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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, nzucker said:

Some 100F temperatures were recorded in that 1895 heat wave around NYC. I believe Central Park had an official high of 97F. Probably the most significant heat wave in September besides the 1953 heat wave when 100F was recorded early in the month and there were like 13 straight days above 90F. But 1895 may be more impressive because it was much later in the month and in a much colder climate. Hitting upper 90s on 9/1 is way different than hitting upper 90s on 9/25.

Farmington recorded 100/99 for Sept 22-23, 1895, though nobody else in Maine seemed quite that hot (limited site data from back then), just mid 90s, still impressive.  However, I think the Farmington co-op site at that time was in a place that got extra hot; they've recorded only 14 days 100+ in 125 summers, 7 in the 1890s, 5 in 1911 which includes NNE's greatest heat wave on record, then only 2 (June 1944 and August 1975) since then.  Nearly all of their mildest minima come from back then as well, along with some in the late 1940s, another time that makes me wonder about siting.

1953 shares with 1966 the distinction of 4 days 100+ at Central Park, most in any year, and only '53 hit triples in 3 different months.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Temps

What a COC day today.  82F.  Blue skies.  Sorta low humidity 

Sunday looks pretty hot

Yeah perfect summer Saturday.

Low of 42F this morning followed by a high of 82F for an even 40F diurnal range.

Just like yesterday, driving to work with the heat on in the morning, followed by AC in the car on the drive home.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, snowman21 said:

So just like every year?

Pretty much - yeah... 

In the forecast philosophy/essays of explanation they give the gist of it is that in the absence of a more coherent signal that is above or below normal, they tend to give a nod to persistence.

Persistence is above normal. It essentially has been for about 20 years all over the planet, associated with GW.  Whether that is 'climate change' or whatever .. notwithstanding..different discussion.  But, the 'base-line' state is has greater probability of above normal.

Having said that, I'm personally unsure if they consider this year as incoherently forced.  I will say ... in recent autumns, NCEP has put statements in their winter outlook (which admittedly, ..OND is not, but bear with me) that regions from the GL, upper OV into NE are susceptible to modulations of polar indexes that are inherently too stochastic to make reliable seasonal forecasts. 

Ha, as though any of it is ... But point being, I don't see why OND would be any different.  Those months begin to reel and feel EPO's and NAOs. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty much - yeah... 

In the forecast philosophy/essays of explanation they give the gist of it is that in the absence of a more coherent signal that is above or below normal, they tend to give a nod to persistence.

Persistence is above normal. It essentially has been for about 20 years all over the planet, associated with GW.  Whether that is 'climate change' or whatever .. notwithstanding..different discussion.  But, the 'base-line' state is has greater probability of above normal.

Having said that, I'm personally unsure if they consider this year as incoherently forced.  I will say ... in recent autumns, NCEP has put statements in their winter outlook (which admittedly, ..OND is not, but bear with me) that regions from the GL, upper OV into NE are susceptible to modulations of polar indexes that are inherently too stochastic to make reliable seasonal forecasts. 

Ha, as though any of it is ... But point being, I don't see why OND would be any different.  Those months begin to reel and feel EPO's and NAOs. 

I think it was after the 2010-2011 winter that the CPC started actually trying to incorporate more enso and some other tools. I remember prior to that winter they basically broadbrushed the entire country sans maybe the extreme northern plains...of course we know how that turned out...it was a really cold winter for just about everyone east of the Rockies. (Except Maine was near normal or even a little above...before tamarack corrects me) 

It makes sense that the winter would be harder to forecast rather than just going "global warming climo"....the variance of winter temps is so much higher than any underlying signal that it gets drowned out. It rarely turns what would have been a cold winter into a warm winter...more like "this winter was -3.5F departure instead of -4.2F in 1975" or "this winter was +2.2 instead of +1.5. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I won't be in Boston ...most likely not, no.   In fact, draw line from ...say middle Long Island Sound to BED and PSM ... anywhere SE of there is going to be modulated by Shelf Water contamination as the day progresses. 

