Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: last race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: No one said 50’s everywhere which is what he said was said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Looks like we may be on our way to a record October, though. Better now than DecemberMaybe December will torch tooSent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 How robust is this cool shot coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Watch how quickly that Tubbs fire raced SW towards STS last week. This is only a 10 hour loop, but the fire moved quite a bit that Sunday evening in only a couple hours. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171009_goes16_ShortwaveInfrared_NearInfraredSnowIce_CA_fires_anim.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 For DIT gypsy fascination. Bet he wishes it was his oaks. Ledyard — Five red oak trees in the front yard of a Seabury Avenue home that fell victim to the statewide infestations of gypsy moth caterpillars are gone, but going to a good cause. Bill Hakkinen said two of the trees in his front yard died in previous infestations of the caterpillars, whose population soared in southern New England in 2016 after a stretch of dry weather and have stripped foliage from thousands of acres of trees. The other three sprouted leaves this spring, he said, but by summer it was clear they, too, were victims of the caterpillars' munching. "They're just not going to survive," he said. http://www.theday.com/local-news/20171018/death-of-5-red-oaks-killed-by-gypsy-moths-could-have-silver-lining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ran in shorts and short sleeves. Sweaty . No 30’s anywhere in Tolland or Vernon 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well no one said that did they? You do know that your posts are saved on here right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Dammit you beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 NCEP models dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Bobcat spotted in Wrentham. http://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/bobcat-spotted-in-wrentham/article_9b07348f-c150-5c81-b3ae-6d29b103c8d1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, MarkO said: NCEP models dead? Looks ok to me https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm amazed to see some MOS products capping climo by 19 for Saturday and Sunday... jesus. Lows in the mid 40s by night? ...heh, I wonder. Nights are long but are they long enough. If the air mass really is on the order of +4 or +5 SD heat like that, one must wonder if climate normalizing is tainting that That's a decnt sprawling high over us on the weekend...looks like a radiator special. MOS mins verified near freezing on the last one despite relatively warmer 850s so I'm hesitant to doubt them this go around. Mixing could be weak, but maybe we get a few hours of better return flow Sunday. The atmosphere wants to be warm. +13C would easily support 80F at the sfc. Maybe Monday ends up the warmer day with better mixing? I'd lean on MOS max temps getting eclipsed by a couple degrees and the lows for the radiating sites being close to the machine values. Maybe bump the mins up for those who stay mixed all night...like a BTV or ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Watch how quickly that Tubbs fire raced SW towards STS last week. This is only a 10 hour loop, but the fire moved quite a bit that Sunday evening in only a couple hours. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171009_goes16_ShortwaveInfrared_NearInfraredSnowIce_CA_fires_anim.mp4 It's extremely odd and unlikely for those fires to all start at the same time. Like Portugals 300 in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: You do know that your posts are saved on here right? lol Dude .. he said I said everyone was in 50’s. That’s not what was said . if a few low spots between hills hit the 30’s.. ok . But most folks were way warmer. But you guys making stuff up and calling me a liar gets really really old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Bobcat spotted in Wrentham. http://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/bobcat-spotted-in-wrentham/article_9b07348f-c150-5c81-b3ae-6d29b103c8d1.html And one in Windham, ME https://mobile.twitter.com/LiamNee/status/921148903151538177/video/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Maybe instead of D.I.T. we use T.I.T. Torchy In Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Bobcat spotted in Wrentham. http://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/bobcat-spotted-in-wrentham/article_9b07348f-c150-5c81-b3ae-6d29b103c8d1.html Tons of them in my town and in surrounding areas, although I have never seen one. A coworker of mine who lives in Leominster had a family of them in her yard 2 years ago. Another friend of ours here in Hubbardston had a den near the end of their driveway for a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: That's a decnt sprawling high over us on the weekend...looks like a radiator special. MOS mins verified near freezing on the last one despite relatively warmer 850s so I'm hesitant to doubt them this go around. Mixing could be weak, but maybe we get a few hours of better return flow Sunday. The atmosphere wants