Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 I was just checking out the numbers on NWS' 'unofficial' web source and the climo sites are +7.5ers across the board. Despite that... there were actually 3 or 4 days that finished below normal if you can believe it. ... Good thing a few well spoken crafty words smiths with access to data have firmly denied there is any correlation between October and ensuing winters, and everyone rationalized it's truth ...otherwise we might be worried. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Eric Fisher has mentioned (multiple times I think) that of the top 10 warmest met Autumns (I assume for SNE climo sites?), 9 have had warm winters with below normal snowfall. I am thinking we will be in that group when all is said and done at the end of Novie. I could be completely wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Eric Fisher has mentioned (multiple times I think) that of the top 10 warmest met Autumns (I assume for SNE climo sites?), 9 have had warm winters with below normal snowfall. I am thinking we will be in that group when all is said and done at the end of Novie. I could be completely wrong... They probably had a crappy novie pattern. If November has the same garbage, winter is probably skunked. Fortunately we look to change it once November comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They probably had a crappy novie pattern. If November has the same garbage, winter is probably skunked. Fortunately we look to change it once November comes. That depends on if the pattern change to start November is a sustained one or just a temporary one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just now, leo2000 said: That depends on if the pattern change to start November is a sustained one or just a temporary one. Well true, but at least the weeklies look decent. And I can't stress this enough..you need to look at the bigger picture. The cold will likely plunge into the Plains first and that's fine. That is still a good sign that we have EPAC ridging and the cold is there in Canada. We absolutely do not want to see the one eyed pig in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Eric Fisher has mentioned (multiple times I think) that of the top 10 warmest met Autumns (I assume for SNE climo sites?), 9 have had warm winters with below normal snowfall. I am thinking we will be in that group when all is said and done at the end of Novie. I could be completely wrong... Theres a few mets that think this winter is going to be good. The vast majority are ratting it. Hopefully minority rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 70F at 1:00 pm on Oct 24th...We don't toss. Lots of crashing and banging around these parts. That's the sound of records breaking.I thought you were going to say acorns. New snowmobile trailer looks like it went through a hail storm. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Theres a few mets that think this winter is going to be good. The vast majority are ratting it. Hopefully minority rules I'm leaning not so great, but not a total ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Theres a few mets that think this winter is going to be good. The vast majority are ratting it. Hopefully minority rules I have't seen many outlooks yet.....where are all of these that you are referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They probably had a crappy novie pattern. If November has the same garbage, winter is probably skunked. Fortunately we look to change it once November comes. Exactly. People keep trying to read too much into October, when it just doesn't mean much. If anything, it has an inverse correlation. If we had snow right now, the same people would worry about what that means for winter. Maybe winter will suck, but I'd bet against that happening if November features a sustained flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly. People keep trying to read too much into October, when it just doesn't mean much. If anything, it has an inverse correlation. If we had snow right now, the same people would worry about what that means for winter. Maybe winter will suck, but I'd bet against that happening if November features a sustained flip. I mean, I def think that some long term stuff can be voodoo. We can also get hit with a big event or two even in an overall crappy pattern, which can make a previously rat winter enjoyable... Perhaps the last 6 weeks will be a forgotten chapter prior to a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I mean, I def think that some long term stuff can be voodoo. We can also get hit with a big event or two even in an overall crappy pattern, which can make a previously rat winter enjoyable... Perhaps the last 6 weeks will be a forgotten chapter prior to a good winter. I'm not trying to rule anything out....winter could certainly suck, but I just haven't seen enough to conclude that as of yet. I'm liking December and maybe March, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 57 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm leaning not so great, but not a total ratter. I’d agree for the most part... anywhere from 50-75% average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 9:28 PM, powderfreak said: No way... Flashing is a fantastic way to alert drivers of something coming up. People flash each other in VT all the time that I've seen...more so than what I grew up with in NY. If there's a cop, you get flashed and repay the favor. People flash for deer, or anything else along the road or in the road that may lead to an incident. It definitely causes you to "perk up" and pay attention. I don't get why the first reaction would be "this guy is