CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 10:22 AM, Damage In Tolland said: But AN to much AN Novembers in years past have not yielded good winters in New England Expand Pretty sure it's an AN November. But I think most of the AN Novembers had crap patterns and crappy Pacific. Also, I think dissecting how November works out matters. Like, if we see a change later in November into Dec.....then who cares of Novie is AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 10:42 AM, CoastalWx said: Pretty sure it's an AN November. But I think most of the AN Novembers had crap patterns and crappy Pacific. Also, I think dissecting how November works out matters. Like, if we see a change later in November into Dec.....then who cares of Novie is AN. Expand Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 This stinks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 10:47 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Good point Expand Mowvember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 12:59 PM, LurkerBoy said: This stinks! Expand That looks like last December all over again. LOL. Not saying it will be the same..just funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Given the way things are going, and considering a La Nina, the -PNA is going to be a big pattern driver the next few weeks, and possibly this winter. But if there is a -EPO and the PV is located on the North American side of the globe, I think New England will see a near normal temperature regime throughout the winter with occasional arctic intrusions. I think the eastern based orientation of the ENSO this year will cause cold air to leak further east. I'm just tired of having no blocking and being on the other side of the gradient giving us torch temps and rain in December and January. The NAO looks to be on the neutral/negative side coming up and I suspect it will stay that way and will even average out negative for DJF. All speculation, but I don't think things look terrible going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 November 1985 could end up being a good analog if that deep western trough hangs around for longer than a week or so. That month had a big -EPO ridge and a deep western trough with a ridge over the east...though as we went through the month, we had a lot of cold air bleed over the top, so the month actually finished near normal despite a pretty mild first half. There was actually a snow/ice event on Thanksgiving that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 12:59 PM, LurkerBoy said: This stinks! Expand True. Cold but too warm for snow is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 That is really cold stuff in SEA/PDX. Winter comes early there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 2:53 PM, CoastalWx said: That is really cold stuff in SEA/PDX. Winter comes early there. Expand If it pans out...that's pretty classic for getting snow to the coast in that region. Get that trough almost retrograding back SW and the sfc low to the south of PDX to have the flow offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 2:57 PM, ORH_wxman said: If it pans out...that's pretty classic for getting snow to the coast in that region. Get that trough almost retrograding back SW and the sfc low to the south of PDX to have the flow offshore. Expand Yep. Big ridge baking AK and cold sort of tucking SW there. But hey..cold Canada overall so we continue to put some money in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 2:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Yep. Big ridge baking AK and cold sort of tucking SW there. But hey..cold Canada overall so we continue to put some money in the bank. Expand I think this point can't be underestimated. The past few years southern Canada has baked. This year, quite the opposite (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 5:18 PM, LoveSN+ said: I think this point can't be underestimated. The past few years southern Canada has baked. This year, quite the opposite (so far). Expand Are you sure about that? We’ve had good EPO setups the past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 7:10 PM, weathafella said: Are you sure about that? We’ve had good EPO setups the past few years Expand Yea. 15/16 it was warm but pretty sure the previous winters was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 16-17 had a cold Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 7:44 PM, weathafella said: 16-17 had a cold Canada? Expand Last year, Canada absolutely baked in November...though it did turn cold in December for at least central and western Canada. We got some of it at times and finished near normal for temps, but we couldn't prevent the cutters so it was hard to retain snow. 2014 was the last year we had a cold Canada in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 7:48 PM, ORH_wxman said: Last year, Canada absolutely baked in November...though it did turn cold in December for at least central and western Canada. We got some of it at times and finished near normal for temps, but we couldn't prevent the cutters so it was hard to retain snow. 2014 was the last year we had a cold Canada in November. Expand Talk dirty to me brother.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 12:59 PM, LurkerBoy said: This stinks! Expand We meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 2:08 PM, Powderboy413 said: Given the way things are going, and considering a La Nina, the -PNA is going to be a big pattern driver the next few weeks, and possibly this winter. But if there is a -EPO and the PV is located on the North American side of the globe, I think New England will see a near normal temperature regime throughout the winter with occasional arctic intrusions. I think the eastern based orientation of the ENSO this year will cause cold air to leak further east. I'm just tired of having no blocking and being on the other side of the gradient giving us torch temps and rain in December and January. The NAO looks to be on the neutral/negative side coming up and I suspect it will stay that way and will even average out negative for DJF. All speculation, but I don't think things look terrible going forward Expand PNA really doesn't mean much north of NYC. Just keep the one-eyed piggie and its nasty PAC jet of a tail at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 2:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: PNA really doesn't mean much north of NYC. Just keep the one-eyed piggie and its nasty PAC jet of a tail at bay. Expand 2013 2014 like, MW hard winter bled east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 2:46 PM, LurkerBoy said: Any signs of BN/seasonable that doesn't last only 16 hours? If we could have a coolish 2nd half of Nov into New Years, I'd be happy. Feels like seasons in seasons is a thing of the past. Expand It's Nina. Season in seasons will be from MSP-DEN and points W and N for the time being. Will get some shots, but nothing too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 2:47 PM, CoastalWx said: It's Nina. Season in seasons will be from MSP-DEN and points W and N for the time being. Will get some shots, but nothing too crazy. Expand I was so pissed when this went la nina. I thought we were going to get a weak el nino last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Looks like more 70s this weekend. Any shot at #1 warmest fall? Really gross stuff. It feels nice on the skin but weighs on the mind for some strange reason. Any actual change look imminent or just rollercoaster AN like every fall the past 4 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/29/2017 at 12:11 PM, LurkerBoy said: Looks like more 70s this weekend. Any shot at #1 warmest fall? Really gross stuff. It feels nice on the skin but weighs on the mind for some strange reason. Any actual change look imminent or just rollercoaster AN like every fall the past 4 years? Expand 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/29/2017 at 12:19 PM, CoastalWx said: 70s? Expand Hey I know I'm a but I'd just like some or even more instead of . 70s look good Fri, Sat, Sun. Right? Or am I misreading the GFS? A nice weeklong stretch of BN would be gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/29/2017 at 12:29 PM, LurkerBoy said: Hey I know I'm a but I'd just like some or even more instead of . 70s look good Fri, Sat, Sun. Right? Or am I misreading the GFS? A nice weeklong stretch of BN would be gorgeous. Expand I don't know what you are looking at. Maybe 70 there on Friday, but Sat and Sun are 40s-50s there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/29/2017 at 12:29 PM, LurkerBoy said: Hey I know I'm a but I'd just like some or even more instead of . 70s look good Fri, Sat, Sun. Right? Or am I misreading the GFS? A nice weeklong stretch of BN would be gorgeous. Expand If you are seeing 70F on Sat/Sun you may need to go back to obeying your member name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/29/2017 at 12:19 PM, CoastalWx said: 70s? Expand Weenie adiabatic mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Meant Wed/Thur/Fri. I like being checked on my weenie-ness, sorry guys! (Will try to be less emotional about wx going forward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/29/2017 at 12:47 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't know what you are looking at. Maybe 70 there on Friday, but Sat and Sun are 40s-50s there. Expand his location says NY, so maybe it will happen there. he should probably check the NY forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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