Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not sure there is much support for AN temps lasting more than a day or two either in this pattern....you can look at it both ways. That's what we mean when it could be roller coaster....one can say "well, it doesn't look like sustained below normal temps" but then forget to also say "it doesn't look like sustained above normal temps".

One of them will probably win out...it's hard to fall exactly on normal over the period of about 7-10 days...but which side normal it ends up on is the question. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up -4 or +4 for that period between Halloween and Nov 8th.

 

I'd prob lean a bit above right now just based on the western trough location...but that can change as we get closer.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure there is much support for AN temps lasting more than a day or two either in this pattern....you can look at it both ways. That's what we mean when it could be roller coaster....one can say "well, it doesn't look like sustained below normal temps" but then forget to also say "it doesn't look like sustained above normal temps".

One of them will probably win out...it's hard to fall exactly on normal over the period of about 7-10 days...but which side normal it ends up on is the question. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up -4 or +4 for that period between Halloween and Nov 8th.

 

I'd prob lean a bit above right now just based on the western trough location...but that can change as we get closer.

...  -2 or +2  ...  

It's actually kind of hard to get a -4 or +4 out of diurnal ranging/means ... Think where we've been this October and it's +7 ... 

'Course I'm tipping my hat there a bit - I don't see how that pattern could physically get anywhere close to +4 squeezed out of it.  If it's 'that' hard to get to +4 ...there's no way that pattern will do it. 

Now... if the pattern changes, okay -

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...  -2 or +2  ...  

It's actually kind of hard to get a -4 or +4 out of diurnal ranging/means ... Think where we've been this October and it's +7 ... 

'Course I'm tipping my hat there a bit - I don't see how that pattern could physically get anywhere close to +4 squeezed out of it.  If it's 'that' hard to get to +4 ...there's no way that pattern will do it. 

Now... if the pattern changes, okay -

Well I was just speaking for a short 7-10 day period...not an entire month. +4 or -4 would be huge for a monthly anomaly...for 8 days? Not really that crazy.

Say we end up on the cold side of a tight gradient from an arctic high to the north for an extra 36-48 hours versus models, that could do it right there...you get a couple -9 days instead of something closer to normal. Or vice versa...some huge plains/Midwest stemwinder decides to blow up on the east side of that western trough and sticks us under a southerly flow for a day or two longer than we saw coming. Now instead of a +3 day and a -1 day, we end up with two +10 days.

 

I guess I'm mostly just saying this pattern has some high bust potential with a strongly -EPO ridging and a trough biased to the western half of the CONUS...that puts a lot of cold air in position to get us from time to time, but we could easily also just get barely grazed by it and enjoy the airmasses via the Cape Hattaras Express instead.

[CapturedNature]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of them are foreign...especially French. I think both BR and FU are from the French words for mist and smoke.

lol...What happened to K or L?

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yeah I've been getting that alot recently on this site

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well I was just speaking for a short 7-10 day period...not an entire month. +4 or -4 would be huge for a monthly anomaly...for 8 days? Not really that crazy.

Say we end up on the cold side of a tight gradient from an arctic high to the north for an extra 36-48 hours versus models, that could do it right there...you get a couple -9 days instead of something closer to normal. Or vice versa...some huge plains/Midwest stemwinder decides to blow up on the east side of that western trough and sticks us under a southerly flow for a day or two longer than we saw coming. Now instead of a +3 day and a -1 day, we end up with two +10 days.

 

I guess I'm mostly just saying this pattern has some high bust potential with a strongly -EPO ridging and a trough biased to the western half of the CONUS...that puts a lot of cold air in position to get us from time to time, but we could easily also just get barely grazed by it and enjoy the airmasses via the Cape Hattaras Express instead.

yeah no my bad duh.  that's obvious, 6 days of dumb luck can f up a good look either direction - haha

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah no my bad duh.  that's obvious, 6 days of dumb luck can f up a good look either direction - haha

No worries....I think if this was winter (or even 3-4 weeks from now) with the longer wavelengths, we'd be hitting the BN theme a little harder with the way that EPO ridging looks.

[Dan76]

13 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah I've been getting that alot recently on this site

Same here

[SR Airglow]

Nice shoutout from BTV to the picnic tables.