to be warm. +13C would easily support 80F at the sfc. Maybe Monday ends up the warmer day with better mixing? I'd lean on MOS max temps getting eclipsed by a couple degrees and the lows for the radiating sites being close to the machine values. Maybe bump the mins up for those who stay mixed all night...like a BTV or ORH. With evapotranspiration processes stopping up north, and continuing to slow down south, there's definitely a trend for larger diurnal ranges and relatively dry conditions just adds to that. It's that radiator time of year... similar to early spring when the sun gets up but the trees aren't awake yet. You get those warm afternoons and chilly nights. The temperature is rarely the same for very long when the skies are clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe instead of D.I.T. we use T.I.T. Torchy In Tolland. TIT is very sad about the NOAA winter forecast. Lots of pingers and lots of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: TIT is very sad about the NOAA winter forecast. Lots of pingers and lots of warmth. He thinks less than 20, good luck. NOAA puked on their summer forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Anyone got a recap of the weeklies? They're broken on WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe instead of D.I.T. we use T.I.T. Torchy In Tolland. Tormented In Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Will this be the warmest Oct on record for anyplace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 I think Boston is top 5 warmest and all but 1 actually occurred over 50 years ago. We've certainly have had torchy October's before. Between now and Wednesday though we will make a run for more warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: It's extremely odd and unlikely for those fires to all start at the same time. Like Portugals 300 in one day. I thought I read somewhere that arson was to blame for a lot of what is going on in Portugal. It sounds like they are still investigating CA fires, but I've seen some speculation that downed power lines may have contributed. And with 60-90 mph gusts on some of those coastal hills I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: I thought I read somewhere that arson was to blame for a lot of what is going on in Portugal. It sounds like they are still investigating CA fires, but I've seen some speculation that downed power lines may have contributed. And with 60-90 mph gusts on some of those coastal hills I could see that. I'll never understand that mentality. How does one get off on starting a wildfire. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll never understand that mentality. How does one get off on starting a wildfire. I dunno. Bosart's map discussion of the event was pretty fascinating. Those 2 km simulations accurately showing a 65 mph wind max on the downstream slopes in Sonoma County were impressive. Conditions were just perfect for that to occur. Move the inversion 50 mb either way and it probably doesn't get as extreme as it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Bosart's map discussion of the event was pretty fascinating. Those 2 km simulations accurately showing a 65 mph wind max on the downstream slopes in Sonoma County were impressive. Conditions were just perfect for that to occur. Move the inversion 50 mb either way and it probably doesn't get as extreme as it did. I actually glossed over those, but I should take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I actually glossed over those, but I should take a look. They are long, but when I saw it was about the CA fires I carved out a half hour to go through it all. I talked to my sister in SFO a few days ago, and that Sunday she and her boyfriend were taking some college friends through Sonoma County for wine tasting. They could see a fire from one of the wineries and asked about it. The winery told them it's nothing to worry about, that it's pretty typical for places to burn brush after the harvest. Oops. It's a good thing they headed home when they did though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: They are long, but when I saw it was about the CA fires I carved out a half hour to go through it all. I talked to my sister in SFO a few days ago, and that Sunday she and her boyfriend were taking some college friends through Sonoma County for wine tasting. They could see a fire from one of the wineries and asked about it. The winery told them it's nothing to worry about, that it's pretty typical for places to burn brush after the harvest. Oops. It's a good thing they headed home when they did though. I took a peak. Kind of reminds me a bit of the Osippee downslope event. Completely different wx occurred obviously, but that profile probably wasn't too far off to help take a strong mtn top wind ans accelerate it downward. COMET has a good module on mtn wave and downslope winds. I'd be fascinated if your WFO ever ran a case study on that. It still blows my mind. The locals keep talking about it. What's also interesting is that it caused damage at my friends place on Squam (downwind from Red Hill) and also in the higher hills around Center Harbor. Yet nothing where we are on the Center Harbor/Moultonboro line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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