powderfreak Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 High of 53F so far this afternoon in the valley...finally a seasonable day with some chill. Too bad it was 57F at 2am last night but 53F at 2pm, so it'll be a cheap high. It's 49F up here at the base of the ski resort, with some breeze. Feels like October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Whatever. Most sites were well BN in those last few days of August into the first week of Sep. The point still stands. I don't care if we're running +15F so far...if the pattern is right we could still be damn cold for November. C'mon, you of all people know how extreme it can get from one month to the next. Yeah that's a weird post by him...usually he's fairly reasonable on how departures can behave. I wonder if we all cancelled winter after the first 10 days of October 2007 came in at +9. First 10 days of December that same year? -9.1 at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Why is it exactly that sometimes when supercell storms ride along a boundary that can enhance the "helicity" within the storm? Also, see this hodograpgh....what causes that sudden downward notch? Are the axis on the x and y winds in m/s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Why is it exactly that sometimes when supercell storms ride along a boundary that can enhance the "helicity" within the storm? Also, see this hodograpgh....what causes that sudden downward notch? Are the axis on the x and y winds in m/s? First question: Helicity is just a measure of area "under" the hodograph. More turning = more helicity. Boundaries are local areas of turning winds. Storms gain cyclonic rotation with higher amounts of streamwise vorticity (component along the mean wind). But a warm front or FFD is a good place to find higher amounts of streamwise vorticity. Hence storms that ride a boundary will tend to enhance their cyclonic rotation relative to other storms. (more info from just prior to VORTEX: https://www.usna.edu/Users/oceano/barrett/SO441/markowski_richardson_2009.pdf) Second question: Looking at the raw data there is a 240-245 wind at 32 knots just below 2 km that would account for that notch. It also appears that the hodograph is in knots, but you may see them in m/s from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: First question: Helicity is just a measure of area "under" the hodograph. More turning = more helicity. Boundaries are local areas of turning winds. Storms gain cyclonic rotation with higher amounts of streamwise vorticity (component along the mean wind). But a warm front or FFD is a good place to find higher amounts of streamwise vorticity. Hence storms that ride a boundary will tend to enhance their cyclonic rotation relative to other storms. (more info from just prior to VORTEX: https://www.usna.edu/Users/oceano/barrett/SO441/markowski_richardson_2009.pdf) Second question: Looking at the raw data there is a 240-245 wind at 32 knots just below 2 km that would account for that notch. It also appears that the hodograph is in knots, but you may see them in m/s from time to time. Thank you!! I was helping a classmate with his project (he's doing the EF5 in Moore, OK from 2013) and I explained how he should talk about how the storm seemed to ride the boundary which can enhance storm rotation but didn't know how to explain clearly...this helps a great deal. I didn't think to look at the raw data...good note to keep in mind for the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: First question: Helicity is just a measure of area "under" the hodograph. More turning = more helicity. Boundaries are local areas of turning winds. Storms gain cyclonic rotation with higher amounts of streamwise vorticity (component along the mean wind). But a warm front or FFD is a good place to find higher amounts of streamwise vorticity. Hence storms that ride a boundary will tend to enhance their cyclonic rotation relative to other storms. (more info from just prior to VORTEX: https://www.usna.edu/Users/oceano/barrett/SO441/markowski_richardson_2009.pdf) Second question: Looking at the raw data there is a 240-245 wind at 32 knots just below 2 km that would account for that notch. It also appears that the hodograph is in knots, but you may see them in m/s from time to time. One other question...remember a while back you explained the difference between a backing wind and a veering wind and how some describe backing winds with severe wx and some with cold air advection and such. Trying to explain it to someone that you can use backing winds when talking about severe wx but it depended on how you referenced it. How did you explain that again? What I was trying to say was it had to do with how the winds evolved over time (so like if sfc winds transitioned from SW to SE over time...that was backing) or if you're talking about the wind fields from the upper levels to the lower levels...the winds would be turning counterclockwise with decreasing height (backing) while if you went with increasing altitude they're turning clockwise with height (veering) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: One other question...remember a while back you explained the difference between a backing wind and a veering wind and how some describe backing winds with severe wx and some with cold air advection and such. Trying to explain it to someone that you can use backing winds when talking about severe wx but it depended on how you referenced it. How did you explain that again? What I was trying to say was it had to do with how the winds evolved over time (so like if sfc winds transitioned from SW to SE over time...that was backing) or if you're talking about the wind fields from the upper levels to the lower levels...the winds would be turning counterclockwise with decreasing height (backing) while if you went with increasing altitude they're turning clockwise with height (veering) It all depends on your frame of reference. Are you describing winds at a point over time, or winds at a point with height. Say from 18-21z your wind direction changes from S to SE. Your wind has backed. But at the same location looking aloft your winds may change from S at the surface to SW aloft. You have veering winds with heights. When you talk about advection, you're talking about changes in wind with height mostly. Veering = WAA, backing = CAA. The reason is that winds and generally westerly aloft, and assuming that veering winds mean you have a southerly component in the low levels (warm), backing winds mean you have a northerly component in the low levels (cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Looks like a couple mornings of frost coming up. Still have a few plants near the house that survived the early September frost/freeze that the wife wants covered. I don't understand covering of plants in the fall...I mean just delaying the enevitable....but here I go to cover them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 37 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It all depends on your frame of reference. Are you describing winds at a point over time, or winds at a point with height. Say from 18-21z your wind direction changes from S to SE. Your wind has backed. But at the same location looking aloft your winds may change from S at the surface to SW aloft. You have veering winds with heights. When you talk about advection, you're talking about changes in wind with height mostly. Veering = WAA, backing = CAA. The reason is that winds and generally westerly aloft, and assuming that veering winds mean you have a southerly component in the low levels (warm), backing winds mean you have a northerly component in the low levels (cold). This is great!!! Thanks so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Nice cold downpours right now. 48F and moderate rain. Feels like deep fall out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 46 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice cold downpours right now. 48F and moderate rain. Feels like deep fall out there. Today really felt raw, even though we didn't see any rain up here. Temps slipping down through the 40s at work and a few pulses of wind had me breaking out the jacket and hat when outside. Slate gray sky though with virga looking streaks to the south that almost looked like snow. A very cold season type view and appeal. It is amazing you are raining or having downpours with how dry it is aloft just to your north. Mount Washington is in the 15-17% range for Relative Humidity the past couple hours... 