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...Water vapor tells the story this
morning with deep negatively tilted and closing off mid/upper
level circulation over the southern Mid Atlantic Coast. This
cyclonic circulation will track over southern New England by
this evening with surface low pres near Portland Maine by 00z
this evening. Nearly perfect winter track for big snows across
our cwa...only if temps were cooler. Expecting periods of rain
to continue from the eastern dacks into VT...with occasional
bursts of moderate rain for the CPV and parts of central/eastern
vt this aftn/evening. RAP/HRRR show well defined backside
deformation developing across our CPV/central VT between 21z-02z
this evening...associated with low level northerly flow and mid
level easterly winds...helping to advect deep layer
moisture/lift back into our cwa. Have sharpened the west/east
gradient in the pops/qpf fields with highest values from the cpv
and points east. Thinking qpf will range between 0.25 and 0.50
cpv to over 1.0" western slopes into most of central/eastern VT
by 12z Friday. No hydro related issues anticipated. Temps will
hold steady mainly 40s to near 50s...but only l/m 30s summits.

For the snow lovers...have gone ahead and added some additional
detail into the grids...as thinking when best lift/moisture
arrives this aftn...column cools just enough to support a heavy
wet snow...mainly above 3500 feet by this evening. RAP 850mb
temps drop below 0C by 22z for the Green Mtns...supporting a
change over to wet snow by sunset...for the summits. The
combination of favorable upslope 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to
35 knots and strong dynamics will help to support a period of
moderate wet snow near the summits of the Green Mountains from
Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington overnight. Current thinking
a dusting to 2 inches between 2700 and 3500 feet with 2 to 5
inches above 3500 feet by Friday Morning. Looking forward to
seeing some pictures from the picnic tables on Mansfield from
our Stowe spotter. Meanwhile...Whiteface already at 0C...but
best moisture will be east of this region...so only a light
accumulation for the high peaks...dusting to couple inches above
3500 feet.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Nice shoutout from BTV to the picnic tables.

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...Water vapor tells the story this
morning with deep negatively tilted and closing off mid/upper
level circulation over the southern Mid Atlantic Coast. This
cyclonic circulation will track over southern New England by
this evening with surface low pres near Portland Maine by 00z
this evening. Nearly perfect winter track for big snows across
our cwa...only if temps were cooler. Expecting periods of rain
to continue from the eastern dacks into VT...with occasional
bursts of moderate rain for the CPV and parts of central/eastern
vt this aftn/evening. RAP/HRRR show well defined backside
deformation developing across our CPV/central VT between 21z-02z
this evening...associated with low level northerly flow and mid
level easterly winds...helping to advect deep layer
moisture/lift back into our cwa. Have sharpened the west/east
gradient in the pops/qpf fields with highest values from the cpv
and points east. Thinking qpf will range between 0.25 and 0.50
cpv to over 1.0" western slopes into most of central/eastern VT
by 12z Friday. No hydro related issues anticipated. Temps will
hold steady mainly 40s to near 50s...but only l/m 30s summits.

For the snow lovers...have gone ahead and added some additional
detail into the grids...as thinking when best lift/moisture
arrives this aftn...column cools just enough to support a heavy
wet snow...mainly above 3500 feet by this evening. RAP 850mb
temps drop below 0C by 22z for the Green Mtns...supporting a
change over to wet snow by sunset...for the summits. The
combination of favorable upslope 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to
35 knots and strong dynamics will help to support a period of
moderate wet snow near the summits of the Green Mountains from
Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington overnight. Current thinking
a dusting to 2 inches between 2700 and 3500 feet with 2 to 5
inches above 3500 feet by Friday Morning. Looking forward to
seeing some pictures from the picnic tables on Mansfield from
our Stowe spotter. Meanwhile...Whiteface already at 0C...but
best moisture will be east of this region...so only a light
accumulation for the high peaks...dusting to couple inches above
3500 feet.

Just once I'd like to see the name powderfreak in their afd.

[WxBlue]

12 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Nice shoutout from BTV to the picnic tables.

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...Water vapor tells the story this
morning with deep negatively tilted and closing off mid/upper
level circulation over the southern Mid Atlantic Coast. This
cyclonic circulation will track over southern New England by
this evening with surface low pres near Portland Maine by 00z
this evening. Nearly perfect winter track for big snows across
our cwa...only if temps were cooler. Expecting periods of rain
to continue from the eastern dacks into VT...with occasional
bursts of moderate rain for the CPV and parts of central/eastern
vt this aftn/evening. RAP/HRRR show well defined backside
deformation developing across our CPV/central VT between 21z-02z
this evening...associated with low level northerly flow and mid
level easterly winds...helping to advect deep layer
moisture/lift back into our cwa. Have sharpened the west/east
gradient in the pops/qpf fields with highest values from the cpv
and points east. Thinking qpf will range between 0.25 and 0.50
cpv to over 1.0" western slopes into most of central/eastern VT
by 12z Friday. No hydro related issues anticipated. Temps will
hold steady mainly 40s to near 50s...but only l/m 30s summits.

