gravitylover Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 On 9/30/2017 at 0:05 PM, BxEngine said: Was awesome. Wish i came here when i was 22 lol I first went there when I was 27 I instantly fell in love with the drive through Daquiri shops with the huge frozen Margaritas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 What is this world coming to? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 8 hours ago, dmillz25 said: What is this world coming to? I hope not an end but sadly, it still makes you wonder....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Seems that only mid-Oct. has a chance for a few BN days. CFSv2 is back to a furnace into mid-Nov. Next 45-day period looks +4degs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Another non-fall, we've basically become a two season region with summer dominating for 8-9 months of the year. Unbelievably high departures coming up with several days of mid 80s likely, the rate of global warming is truly shocking. Easily think this month will be the hottest October on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Another non-fall, we've basically become a two season region with summer dominating for 8-9 months of the year. Unbelievably high departures coming up with several days of mid 80s likely, the rate of global warming is truly shocking. Easily think this month will be the hottest October on record. Dry ground adding another 3-5 degrees on temps-big bust here today with temps pushing 80 already. In the summer this would be a 100 degree day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 On 9/28/2017 at 7:42 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Based on my calculations I think Brownsville, TX or south of there could get a hurricane or tropical storm the next week to 10 days. On 9/28/2017 at 9:48 PM, Snow88 said: On 9/29/2017 at 0:55 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There is some truth to this. Rocket fuel down there. The western Caribbean is screaming let's break the low pressure record So Nate looks to be a bit more north but there it is a tropical storm in the gulf! The euro advertising the WAR (heat) I think that starts sliding east in the future runs! Mid October it starts to really cool off! Still an above average month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1954 had two warm waves of four days 80 degrees or higher in the first half of October...December and January were cold that year...snowfall was way below average in 54-55...I was in the first grade so I remember very little about that year...1959 had a warm fall with one day reaching 88 in early October...there was a white Christmas that year...2007 had plenty of warm fall days and the winter was horrible...it's blocking or bust this year but it won't guarantee heavy snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 I figured I would through my dry post in here. Out on the island it's almost par for the course that it's dry. But it's even getting exceptionally dry here in manhattan. Newly planted shurbs that aren't irrigated have kicked the bucket and we are starting to see even established plants starting to suffer. if we some how get shafted with Nate (the good moisture stays well north) then it's going to start getting serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 I understand that for the majority of the population reservoir levels would be important and how they define how dry it is but for many of us that live with forest as part of our daily lives it's more important that the overall moisture levels are higher than what they are now. I mentioned the other day how surprised I am at how high the reservoirs are this fall considering how little rain has fallen since the end of August but that's due to several factors. First off we had a reasonable snow year that ended late, an abundance of rain for the following 4-5 months and apparently water usage through the served areas is down over the last ten years. The land, on the other hand, is bone dry, as dry as it's been in a very long time. After how wet it had been and things rotted standing they are now just flopping over because they're brittle and can't handle a breeze, there are huge trees down everywhere and branches just falling out of the trees that aren't as healthy as they should be from last years extreme drought. The foliage is dull and falling off the trees already dry and half shriveled, creeks are barely flowing if at all, places in the woods that are almost always wet are parched and cracking and the amount of brush/forest fire fuel just waiting to burn is astounding. Sure we've had some very dry periods and the drought last year was more significant than this but the length of time that we've gone without even moistening the surface is scary and the forests are really showing it, in many places even more so than other dry times we've had in the last 20 years. Now hunting season has started and there are people traipsing through the woods, far off the regular trail networks, that are sometimes quite careless and it concerns me. I see more garbage in the woods this time of year than at others, I see smoldering fire pits that I never see when it's not hunting season and I see cigarette butts on the ground far into the woods where I never see them. These things are like waving a red flag to me so I'm beating the dry drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 Most of the 7 day forecasts for cities way north