39/-4 while you are raining, lol. KMWN 112255Z 35009KT 100SM SCT015 BKN030 OVC160 04/M20 RMK VIRGA OHD AND SE-NW SH DSNT S-SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's a weird post by him...usually he's fairly reasonable on how departures can behave. I wonder if we all cancelled winter after the first 10 days of October 2007 came in at +9. First 10 days of December that same year? -9.1 at ORH. He seems to have meltdowns over not getting record cold anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Nice cold downpours right now. 48F and moderate rain. Feels like deep fall out there.Wish we could cash in on the rain, but it's drying up before it gets hereSent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Wish we could cash in on the rain, but it's drying up before it gets here Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk So far it looks like you are missing out on 0.05-0.20" of rainfall... wouldn't sweat it too much. Very dry airmass edging south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Wish we could cash in on the rain, but it's drying up before it gets here Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk I can definitively say we got more rain at the office today than I thought we'd get. A "T" that's just about evaporated already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Had a few sprinkles here around 6PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Welp, Trump appears to have nominated Barry Myers at head of NOAA. Preview of Ekster and I in a few months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 0.14" so far with more incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 What's a good amount of money to have to storm chase in the Plains for like a week? What would be a comfortable amount to bring? I wouldn't go alone...probably 3-4 people. Would $1000 per person be sufficient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What's a good amount of money to have to storm chase in the Plains for like a week? What would be a comfortable amount to bring? I wouldn't go alone...probably 3-4 people. Would $1000 per person be sufficient? I've been two years in a row for two weeks and I usually end up spending about 300-500 on food, and roughly 60 a night for a hotel. Seems like 1000 would be fine as long as you aren't fine dining every night, staying at expensive hotels, or driving a hummer up and down the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: I've been two years in a row for two weeks and I usually end up spending about 300-500 on food, and roughly 60 a night for a hotel. Seems like 1000 would be fine as long as you aren't fine dining every night, staying at expensive hotels, or driving a hummer up and down the plains. I'm perfectly fine with McDonalds everyday and don't care what type of hotel as long as it's cheap. As long as they sell 40's of Steel Reserve in the Plains I'm golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: I'm perfectly fine with McDonalds everyday and don't care what type of hotel as long as it's cheap. As long as they sell 40's of Steel Reserve in the Plains I'm golden. You should have plenty then with $1000. Love chasing. Had two great experiences, two years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What's a good amount of money to have to storm chase in the Plains for like a week? What would be a comfortable amount to bring? I wouldn't go alone...probably 3-4 people. Would $1000 per person be sufficient? Gas station hot dogs are pretty cheap. That amount per person with 3-4 people should be fine. I assume you aren't including the flight in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm perfectly fine with McDonalds everyday and don't care what type of hotel as long as it's cheap. As long as they sell 40's of Steel Reserve in the Plains I'm golden. May want to avoid OK and their watered down beer then. Though I would avoid OK anyway. Chaser convergence is not my idea of a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: You should have plenty then with $1000. Love chasing. Had two great experiences, two years in a row. I need to go badly 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Gas station hot dogs are pretty cheap. That amount per person with 3-4 people should be fine. I assume you aren't including the flight in that. Yeah I would just drive 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: May want to avoid OK and their watered down beer then. Though I would avoid OK anyway. Chaser convergence is not my idea of a good time. Yeah given all the stories about OK I think I would avoid that state. I've even considered like doing the northern Plains...MT/ND/SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 If you want to do northern plains and avoid a lot of chaser convergence, just make sure you go later in the season. Usually more late may/early june, as this is the favored climatological period for the northern plains. Scenery is much better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I need to go badly Yeah I would just drive Yeah given all the stories about OK I think I would avoid that state. I've even considered like doing the northern Plains...MT/ND/SD. Careful of the road network, you may have trouble staying on a storm with limited options. WY/CO/NE/NM high plains are nice. Western KS too, but that will be busy on a big day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 late May/early June works b/c I'd be done with school. Road network is certainly another issue to deal with. I wouldn't mind CO or WY so I could get pounded by hail. I would love hail dents in my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Core punching is not something I would generally suggest. Not sure about you, but I really don't want baseballs (or bigger) coming down on my vehicle, which has glass windows. Additionally, if you are in the hail, you won't be seeing the potentially amazing structure of the supercell itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Does anyone have any suggestions on what to explore for broadcast weather graphics? I've reached out to The Weather Company (formerly WSI), and Baron but have not heard back and I've done so much googling. But at school all we use is powerpoint with less than attractive graphics and its really embarrassing. As treasurer for the meteorology club, my mission to to enhance the tools we have to work with and make the school more competitive. I'm trying to do a ton...like get bufkit installed (and working properly), get GR lvl 2 radar installed, get full a great modeling package (which I'm going to propose what Amwx offers ), and so much more. It sucks composing a broadcast and using graphics that look horrific...and using Powerpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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