For the snow lovers...have gone ahead and added some additional
detail into the grids...as thinking when best lift/moisture
arrives this aftn...column cools just enough to support a heavy
wet snow...mainly above 3500 feet by this evening. RAP 850mb
temps drop below 0C by 22z for the Green Mtns...supporting a
change over to wet snow by sunset...for the summits. The
combination of favorable upslope 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to
35 knots and strong dynamics will help to support a period of
moderate wet snow near the summits of the Green Mountains from
Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington overnight. Current thinking
a dusting to 2 inches between 2700 and 3500 feet with 2 to 5
inches above 3500 feet by Friday Morning. Looking forward to
seeing some pictures from the picnic tables on Mansfield from powderfreak. 
Meanwhile...Whiteface already at 0C...but
best moisture will be east of this region...so only a light
accumulation for the high peaks...dusting to couple inches above
3500 feet.

 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just once I'd like to see the name powderfreak in their afd.

How about this now? 

[weatherwiz]

Did anyone know 40's are now 42oz?  That's awesome!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

Winter turbines out there

[dendrite]

Haven't tried them yet, but these guys just opened up down the road.

https://www.facebook.com/kettleheadbrewing/

for you beer snobs that come up here it's right off the highway.

[backedgeapproaching]

Bluwave posted this in the NYC thread..pretty interesting:

 

Replying to @NWSSanDiego San Diego Miramar NAS, CA, hit 106°F today. This is the highest temp for any station / any year in the U.S. between Oct 25 and Mar 13.#cawx

View conversation ·

[OceanStWx]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

brouillard

fumee

You and X try those on the girls in Sherbrooke?

[Hazey]

Kinda funny but kinda true.

https://www.theonion.com/fall-canceled-after-3-billion-seasons-1819569446

[Typhoon Tip]

Can't drink ... haven't had a drop in two years.  I don't have any glaring health concerns, and in fact ... 'work out regularly, eat well, drink lots of water and organic juices, and sleep plenty -blah blah.  

But, for some reason, any drinking for any period of time ...I risk ending up with this gout bs.  Since I altered that imbibing behavior out of my life-style entirely, I have had ... maybe three minor flair ups over the last couple years that were easily handled with anti-inflammatory meds like Advil or whatever.  Before I stopped?  hobbled -  ..sometimes twice inside of ten days, and I rarely got more than three weeks peace before some other thing. All the while "looking" as though I were entirely healthy - f'n weird man. It was a condition I never had in my life and had to learn about, once I just sort of slipped into a regularity of deleterious nightly habits and it eventually got to me in that way.  Welp - no more of that..

I just had to decide how I was going to live: in agony with spirits and cigars, or, clean with forgettably rare periods of time in only minor discomfort.  I chose the latter, and one faithful night that was it - cold abandonment.  Which others have told me they were impressed that I was actually able to do?  Which I find curious - I think maybe there is some conflating ...or perhaps over-willingness to label alcoholism to someone, when what they really have (such was my case...) was no buffer and self-reinforcing behavior.  I just needed to break that cycle - done.

I don't really miss it. It may be inconceivable for many to envision hangin' out with their spheres of friends, even in pub settings, feeling comfortable with a ginger-ale and cranberry, but every single time...and I mean every single one, on the way home I have an internal whisper in my mind that says, 'God, am I glad I didn't have anything'.  My age being middling at this point, probably helps that admittedly.  

There were some beers that I really did enjoy - primarily, I was a micro-brew guy.  I found some really good hop beers, like "Sixth Glass" ..or some more obscure Indian Ales that I gosh can't even remember.  My poison used to be, daily, drinking a bottle of wine, and chase that with a 10% Sixth Glass beer, while periodically stepping out onto the porch to burn through a blunt.  ..I was even inhaling some of that tobacco. Not gonna lie...that was a great combination. Very soothing while it was happening... And, the thing is, my body had adjusted to it to the point where I had no hang-overs per se - what I was getting though was systemic crisis' sort of coming gradually on..  All of it, gone.  No worries... much better place to be.  Now, I could prooobably be okay with one or two beers say three times a month hangin with the bro's when their wives let them out to play (ha) ...etc., but at this point, what's the point?  Until I can answer that, I guess I'm a none drinker in practice, but not permanently required not to, and that's a good place to be for me. 

