Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think the foliage will be ok. I feel like every year we poopoo it early and it ends up at least normal. 

I know we do but I think something happened in the mountains this season.  The North Country isn't anything like my past years photos on this date for late September.  Tons of leaf drop and even bare trees in the Village mixed with green and brown.

[powderfreak]

I'm out of town now but looks like today's highs were about 25F lower than the minimum temps in recent days.

40-41F all day at the summits when the mins were mid-60s during the heat.  Wind chills in the 20s up high today lol.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

I have some DDH Fort Point at home actually. That sounds like a good place to start tonight.

Next step is Tree House though, I may just bite the bullet and drive out of my way on the next trip home to see the parents.

How you haven't gone there yet is just mind boggling. Few hour drive 

[Weatherexpert]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

PVD to 79...strong CAA though working in at 850mb.  Wonder how high they can make it today

Strong currents working through the cold front. They will make it high today. The CAA is putting a strong frontal microbial reading. Trust the data 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

VD-07 had meat on its bones - BTV's 25.7" had 1.94" LE and came with temps in the singles.  Jan. 2-3, 2010 brought them 35.3" on just 0.91" LE (high end ratio for LES!) and had temps 20s and teens.  It built a 5" pack to 26", but 4 days later (w/o rain or temps above 26) it had shrunk to 15"..The 2007 event lifted depth from 6" to 30", and a week later (with 0.6" dusting on 2/18) BTV still had 23" OG.  I'm sure 2 days of watching feathers was fun for the weenies, but the earlier storm probably had 10X the impact.

Yeah Valentines Day required bucket loaders to clear the snow...you could leaf blow the other one haha.  

Though even still that 2010 liquid seems low.

The difference in the impact was that it was only BTV into the west slopes.  Stowe had like 6" and JSpin even had much less than BTV.  It was like right over the Lake where the persistent orographic and set up due to extreme blocking.  

I did enjoy the 2010 storm from my girlfriends in BTV.  Because the forecast was for 4-8" or something.  I remember waking up and being like no f'in way...there was 20" on the table outside and still dumping.  Anything proved for 4-8" that brings feet is a fun storm regardless of what happens days after haha.

 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How you haven't gone there yet is just mind boggling. Few hour drive 

My parents go like every couple weeks lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My parents go like every couple weeks lol.

Yeah I mean you have to . If you drink beer , you make it a point to go there and move your schedule around.

[powderfreak]

Looks nice back home with highs in the upper 50s even in the mountain valleys, 40s in the mid-slopes.

I leave after 3-4 days of extreme heat and this afternoon it's 52F at the office.

Going from AC to heat in 24-36 hours...30s tomorrow morning.

 

 

[tamarack]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah Valentines Day required bucket loaders to clear the snow...you could leaf blow the other one haha.  

Though even still that 2010 liquid seems low.

The difference in the impact was that it was only BTV into the west slopes.  Stowe had like 6" and JSpin even had much less than BTV.  It was like right over the Lake where the persistent orographic and set up due to extreme blocking.  

I did enjoy the 2010 storm from my girlfriends in BTV.  Because the forecast was for 4-8" or something.  I remember waking up and being like no f'in way...there was 20" on the table outside and still dumping.  Anything proved for 4-8" that brings feet is a fun storm regardless of what happens days after haha.

 

If it's ASOS, I think we know why.  Elsewhere, I've seen 80:1 ratios from that data source.   Maybe about 1.5" would have been more reasonable, still almost 25:1.

[bobbutts]

Putting on long pants and shirt

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

If it's ASOS, I think we know why.  Elsewhere, I've seen 80:1 ratios from that data source.   Maybe about 1.5" would have been more reasonable, still almost 25:1.

Yeah it was certainly meso-scale fluff but that does seem more reasonable.  It was similar to snow you find in a nor'easter deform band when it's cranking silver dollars.

[powderfreak]

This is interesting from BTV... 19 days and counting without measurable precipitation.  

MVL had a whopping 0.02 this morning with the FROPA soon more streak there...but MPV is still going at 21 days.

The record dry stretch in 1903 is insane though for BTV.  52 days without measurable precip...what a spring that must've been.

.CLIMATE...
Several spots across the area now have one of the driest
stretches on record with no measurable precipitation or
precipitation at all:

For Burlington, based on records back to January 1884 here are
the 10 longest stretches on record with no measurable
precipitation:

1. 52 days from April 17 - June 7, 1903
2. 25 days from October 9 - November 2, 1924
3. 23 days from August 13 - September 4, 1894
4. 22 days from February 9 - March 2, 1978
4. 22 days from December 16, 1917 - January 6, 1918
4. 22 days from February 17 - March 10, 1901
7. 20 days from October 5 - 31, 1963
8. 19 days from October 9-27, 1947
8. 19 days from March 25 - April 12, 1941

***19 days currently from September 10, 2017 through September
 28, 2017. Last date of any precipitation at BTV was September
 9, 2017 with 0.01 inch.