NW of that line?   ...don't down play it.  NAM FRH grid in the 28 C range T1 typically translates to a 33 C 2-m temp in ideal scenarios.  Granted, post autumn Equinox is inherently less than an ideal heating scenario, purely for somewhat dimmed insolation ...Okay, but the sun is still high enough to goose the surface under right conditions, which tomorrow DEFINITELY will be.  NW of that ~ line the wind will probably be more more like 240 as opposed to veering 200 SE of as the S. coastal breeze boundary cruises to the Pike then tilts trhough Boston and the N. shore.... I don't see any reason not to take NAM number verbatim... Even the Euro's synoptic set up is identical to those numeric interpretations. 

32 C ..or 90 ... perhaps 91 is doable in my estimation.

But it's going to be dewy on either side ...

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah perfect summer Saturday.

Low of 42F this morning followed by a high of 82F for an even 40F diurnal range.

Just like yesterday, driving to work with the heat on in the morning, followed by AC in the car on the drive home.

82.3F here as well. It does look hot and muggy the next few days, but even being way above normal I don't think I'll suffer without the AC. The evenings cool off quickly and the 12hrs of 60s to maybe upper 50s for lows here will make nights tolerable. I'm soaking the last bit of this in rather than wasting AC energy on it.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

82.3F here as well. It does look hot and muggy the next few days, but even being way above normal I don't think I'll suffer without the AC. The evenings cool off quickly and the 12hrs of 60s to maybe upper 50s for lows here will make nights tolerable. I'm soaking the last bit of this in rather than wasting AC energy on it.

There is a definite different feel with the sun angle but its still hot, just not unbearable as a July day would be. When the sun goes down it's totally different than July.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

:lol:

Really hope I can survive this! 

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KLCI   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/23/2017  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 24| MON 25| TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29| SAT 30|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  61  86| 64  86| 63  87| 64  83| 64  73| 51  66| 42  61| 44 45 64
 TMP  67  76| 70  76| 68  75| 67  72| 65  62| 54  55| 47  52| 48      
 DPT  62  67| 65  68| 64  65| 64  66| 60  56| 47  44| 39  44| 41      
 CLD  CL  CL| CL  PC| CL  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  OV| OV      
 WND   2   6|  2   5|  2   5|  3   7|  5  11|  8   8|  3   6|  3      
 P12   0   1|  0   6|  4   7| 13  45| 57  41| 27  22| 19  27| 30999999
 P24       1|      7|     12|     58|     71|     32|     36|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  2   1|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      1|      3|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   4|  1   2|  0  24| 17   9|  1   1|  1   3|  4      
 T24        |  0    |  9    |  2    | 38    | 13    |  1    |  4      
 PZP   0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  2   2|  2   0|  1   1|  0   0|  0      
 PSN   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  1   0|  8      
 PRS   0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   1|  0   1|  1   1|  2   1|  2      
 TYP   R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R      
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |
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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

CT Blizz, Powderfreak, Hippievalley, or any of the other beer folk...

Ever try Hill Farmstead out of Vermont?   Ate dinner at Armsby Abbey in Worcester and they had a few of their beers on tap.  Really good stuff.  They had Trillium and Medusa among tons of others.  Their Trillium kegs had kicked so no luck there...

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

CT Blizz, Powderfreak, Hippievalley, or any of the other beer folk...

Ever try Hill Farmstead out of Vermont?   Ate dinner at Armsby Abbey in Worcester and they had a few of their beers on tap.  Really good stuff.  They had Trillium and Medusa among tons of others.  Their Trillium kegs had kicked so no luck there...

Yes. HF is great 

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scoob40

scoob40

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is a definite different feel with the sun angle but its still hot, just not unbearable as a July day would be. When the sun goes down it's totally different than July.

Spot on. Case in point walking around the Big E tonight actually felt a little cool when Smashmouth came out on stage and it's fair to say that no one will confuse the West Side with Shelbourne or Met Herb Land.

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