I'm still thinking that Novie 2/3 through the 10th or 12th could be wintery earlier than normal here.  I don't care about the operational Euro doing the -EPO crunch job with the wave spacing out in the west of North America - in fact ... though the obvious southwest tuck bias of that mode was by and large corrected years back...I still sense that look is sort of vestigial in that regard, and that flow could end up rolled out a bit more... In fact, that almost looks like a prelude to an ice/mix thing - course that's getting way ahead me-self - heh!  I'll be honest, I have been longing for a front-end loaded winter like a plaguing childhood crush that you've just witness marrying and a-hole seems like a void ya never have a prayer getting filled.  Granted, "loaded" may be a bit pricey in terms of expectations...however, I have seen enough events and cold Novembers to know it's not impossible to cach-in early in general, and I don't recall the last time I saw such a predominating -EPO signal like that which has taken hold of the teleconnector suite.  So long as that index behavior persists, we can worry about the details later.  

[ORH_wxman]

We are def kind of "due" for a front loaded winter....I remember a few years back we were saying how much we were due for a stretch of crappy Decembers because we had been buried in front loaded delight all through the 2000s....really starting with 2000 itself. In addition, you have the big front-loaders like Dec 2003, Dec 2005, Dec 2007, Dec 2008.....how lucky we were in that stretch....even Dec 2009 was pretty good before the rest of the winter kind of shat the bed after the New Years retro job. Well I think we can say that mother nature heard our musings...she paid us back with some hideous Decembers in the past 6-7 years.

I would say this year is as good as any to get back to a big December. 2013 was pretty decent though it really had an epic Grinch to ruin the feel...worse than our typical Grinch storms.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha!  right ...   

just to add to that - I don't even really consider that renegade lucky timed slosh coastal with a high pressure slipping east through Ontario, particularly if said event is book ended by a bend-over patterns and the ground is bare otherwise that year. I mean, of course it's nice while it's happening.. But that's not what I have in mind. 

Like, a hemispheric driven real chance at laying down a pack and retention early - sort of what I suspect you're getting at citing those years. 1995 was the ultimate king in that regard  ...but that's obviously slipping generations as reference at this point.  Keeping it to the more relevant 2000's yeah.. agreed, it seems the oft annoying "due" argument kinda sorta does fit unfortunately, huh - maybe we can normalize things.  

That all said... obviously we are aware that November is dicey at best to begin with... so, what we are talking about (like you specified) was keyed more into Dec awareness... but, I've always had a private sort of thought that so long as the noon sun can barely climb above the southern pines, it's always just a matter of the Hemispheric tenor alone... Having a -EPO like this?  damn that's a sweet table sets. Jesus.   (1995 was a -NAO autumn btw ..so perhaps interesting historically if we could some how get to a similar result from a Pac loader .. that would be cool!)

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha!  right ...   

just to add to that - I don't even really consider that renegade lucky timed slosh coastal with a high pressure slipping east through Ontario, particularly if said event is book ended by a bend-over patterns and the ground is bare otherwise that year. I mean, of course it's nice while it's happening.. But that's not what I have in mind. 

Like, a hemispheric driven real chance at laying down a pack and retention early - sort of what I suspect you're getting at citing those years. 1995 was the ultimate king in that regard  ...but that's obviously slipping generations as reference at this point.  Keeping it to the more relevant 2000's yeah.. agreed, it seems the oft annoying "due" argument kinda sorta does fit unfortunately, huh - maybe we can normalize things.  

That all said... obviously we are aware that November is dicey at best to begin with... so, what we are talking about (like you specified) was keyed more into Dec awareness... but, I've always had a private sort of thought that so long as the noon sun can barely climb above the southern pines, it's always just a matter of the Hemispheric tenor alone... Having a -EPO like this?  damn that's a sweet table sets. Jesus.   (1995 was a -NAO autumn btw ..so perhaps interesting historically if we could some how get to a similar result from a Pac loader .. that would be cool!)