For Montpelier, this is the second longest stretch without
measurable precipitation dating back to June 1, 1948. The
current stretch of 21 days started September 8th through today.
Only January 2-February 1, 2003 at 31 days had a longer stretch
with no measurable precipitation officially recorded.

[Damage In Tolland]

Up to 16 days here. It is desert dry. Torched lawns. Vegetation wilted 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I graduated a long time ago.  Just went back for some refresher classes.  

Double Dry Hopped Fort Point Ale

Double Dry Hopped Summer Street

Vicinity DIPA

Mettle DIPA

Scaled Up DIPA

Farnsworth Street DIPA

 

 

So I tried the Farnsworth and Fort Point.  I must say the Farnsworth was noticeably better.  Much more fruity and aromatic and the flavors popped.  Enjoyed that from 1st to last sip.  The Fort Point was good but the aroma was of alcohol which carried into the taste.  Can is dated the 14th of Sept.  I'll pass judgement till I have another but the hype may be less than warranted.

[SouthCoastMA]

Are those birds on the radar moving south? The blob is now in SRI

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Up to 16 days here. It is desert dry. Torched lawns. Vegetation wilted 

[powderfreak]

First mention of snow of the season in the BTV AFD...lol that 4-5000ft band really only applies to a few peaks in the Adirondacks...BTV still great at discussing the peaks more than the lower elevations if that's where the interesting weather is, ha:

Also interesting are the temperature profiles. The latest 00z guidance indicates that 850mb temperatures will be hovering close to 0c overnight across the northern half of the area. That would support a snow level down to about 4000 feet, with any opportunity for accumulation generally above 4500 feet. When overlaying those snow levels with where the bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall, we come up with the possibility of a little snow accumulation (<1") on the highest peaks of the Adirondacks (eg: Mt Marcy and whiteface). For where people live, lows will be in the 40s, and close to 50f adjacent to Lake Champlain.

[powderfreak]

SLK down to 28F with clear skis.

Checking in on home I expected it to be in the 30s but seems like it never cleared in the Greens.  

I cant find anything on radar but the ASOS is showing -RN and temps in the mid-40s.  Odd.

METAR KMVL 290854Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC050 07/05 A3001 RMK AO2 RAB35 

[HoarfrostHubb]

38.0F here

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

[eekuasepinniW]

There is nothing OK about this.

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

There is nothing OK about this.

Deal with it.

[CoastalWx]

Sucky day tomorrow. Cold rain and temps in the 50s (40s NH) with maybe a rumble of thunder. Should be better after 3pm or so. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is close to snow even down to 2-3K across central NH. 

[LaxSki]

Our place at Mt Snow Vt is at 2000 ft after this past week of heat and humidity it would be great to see some Snow. Could always hike up if the Peak gets some!!!!

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is close to snow even down to 2-3K across central NH. 

Really?  The NCEP maps never go below 0C at 850 in VT or NH on the 6z run it seems.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Really?  The NCEP maps never go below 0C at 850 in VT or NH on the 6z run it seems.

Considering GFS warm bias, deformation, and lifting in DGZ...I could see that on top of Ossipees for example. 

 

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

There is nothing OK about this.

Should of packed it up when the Monarch left the other day, Crisp outside this morning, Low was 39°F.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Considering GFS warm bias, deformation, and lifting in DGZ...I could see that on top of Ossipees for example. 

 

Ahh ok gotcha.  I thought you were talking verbatim and am on the phone so just saw the crude maps.  Just looked warm but there is some mid-level fronto north of the low.

[tamarack]

Did not check the thermometer this morning, but noted the frozen dew on the pickup roof. 
Mean temp yesterday was 12F less warm than the day before, still +5.6.  Sept. 13-28 has run +9.5, by far the most impressive 10+ day AN period I've recorded in 20 Septembers, and that following the -8.7 for Aug 24-Sept 3, most impressive 10+ day BN run in summer.  The month will finish about +3, and nearly a dead heat with 2015 for 2nd mildest Sept., 1.3F behind 1999.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahh ok gotcha.  I thought you were talking verbatim and am on the phone so just saw the crude maps.  Just looked warm but there is some mid-level fronto north of the low.

Yeah, I mean it's sort of thinking out loud here...and we'll never know given nobody is there at 3K..LOL. But..it's not impossible. That's why I said close to snow. Had to make some educated assumptions.