Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

It stopped transmitting last night as it was getting dark.  Gave it a new battery, but it never came back online.

I'd get a new transmitter board from scaled instruments. Just swap the boards out. I forget...do you have the original analog sensor or digital? It may be time to get a new, shiny $45 SHT31 sensor too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't mean to cut into the mystique of the moment in here this morning as we celebrate a nice homage at long last to seasonality moving toward colder times.. .

but that is an impressive ridge signal this week.  It's been in the models for days (obviously), but last night's 00z and 06z runs of the GFS operational finally have decent 850 mb temperatures rattling around underneath the ridge. So, the 84 F for Thursday being 20 or so F above climate ...that's pretty impressive MOS handling for day 4.5 - beyond 72 hours, climate starts muting anomalies. 

One thing I'm still seeing, though..  that tendency to not sustain eastern positive geopotential anomalies in general, that kicked in around the end of the last cold season ...is still there. Case in point, the ridge evaporates with certain rapidity by next weekend.  All ll guidance seem to honor a quasi -EPO (sort of) emerging construct/flow type (though fast) down stream of the NE Pac. It may be that the ridge in S-SE will still be there but we start the tamping/gradient thing - hence the speed of the flow.  

Other than that, still monitoring the TC anomaly/look across the SW Atlantic Basin D5 - 11 ... It's probably the last hurrah...  There's several features out there...  Three TUTTs all have a near-by concentrations of convections NOT directly associated with the TUTT itself, but benefiting on the exhaust mechanics of the TUTT in their maintenance.  Any of these could be watched as they move W toward the western Caribbean and Gulf. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't mean to cut into the mystique of the moment in here this morning as we celebrate a nice homage at long last to seasonality moving toward colder times.. .

but that is an impressive ridge signal this week.  It's been in the models for days (obviously), but last night's 00z and 06z runs of the GFS operational finally have decent 850 mb temperatures rattling around underneath the ridge. So, the 84 F for Thursday being 20 or so F above climate ...that's pretty impressive MOS handling for day 4.5 - beyond 72 hours, climate starts muting anomalies. 

One thing I'm still seeing, though..  that tendency to not sustain eastern positive geopotential anomalies in general, that kicked in around the end of the last cold season ...is still there. Case in point, the ridge evaporates with certain rapidity by next weekend.  All ll guidance seem to honor a quasi -EPO (sort of) emerging construct/flow type (though fast) down stream of the NE Pac. It may be that the ridge in S-SE will still be there but we start the tamping/gradient thing - hence the speed of the flow.  

Other than that, still monitoring the TC anomaly/look across the SW Atlantic Basin D5 - 11 ... It's probably the last hurrah...  There's several features out there...  Three TUTTs all have a near-by concentrations of convections NOT directly associated with the TUTT itself, but benefiting on the exhaust mechanics of the TUTT in their maintenance.  Any of these could be watched as they move W toward the western Caribbean and Gulf. 

Thursday looks to be a good shot of 80+ as long as we get a good gradient in and mix. With the sun fading this time of year...I tend to look for the mixing to reach the big temps. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday looks to be a good shot of 80+ as long as we get a good gradient in and mix. With the sun fading this time of year...I tend to look for the mixing to reach the big temps. 

 

yeah, mixing is important!  in fact.... that facet is related to why this ridge has been eye-rolling more so than anything else in previous guidance cycles.  The timing of the lower troposphere was off. 

what i mean by that is that the big high settles overhead ...but then shifts more E than S of the area... That pinches off the continental return flow of air - that imposed two limitations: one, it kept mixing low, so we just ended up with ridic inverted sounding right up to the 500 mb level.  also, doesn't allow the warm air at critical mixing depths to actually get over our region.  it's been like the models were ballooning a ghost ridge - they've been hell-bent on keeping the lower troposphere cool (and winning at doing so!) cool relative to the complexion of the flow even when it could get hot, since May so... heh, was pretty sure they would succeed at creating near historic heights to no avail...

anyway, last night's GFS runs did make that look more "mixable" as well as having more to mix - so we'll see. it's not the most entertaining Meteorology on the planet but... it's something -

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Alex, colors look good there.  Very different from cam view.   The point click had you at 31F.  I figured you over perform!

The camera points towards an area that's mostly aspens and black cherry, so they just don't do much. This view is from my new cabin, where we are currently living, looking at West Mountain (the west ski trails of Bretton Woods, which you can see on the top). Colors are not great but decent!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking forward to 80F again!  Hope it stays through March...or hope it stays for eternity 

Hoo ho, man - this statements of yours takes some serious neolithic sized stony balls 'round deez parts..  Fightin' words :)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hit 38.2* here in Shelburne.

Meanwhile, this is in the 'not too likely' category at this point, but it's not beyond possibility I could find myself heading to the Syracuse area.  Of course, the mere prospect of living in an area of LE is appealing.  I just came across this 31-hour radar loop.  Imagine just missing this?  Toaster bath.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...