Nov 1995 was def unique in its near-perfection of a pattern...if only the mid November HV runner had been a little further east, then we'd really be talking about that winter in lore more than it already is. Still, we managed to lay down snow not too long after that and never have it totally melt off...December 1995 of course was near-perfect.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nov 1995 was def unique in its near-perfection of a pattern...if only the mid November HV runner had been a little further east, then we'd really be talking about that winter in lore more than it already is. Still, we managed to lay down snow not too long after that and never have it totally melt off...December 1995 of course was near-perfect.

 

 

 

That's actually interesting Will..  I don't actually recall that year being assisted that much by the EPO.  I really remember actually seeing -NAO flow constructs quite frequently though - 

'Course, I also remember December 9 was 9 F walking over snow banks in downtown Boston that year; kinda hard to get THAT sort of cold at that early a date without an EPO drive so ...perhaps it was just a convergence of teleconnectors that really parlayed.   Man that was amazing though -

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

That's actually interesting Will..  I don't actually recall that year being assisted that much by the EPO.  I really remember actually seeing -NAO flow constructs quite frequently though - 

'Course, I also remember December 9 was 9 F walking over snow banks in downtown Boston that year; kinda hard to get THAT sort of cold at that early a date without an EPO drive so ...perhaps it was just a convergence of teleconnectors that really parlayed.   Man that was amazing though -

Yeah, I mean you can see how December was definitely dominated more by the NAO....but there was def some EPO ridging up there...prob more like WPO ridging to be more accurate. November had the better Pacific pattern, but the climo of December really got juiced with that great NAO. That block extending into the Hudson region was actually a savior in the December 14, 1995 clipper system that went on steroids...that would have been on of those NNE or St. Lawrence tracks without it...but instead it sort of just got squeezed underneath us just barely and that compression of the WAA from the south and the block to the north gave us an overperforming clipper (2-5" turned into 6-9")....I remember that day well...we got an early release from school and I was home by 1pm and noticed it was 14F with moderate snow....not a really common thing in mid-December. I didn't realize how weird the climo was at the time, but rather, made a comment on how this December was so different from last (1994) December....the two were polar opposites.

[Typhoon Tip]

it's true - 

1993-1994 was the epitome of a mid to late winter

1994-1995 was ...well, a no-winter (save for a hyper bomb around Feb 5th and a back side icy cold shot...)

1995-1996 was a front -loader; however, post the mid thaw, it did back load a bit

three winter, all pretty much were climate 101 course work in what happens around here.  every year since then has been some perversion of any one of those in a lot of ways...

[moneypitmike]

what a coc day today is!

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's true - 

1993-1994 was the epitome of a mid to late winter

1994-1995 was ...well, a no-winter (save for a hyper bomb around Feb 5th and a back side icy cold shot...)

1995-1996 was a front -loader; however, post the mid thaw, it did back load a bit

three winter, all pretty much were climate 101 course work in what happens around here.  every year since then has been some perversion of any one of those in a lot of ways...

The cold of 1994 before the mid-February breakdown (and subsequent thaw) was pretty amazing. January 1994...multiple big snow events that seemed to always scare us with a little sleet mixing in (even ZR once or twice) before the midlevel warmth retreated and snow resumed...and those events always seemingly got followed by these (at the time) unimaginable brutal cold shots. The type where it is 21F at 7am and by 4pm it is 4F with a raging NW wind...helping solidify any poor bastard's slushy snow banks at the end of his driveway that he hadn't gotten around to clearing yet...the road salt and sand mixed in were relegated useless by that point. We had a few days where the high temps were flirting with 0F that month. Then February comes in and it doesn't stop...back to back moderate snow events just to raise the snow banks higher. The thaw during February break that year though was kind of brutal. 

You are totally right about 1994-1995...it was literally a 10-14 day winter....almost all confined to that first two weeks of February 1995. We had the big storm and then the incredible cold shot...I recall lows in the -10 to -12 range with wind. The cold slowly moderated over the period of a week or more so we did keep that snow pack for a large chunk of the month...but we literally never got anything else. It was brutal. March gave us a trace of snow...and then as if that winter hadn't sucked enough, Mother Nature gave us one more punch to the nuts with an early April cold shot that graced us with high temps in the 20s despite full sunshine in April. Windy as hell too. Of course, that airmass didn't produce a spring blue bomb or anything either to take the sting out of "useless cold". One of my top 3 worst winters in my life...pathetic. 

