on the models from time to time. People need to remember the cold can be relatively shallow. The pretty colors at 500mb won't always tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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