being an a**hole." I always think another driver is trying to be helpful. I do this all the time on my late night drives to and from the office. But I also think there is a big difference to people if you are flashed by opposing traffic vs. someone coming up behind you. When I'm on the highway passing traffic in the left lane and someone decides to pull up to my bumper and start flashing, that's when I get a little annoyed. I get the emergency situation argument, but my guess is that most tailgate jockeys aren't in an emergency situation but just want to get by faster. You can still stay a safe distance from the car in front of your and flash your high beams to let them know you would like to get by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Eric Fisher has mentioned (multiple times I think) that of the top 10 warmest met Autumns (I assume for SNE climo sites?), 9 have had warm winters with below normal snowfall. I am thinking we will be in that group when all is said and done at the end of Novie. I could be completely wrong... Glad we don't live there. Keith Carson did something similar for his Sugarloaf blog, and found basically an even split between above and below normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Glad we don't live there. Keith Carson did something similar for his Sugarloaf blog, and found basically an even split between above and below normal snow. People would be scared to death of a flip if October were -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People would be scared to death of a flip if October were -5. It's true. Almost the scored too soon mentality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I post in this subforum, predominantly, because I not only enjoy the discussion (And posters, herein), but this region is the most likely one to provide a prospective blizzard chase. That aside, I'm more of the mindset that it's still way too early to know how this season will ultimately evolve. Seen too many that appeared destined to disappoint, only to see a significant pattern-change that produced an over-performer ('14-'15, anyone?). Simply put, I won't be fretting unless, or until, the various teleconnections appear unfavorable...and it's mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 At this point the woodstove won't be lit until thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I’m going above avg snowfall from nepa to maine, normal for the coastline, rat talk deez nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 You def want to worry at least a bit if November is a torch....esp in a La Nina. There's been a lot more torch Novembers in El Nino that turned out to be a good winter anyway than the same thing happening in La Nina. But there's been exceptions...1975 and 1983 both had torch Novembers but the pattern flipped in time to produce big December cold/snow. 1983 was a very warm autumn overall too. More recently, 2007 was a very warm La Nina autumn, but November managed to turn the switch. Thankfully, at least at the moment, the weeklies and the ensembles are not screaming for a torchy November pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 thoughts: i think it may be worth it not to conflate (necessarily) temperature anomaly distribution with pattern recognition. not that any one is, but ... whether November ends up above normal or not to me is probably less important than 'how' exactly that may or may not come to be. I'd take a +PNA Novie that was merely bias west enough that the EC happened to average in a humid southerly atmosphere, over a flat looking wave construct that keeps swathing Pac putrescence, Chinook cooked winter lover despair. Both would probably get you similarly warm biased for the month but there's a big difference there in the base-line wave orientation. ...I wouldn't toss a warm novie in a western ridge for any reason. Yeah... people want it snowing on the heels of Hallow's eve and honestly ...I've always had a kind of coveted mantra about fair game between that day and ~ Easter... But one is a winter enthusiasts in this social media. The other thing, am I reading it right that most are dreading La Nina? The graphics I've seen for NINA related pattern forcing isn't bad for areas n of roughly Mason Dix. In fact, that under-cut western ridge with a higher arcing polar jet that tends to favor an off-load -EPO flow vector... that can often get us on the cool side of confluence and overrunning stuff, and generally a fertile grounds for cyclogen instability in the means in that look. I'm a bit confused if why/if folks are apprehensive there - unless they don't winter.. I am also less impressed with just about any ENSO event that is taking place in a well masked system. What I mean by that is, with just about all oceanic basins of the Globe averaged above normal, it seems the NINO stuff would get a little less significant unless it was exceptionally large.. 