 

1995-1996 did have that comeback late in the year. Early march was actually pretty solid with multiple events and very cold temps at times and then we got the back to back April blue bombs...the 2nd one being the more prolific of the two. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We are def kind of "due" for a front loaded winter....I remember a few years back we were saying how much we were due for a stretch of crappy Decembers because we had been buried in front loaded delight all through the 2000s....really starting with 2000 itself. In addition, you have the big front-loaders like Dec 2003, Dec 2005, Dec 2007, Dec 2008.....how lucky we were in that stretch....even Dec 2009 was pretty good before the rest of the winter kind of shat the bed after the New Years retro job. Well I think we can say that mother nature heard our musings...she paid us back with some hideous Decembers in the past 6-7 years.

I would say this year is as good as any to get back to a big December. 2013 was pretty decent though it really had an epic Grinch to ruin the feel...worse than our typical Grinch storms.

In my Maine experience, a true front-loaded winter is rare.  If December brings a lot of snow, it's almost certain that the winter will finish AN.  2003-04 is the glaring exception, with the two storms in the 1st half of the month being 51% of the entire winter's production.  (My two most snowy NNJ winters - 60-61 and 66-67 - also had big Decembers.)

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

In my Maine experience, a true front-loaded winter is rare.  If December brings a lot of snow, it's almost certain that the winter will finish AN.  2003-04 is the glaring exception, with the two storms in the 1st half of the month being 51% of the entire winter's production.  (My two most snowy NNJ winters - 60-61 and 66-67 - also had big Decembers.)

I wasn't necessarily prefacing that a "front loaded winter" meant the season finished below normal...I consider 2008-2009 and 2007-2008 both front loaded winters but the seasons finished above average for snowfall...it is just they both had weak Feb/Mar combos (usually one of the two was below average enough to drag down the pair as a whole).

 

The term is kind of subjective admittedly. Where does the cutoff begin for a "front loaded winter" vs a "wire to wire winter" or "well rounded winter"....like 2000-2001 could fall into that gray area. You could call it a back loaded winter because the snowfall in February and March was incredible....but December and January actually produced slightly above average snowfall each month here...so do we call that a back loaded winter or a wire to wire (or well rounded) winter? Subjective terms often cause confusion like that. Feb and Mar were far superior to Dec/Jan that winter...it's not even close....yet, Dec/Jan by themselves were fine months for winter lovers.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

what a coc day today is!

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wasn't necessarily prefacing that a "front loaded winter" meant the season finished below normal...I consider 2008-2009 and 2007-2008 both front loaded winters but the seasons finished above average for snowfall...it is just they both had weak Feb/Mar combos (usually one of the two was below average enough to drag down the pair as a whole).

 

The term is kind of subjective admittedly. Where does the cutoff begin for a "front loaded winter" vs a "wire to wire winter" or "well rounded winter"....like 2000-2001 could fall into that gray area. You could call it a back loaded winter because the snowfall in February and March was incredible....but December and January actually produced slightly above average snowfall each month here...so do we call that a back loaded winter or a wire to wire (or well rounded) winter? Subjective terms often cause confusion like that. Feb and Mar were far superior to Dec/Jan that winter...it's not even close....yet, Dec/Jan by themselves were fine months for winter lovers.

It's a good conjecture point for subjectivity ...why not?  We all know 'kinda' what those three mean, and of course there's some personal bent to each (hence the subjection). 

For me, front loaded (and this can even be graded relative to its self) has to be white for the holidays.  That's just kind of a mandatory base-line requirement to get a passing grade. If it snowed 40" between t-giving and Dec 15, but then we get an Indian Summer Hades style and turn football fields into lakes for Xmas, that's a C- for me. You can take ur 40 and jam it up your practical joker bum!  hahaha.  Hell, if we get frets and starts of snow, scrap it together...then get reward by say a humdinger on the 17th of Dec that stays through the first week of January? I'd almost give that B or even B+ ...  A's though?  That's a snow event on Novie 16 or something, with proficient cold to keep it around... with refit events before the snoglober for Xmas it's self...  Although, hmm.. I might be will to give an A- to a front characterized winter as long as you can ice skate on still rivers and town ponds on thanks-giggedy.  No snow for Xmas, ...may as well skip the final. 

I mean ... its fun to muse.  If we wanna get mathematical about it, I suppose we could say, Dec snowy is a front loader, period... Back built is snowy Feb (with the March caveat of course).