HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 The rest of this week looks seasonable but another warm up next week and then mild downs to normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Longer term isn't too bad. Bit of a trough over and just off the West Coast, but a pretty good ridge in AK and cold should be lurking nearby. Probably seasonable overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just one torch day on Friday 70-75.. other than that just slightly AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Step down. I’m going under the knife Thursday so I’ll probably be somewhat oblivious until the weekend at the earliest. seasonal feels cold now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 On 10/30/2017 at 10:35 PM, weathafella said: Step down. I’m going under the knife Thursday so I’ll probably be somewhat oblivious until the weekend at the earliest. seasonal feels cold now. Expand Good luck and prayers with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 On 10/30/2017 at 11:13 PM, mitchnick said: Good luck and prayers with you. Expand Thank you Mitch-means a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Baby steps down are a bit concerning. Gonna have to start picking up the pace to get a good December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 12:18 AM, Hazey said: Baby steps down are a bit concerning. Gonna have to start picking up the pace to get a good December. Expand I dunno-step down to normal seems like a nice first step to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/30/2017 at 10:35 PM, weathafella said: Step down. I’m going under the knife Thursday so I’ll probably be somewhat oblivious until the weekend at the earliest. seasonal feels cold now. Expand Wishing you a speedy recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 1:43 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Wishing you a speedy recovery. Expand Thanks Dave-in time for winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Yes, well wishes for TheFella. And I Agree, small steps down is fine for now. Still have a month to wiggle the pattern around and get it tipping more favorable for Dec. From the looks of it, we are looking decent with troughing just to our west with a good pacific. Its fine. Blowing our load in Nov won’t do much anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 12:25 AM, weathafella said: I dunno-step down to normal seems like a nice first step to me. Expand Just make sure you are fully recovered for the pattern that begins December 10th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 2:34 AM, ORH_wxman said: Just make sure you are fully recovered for the pattern that begins December 10th! Expand Lol-if I can close my left eye on 11/10 I’ll consider it a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/30/2017 at 10:35 PM, weathafella said: Step down. I’m going under the knife Thursday so I’ll probably be somewhat oblivious until the weekend at the earliest. seasonal feels cold now. Expand Good thoughts for a quick recovery. I've never had surgery--but in case you have dreams while you're under, I hope you're able to relive '78!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Can anyone post the 500 mb composite for October and November 2007 separately? TYIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 11:24 AM, weathafella said: Can anyone post the 500 mb composite for October and November 2007 separately? TYIA. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Thanks for posting that! i don’t recall forecasts for that winter but it was pretty good along the pike region and great 30 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I like the look of the euro in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 1:48 PM, rimetree said: I like the look of the euro in the long range. Expand The usual suspects will find fault. Can’t complain with the look though, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 A lot of reloading of the EPO/WPO ridging throughout the EPS run...that's a good look. It does look like more cold is going to try and bleed eastward later next week and beyond...but the general theme will still be -PNA troughing over the PAC NW, so it will be easy to see roller coaster rides in the temps...especially since any form of NAO blocking remains absent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 3:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: A lot of reloading of the EPO/WPO ridging throughout the EPS run...that's a good look. It does look like more cold is going to try and bleed eastward later next week and beyond...but the general theme will still be -PNA troughing over the PAC NW, so it will be easy to see roller coaster rides in the temps...especially since any form of NAO blocking remains absent. Expand Better a roller coaster than consistent warmth at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 4:03 PM, dmillz25 said: Better a roller coaster than consistent warmth at this time of year. Expand Climo itself says we couldn't sustain that type of continuous warmth. October was ridiculous. Can't wait to see the numbers at the big 4 stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 11:33 AM, weathafella said: Thanks for posting that! i don’t recall forecasts for that winter but it was pretty good along the pike region and great 30 miles north. Expand Most of us nailed the '07-'08 winter. We were comparing it to 1970-'71 with the swfe and gradient. Get well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 1:48 PM, rimetree said: I like the look of the euro in the long range. Expand I'm not entirely opposed to 'some' sort of colder profiled thinking in there... Thing is (and this may or may not swoop over the head...) the Pacific has entered a stable correlation between the PNA and EPO domain spaces, which is anchored perhaps a bit more in that the West Pacific Oscillation (atmospheric in nature) is in the negative phase and is modeled in the ensemble derivatives to remain that way. That WPO ...and, the MJO (which is the transient wave guide) for that matter, are in tandem sending positive (constructive) wave dynamics into this circulation.. What all that means is lay terms is that the atmosphere in the northern Hemisphere appears to have wended its way into a scenario that favors ridging in the Alaskan sector... Which I think it was Will or Scott outlined, that's a little risky early on in the season because with wave spacing seasonally still a bit dicey, the Pac NW sometimes 'tucks' ...and well, we are seeing some of that in the guidance. I am not sure I bite on that with full canines, though. I man the Euro's been trying to do outside sliders along the West Coast which seems a tad excessive. Either way, the operational version tenor of the various model camps are to bring pretty blue lines with over the top high pressure domes to southern/SE Canada. Prelude to ice? I think people also need to keep in mind that we haven't been face smacked yet by a slate gray sky at 39. That's really when it gets "easier" to start associating the weather charts to a visual-physical impression of what it may mean. I see thickness of 546 dm, with a 1030+ mb early season polar high sliding through eastern Ontario, with tendencies for overrunning overcast, ...heh, whoops! that's a whole new season compared to what we've been experiencing. Heat is on in all homes. Jackets... Gloves for some... and DP less than freezing just aching for snow grains to break out with that wood smoke smell from down the street. That's really what a lot of that look in the D8 range has. The 12z GFS has a flat wave (also) in the lower OV where the Euro used it to develop a nor'easter on the previous cycle... So, seeing as the tele's having been hitting a cooler first 10 days of November (and we did discuss this last week...) I wouldn't be shocked if something more frozen and/or freezing emerged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 5:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most of us nailed the '07-'08 winter. We were comparing it to 1970-'71 with the swfe and gradient. Get well! Expand Who is us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Always puts me into winter mode when I see the first potential Nor'easter on the long range euro charts. 12z has a tasty appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 5:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most of us nailed the '07-'08 winter. We were comparing it to 1970-'71 with the swfe and gradient. Get well! Expand November 1970 is plastered all over the analogs for later next week's pattern. Hopefully a good omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I haven't checked the Voodoo Advancement Index lately.How's the Siberian snow doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 8:57 PM, CoastalWx said: I haven't checked the Voodoo Advancement Index lately.How's the Siberian snow doing? Expand Excellent...this year, we have a huge anomaly on the Europe side of Siberia. Maybe it will actually be right this year. But I'm def not betting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 9:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Excellent...this year, we have a huge anomaly on the Europe side of Siberia. Maybe it will actually be right this year. But I'm def not betting on it. Expand Well at least it has the QBO on its side for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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