'Nother way to look it is that all the conjecture related to, heretofore, assumes some idealized state in which those anomalies would be more likely to express; when the system's sort of verkokte to begin with - that leaves a helluva big gap in the door way to uncertainty there, in terms of just how a modest (so far) NINA is even capable of enforcing a circulation. interesting. Still going with a N/S year ... Flip a coin... it may just end up that way in terms of temp and prec departures... though, I'd nod to decimals above normal just for base-line GW's sake. The offset AO(EPO/NAO) ... bide time on those and see where the behavior is landing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: thoughts: i think it may be worth it not to conflate (necessarily) temperature anomaly distribution with pattern recognition. not that any one is, but ... whether November ends up above normal or not to me is probably less important than 'how' exactly that may or may not come to be. I'd take a +PNA Novie that was merely bias west enough that the EC happened to average in a humid southerly atmosphere, over a flat looking wave construct that keeps swathing Pac putrescence, Chinook cooked winter lover despair. Both would probably get you similarly warm biased for the month but there's a big difference there in the base-line wave orientation. ...I wouldn't toss a warm novie in a western ridge for any reason. Yeah... people want it snowing on the heels of Hallow's eve and honestly ...I've always had a kind of coveted mantra about fair game between that day and ~ Easter... But one is a winter enthusiasts in this social media. The other thing, am I reading it right that most are dreading La Nina? The graphics I've seen for NINA related pattern forcing isn't bad for areas n of roughly Mason Dix. In fact, that under-cut western ridge with a higher arcing polar jet that tends to favor an off-load -EPO flow vector... that can often get us on the cool side of confluence and overrunning stuff, and generally a fertile grounds for cyclogen instability in the means in that look. I'm a bit confused if why/if folks are apprehensive there - unless they don't winter.. I am also less impressed with just about any ENSO event that is taking place in a well masked system. What I mean by that is, with just about all oceanic basins of the Globe averaged above normal, it seems the NINO stuff would get a little less significant unless it was exceptionally large.. I agree on the method in which the warm pattern occurs...and it's probably more important to parse when it occurs versus the arbitrary 11/1-11/30 date bounds...some years like 1983 and 1975 were warm across a good chunk of the plains and northeast, but a clear pattern change was happening in the middle of the month...the latter half of the month featured a much more meridional pattern out of the EPO and/or PNA regions with good blocking up north versus the first half of November where it was just an ugly one eyed Cyclops over Alaska with a firehose of PAC garbage over most of North America. As for La Nina, I haven't seen too many in here afraid of La Nina by itself...that would certainly be more of a worry to the south from NYC and especially toward DC. But La Ninas that produce a warm/low snow Decembers are definitely a problem in New England a lot more than an El Nino that does the same...simply because La Nina climo tends to be front loaded...so yeah, punting an important month in the context of La Nina climo would be bad for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Who do I contact regarding a virus pop up on AmX? not sure anyone is getting it but this is the only site I get the pop up. Next time it happens I will take a screenshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Who do I contact regarding a virus pop up on AmX? not sure anyone is getting it but this is the only site I get the pop up. Next time it happens I will take a screenshot. It happens on my iPhone a lot ... I just swipe the page closed and tried again... but then I gave up when it seemed to do so every time. It doesn't occur on PCs (that I'm aware...) which does 'sort of' lend to the notion that it's mischievous and intended for specifically hand-held devices. The next question, does it differentiate between Android and Apple devices.. or does it happen on both? I suspect, however, it's an aggressive ad. I just don't dare prove it by pushing any buttons - pushing any actionable button on a system that is inherently requiring software of any kind is a death wish. Frankly ... it's a mystery why this particular social/web outlet is more popular than the other Eastern one ever was. I understand that the functionality of that one was turned off while the actual theft (in principle) was taking place, but it came back on line... only, sans any users. Wow, what a lucky break for those that have turned this into a profit means - they had to do nothing to metriculate users that ...what? actually WANT to look at commercials. I think we're all kinda doing oblivious to how we are allowing ourselves to be slaved to getting a select few fat wallets. This was never about that in prior inheritance of this sort of social media - it was about the science and anecdotal/conjecture, first. Not their get rich idea - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 It only happens on my iphone as well Tip. I just close the page out deff do not click on anything. But its pretty annoying because I have fat fingers and if I am not paying close attention (which is very often) then I could easily click on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 If you catch something like that let me know and I'll pass it along to John. That shouldn't be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 The virus pop up is happening to my Iphone as well. It's gotten to the point where this site is almost impossible to look at on the IPhone. It's a "virus alert" which is obviously a scam because iphones don't get viruses but it renders the page useless until you close it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 It's weird to not be afraid of La Nina for once. These events are usually death sentence for snow lovers below DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Tomorrow looks to me like it could be a bit gusty...at least in western in central CT. Was going with 10-20 mph with gusts a bit higher in my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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