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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i wonder how many old heat records are tainted by poor siting 

Yeah...ASOS is roided up with forced aspiration and instrumentation so responsive that they need to keep running 5 minute averages to represent the current temp. It's kinda apples and oranges compared to the late 19th century and first half of the 20th century using passive stevenson screens and liquid thermometers.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...ASOS is roided up with forced aspiration and instrumentation so responsive that they need to keep running 5 minute averages to represent the current temp. It's kinda apples and oranges compared to the late 19th century and first half of the 20th century using passive stevenson screens and liquid thermometers.

I started with a Stevenson/Cotton Region Shelter in 1985 with liquid thermometers and still use them today specifically so I can compare readings.  The only thing different is the siting due to moves but I think it's important to be able to compare data to use the same equipment.  I do make sure the readings are still valid with a reference instrument though.

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1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

66F here with dense fog.

61° here this morning.  The fog was interesting as it was fairly dense driving across town but around 800' it cleared and there was clear blue skies with the sun shining above that.  I expected to hit the fog on the other side of the mountain but I never really did until I got down to around 300'.

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12 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

61° here this morning.  The fog was interesting as it was fairly dense driving across town but around 800' it cleared and there was clear blue skies with the sun shining above that.  I expected to hit the fog on the other side of the mountain but I never really did until I got down to around 300'.

Yeah I went running at 4:30 and it was completely clear and starlit and 65. All the fog was in the valleys

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12 hours ago, MetHerb said:

I started with a Stevenson/Cotton Region Shelter in 1985 with liquid thermometers and still use them today specifically so I can compare readings.  The only thing different is the siting due to moves but I think it's important to be able to compare data to use the same equipment.  I do make sure the readings are still valid with a reference instrument though.

Can't say what the Farmington co-op observer uses, but there's still a Cotton Region shelter in his front yard.

Very dense fog, visibility <1/8 mile, for the morning drive, though it cleared out from Belgrade south.  This month has edged ahead of 2015 for 2nd mildest of 20 Septembers, but remains 1.3F cooler than 1999.  Unless these last 5 days run nearly +15, we'll not catch #1 - today and tomorrow will hold serve (yesterday was +17), but by Fri-Sat temps should be back near normal, which is 63/41 for those dates.  Despite the wet start, the month will probably finish a bit BN, as we're 0.26" below the average and short of catching one of the isolated TS, we won't get it.

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29 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Pinnacle Mtn, Stowe. Thanks PF for the recommendation. Damn sticky and sweaty hike. aa588de5c8c78501e3517e170d319436.jpg

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

Nice!  Yeah that's gotta be a hot one today.  I'm going up to Montreal for a flight to Munich (Montreal is a great option for us here at 1.5hrs away and several hundred dollars cheaper thanks to the exchange rate) and there's no relief from the heat by any Cu clouds today.  Just hazy hot and humid in all directions.

Just the one lone cloud trying to fight the cap over Mansfield's ridgeline, haha.  

Also, just think, you waited till late September to visit and got the hottest weather of the entire year, lol.  

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

heh...totally missed your post.

:(

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

btw...is there a reason we don't have MWN data in the nowdata tab?

I don't know to be honest. It may have to do with the fact that it doesn't act like a normal coop/ASOS because of how the data gets recorded. The report officially to NCEI twice a day, so sometimes data like snowfall gets double counted until the morning report comes out.

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What did they do with the GFS to make it run so warm?  It's also been going bonkers with mixing.  Like I was looking at tomorrow and the GFS hints at mixing up to around 5000' for Waterbury, CT yielding a high in the mid-80's.  The NAM is mixing to around like 2000'+ and a high in the upper 70's lol

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

What did they do with the GFS to make it run so warm?  It's also been going bonkers with mixing.  Like I was looking at tomorrow and the GFS hints at mixing up to around 5000' for Waterbury, CT yielding a high in the mid-80's.  The NAM is mixing to around like 2000'+ and a high in the upper 70's lol

Tomorrow looks warm. 5kft isn't that high for mixing.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Tomorrow looks warm. 5kft isn't that high for mixing.

Just went back to the NAM and mixed to just below 5000' and got a high of 87 which I think is what I got on the GFS too.  There are some things I need to further explore one day.  I mean look at the difference here between the NAM and GFS:

This is MADDENING\

temps.thumb.jpg.d4475431d907d39e1e9c99b6ad7db8ce.jpg

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What did they do with the GFS to make it run so warm?  It's also been going bonkers with mixing.  Like I was looking at tomorrow and the GFS hints at mixing up to around 5000' for Waterbury, CT yielding a high in the mid-80's.  The NAM is mixing to around like 2000'+ and a high in the upper 70's lol

 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Tomorrow looks warm. 5kft isn't that high for mixing.

NAM appears to have swung and missed badly for today. MET for CON was 83 (currently 89), MAV was 90. And those were the 00z (MET) and 06z (MAV) bulletins.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

 

NAM appears to have swung and missed badly for today. MET for CON was 83 (currently 89), MAV was 90. And those were the 00z (MET) and 06z (MAV) bulletins.

I hope that isn't the case for PVD b/c I used the NAM bufkit for my forecast high there today in the wx challenge.  I got 81 and that's what they're at now :yikes:

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Just went back to the NAM and mixed to just below 5000' and got a high of 87 which I think is what I got on the GFS too.  There are some things I need to further explore one day.  I mean look at the difference here between the NAM and GFS:

This is MADDENING\

That's part of forecasting, identifying which is right (or more right anyway). For instance, is there a specific reason why mixing would be lower than today on Wednesday? If anything with the approach of the cold front, stronger winds may increase mixing from today.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I hope that isn't the case for PVD b/c I used the NAM bufkit for my forecast high there today in the wx challenge.  I got 81 and that's what they're at now :yikes:

I was going to sign up for that as an alum this season and forgot. But ocean influence can certainly mitigate that mixing. The MAV/MET for PVD was not as stark as some of the more inland sites though.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

NAM appears to have swung and missed badly for today. MET for CON was 83 (currently 89), MAV was 90. And those were the 00z (MET) and 06z (MAV) bulletins.

Yeah...the NAM generates some strange mixing issues with sun during the warm season sometimes. When it looks warm and the MET is way under the MAV I toss the MET further than my long island iced teas, off the side of the highway in Sherbrooke, in the late 90s.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I hope that isn't the case for PVD b/c I used the NAM bufkit for my forecast high there today in the wx challenge.  I got 81 and that's what they're at now :yikes:

I've noticed NAM MOS haven't been reliable in WxChallenge since second half of the previous season started. They're still at 81 so you might get lucky (I had 83).

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