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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the late night wedging helped. But the wiping was two rolls deep prior. I was packing the car, and commented on how steamy it felt. Straight up KEYW for EEK. His tropical garden in LCI FTW.

Yeah Sunday morning was pretty nasty. I went into my garage in shorts and a tee and was a little chilly, but the windows were steamed up so I knew it would be sultry outside. I can easily tolerate high dews if the temp is relatively cool. 72/68 house = okay. 77/68 = a long night.

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS has a sneaky freeze chance at CON Friday the 13th with that high despite relatively warm 850s. That probably spells a big shallow inversion where the rad pits tickle 32F, I'm at 37F, and the 1kft+ hills are 42F.

It usually takes forever for my first killing frost.  Places down below will be in the upper 20's and I'll still miss it.  That 42F will be right on...   the settlers that built my house in 1795 were smart to build up high with a south sloping exposure.  Long seasons on both ends and protection from the NW wind.  

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29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS has a sneaky freeze chance at CON Friday the 13th with that high despite relatively warm 850s. That probably spells a big shallow inversion where the rad pits tickle 32F, I'm at 37F, and the 1kft+ hills are 42F.

Not so sneaky anymore. I updated the low temp forecast to knock CON to freezing (from 37). Sorry day shift, overruled. 

13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

It usually takes forever for my first killing frost.  Places down below will be in the upper 20's and I'll still miss it.  That 42F will be right on...   the settlers that built my house in 1795 were smart to build up high with a south sloping exposure.  Long seasons on both ends and protection from the NW wind.  

No snow up to thy knickers. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the late night wedging helped. But the wiping was two rolls deep prior. I was packing the car, and commented on how steamy it felt. Straight up KEYW for EEK. His tropical garden in LCI FTW.

Man you guys make me thankful for the dews up here.  We got up very briefly up into the mid-60s but mostly 50s/low 60s this weekend... while humid for this time of year, there's a decent sensible difference between low 60s and upper 60s to low 70s.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man you guys make me thankful for the dews up here.  We got up very briefly up into the mid-60s but mostly 50s/low 60s this weekend... while humid for this time of year, there's a decent sensible difference between low 60s and upper 60s to low 70s.

Wedgy. 

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6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Yeah but until then there's maybe a day or two of -1 or -2 "cold" in the next 7-10 days. But, I'm sure a month that starts out -8 is right around the corner!

The cold is in the Rockies. Lost of -5 to -7 there. It's also in Siberia. Between the ridging and leftover heat from tropicals...I'm not surprised at the torchy start on the East Coast.

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23 hours ago, tamarack said:

Light to occasionally moderate rain 8 AM on yesterday, tapering to dz in the evening, 1.01" for cocorahs this morning.  Puddles all sucked into the soil - 1.5" in 2 days, it's a nice start to perhaps make up for the deficit June 1 onward.

Didn't do much to cut the deficit here, 0.55" for the total

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30 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

First 10 days of September:

BDL -4.7

ORH -4.4

BDR -3.8

CON -3.3

MHT -3.0

PVD -2.6

BOS -2.2

PWM -1.3

Clearly last month's start was nothing like this month's.

Whatever. Most sites were well BN in those last few days of August into the first week of Sep. The point still stands. I don't care if we're running +15F so far...if the pattern is right we could still be damn cold for November. C'mon, you of all people know how extreme it can get from one month to the next.

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40 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

First 10 days of September:

BDL -4.7

ORH -4.4

BDR -3.8

CON -3.3

MHT -3.0

PVD -2.6

BOS -2.2

PWM -1.3

Clearly last month's start was nothing like this month's.

I was talking more about where I live...

Look up MVL/MPV/1V4...or go August 20-Sept 10 or thereabouts.

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it's a fake chilly surface result ...  whatever the hell that means. 

but, it's definitely an over-top pattern.   strip away the lower tropospheric features and you're left with a historic ridge look - whether it actually is or not. the top of the ridge cresting and breaking through Ontario, and we end up with surface high moving back N of the region underneath.  probably straight up down soundings from the top of the boundary layer to almost 700 mb with that.  an icer in 45 days .. 

once we get out ... jesus, 300 hours or so?  the look may change, so suggested by the long range tele modes/modalities.  which of course can change...  

by the way ... HFD, PVD and ORH all running 8 and change over climo for the first 10 days of the month. i'm actually surprised it's not more. interesting

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Whatever. Most sites were well BN in those last few days of August into the first week of Sep. The point still stands. I don't care if we're running +15F so far...if the pattern is right we could still be damn cold for November. C'mon, you of all people know how extreme it can get from one month to the next.

Winter cancel.

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Where's @CT Rain to call me out on the TDS?

Seriously though, we have someone sending us damage pictures from 8/22/17 today or tomorrow. He thought the damage was a nice, straight swath so he GPSed the locations of the photos.

We took a dig through the radar data and I have to say I'm not totally sure what I'm looking at. Vr shear at or below 25 knots, NROT around 0.7, environment was favorable for brief tornadoes. I was looking at BOX radar at the time, added the "tornado possible" tag to the SVR, and mentioned brief tornadoes in NWSChat. From 210z to 212z there was a low CC area that pops up around the area of concentrated damage. It is normal for the velocity couplet to be ahead of a TDS since the radar scans reflectivity first, velocity second. BUT ZDR is high (like 3.5-4 db), you would expect it to be near 0 if that's truly debris.

kbox_20170823_0210_BR_0.4.thumb.png.e61b8ff4e66415d3955a4aa78d2638e8.png

kbox_20170823_0212_BR_0.4.thumb.png.40e81b9d5b54f9bb4ea7d3323fa3cb95.png

Now there is this reflectivity spike around the freezing level that could point towards water-coated hail. That could account for lower CC and high ZDR.

kbox_20170823_0213_BR_1.2.thumb.png.3ba047c2ac951e6c6c4ef005d6b74e71.png

We sent the data to the training branch to see if they have any insight. Because if that is debris, it's around 7-8 kft and that would be bordering on significant tornado. Something you would think we'd here more about in the last two months.

 

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