of the arctic have very cold temperatures as of Wednesday or so. That's roughly 5-6 days away. It's going to get much chillier. Now even the warm days are not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Most of the 7 day forecasts for cities way north of the arctic have very cold temperatures as of Wednesday or so. That's roughly 5-6 days away. It's going to get much chillier. Now even the warm days are not that bad. Meh feels like July today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 45 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Meh feels like July today It sure does. Climate change at its worst. I think climate change has a lot to do with this, 99% of the days are now either real above average or in some rarer cases extremely below average. The heat seems to be more extreme around the globe though. There's no in between (normal temps) anymore besides that 1% IMO. I think this upcoming winter may be extremely colder than average up until late February where mild weather takes over and melts most of the snow. I think it could end up being an above snow winter because we'll get a historic sized snowstorm for Central Park but it may be followed by rain. Early march may produce some lows cutting into the Appalachian mountains and giving us rain. April and March will end up below average because the cold won't really go away it will just modify! This weather warmer regime modication begins around February 25th 2018. Until than except cold and drier December and January but February will be wet and cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 Winter 2017-18 winter forecast for Central Park (NYC), A.K.A. (KNYC) November 2017 Rain: 2.55 inches Snow: 0.00 Temperature: +0.4 degrees December 2017 Rain: 0.49 Snow: 1.4 inches Temperature: -1.2 degrees January 2018 Rain: 0.28 inches Snow: 5.3 inches February 2018 Rain: 2.59 inches Snow: 41.78 inches Temperature: -1.1 degrees March 2018 Rain: 5.63 inches Snow: Trace Temperature: +1.3 degrees April 2018 Rain 1.72 inches Snow: Trace Temperature: -2.4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 41 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Winter 2017-18 winter forecast for Central Park (NYC), A.K.A. (KNYC) November 2017 Rain: 2.55 inches Snow: 0.00 Temperature: +0.4 degrees December 2017 Rain: 0.49 Snow: 1.4 inches Temperature: -1.2 degrees January 2018 Rain: 0.28 inches Snow: 5.3 inches February 2018 Rain: 2.59 inches Snow: 41.78 inches Temperature: -1.1 degrees March 2018 Rain: 5.63 inches Snow: Trace Temperature: +1.3 degrees April 2018 Rain 1.72 inches Snow: Trace Temperature: -2.4 degrees. That's gonna be an epic February then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Did you know that the average age for an all time warm monthly record is about 30 years, but for the coldest monthly record it is 120 years! The most recent coldest monthly record is 83 years ago---Feb. 1934. We probably will struggle just to get closer than 2 degrees or so of any of these 12 coldest monthly records, since this represents the bias we would have to overcome just to reach the original 30-year norms of 1900. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Wow. What a gut wrenching loss by the Yankees. One of the worst post season losses I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Wow. What a gut wrenching loss by the Yankees. One of the worst post season losses I've ever seen. No that would be 04 by you know who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 The Yankees more or less pulled a March 2001 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Yankee loss - check Nationals loss - check happy mets fans tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I think Nate is about to really surprise some people. RI tonight as he heads over the loop current. Could make a run at a major. We could even see some tropical storm gusts here with rapidly moving remnants. Just look back at what Ike did in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 17 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think Nate is about to really surprise some people. RI tonight as he heads over the loop current. Could make a run at a major. We could even see some tropical storm gusts here with rapidly moving remnants. Just look back at what Ike did in Ohio. Nate is a joke. No deaths and no real damage. The most minimal hurricane you can think of with this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nate is a joke. No deaths and no real damage. The most minimal hurricane you can think of with this storm! You know over 30 people died in costa rica and Nicaragua due to nate right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: You know over 30 people died in costa rica and Nicaragua due to nate right? I know but I was talking about the USA impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: You know over 30 people died in costa rica and Nicaragua due to nate right? If they aren't American deaths they aren't real deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 8 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nate is a joke. No deaths and no real damage. The most minimal hurricane you can think of with this storm! Wow what an idiotic statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 CFSv2 has no 5-day period that averages BN for the next 45 days. It estimates a +6 degree departure here over that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Expanding on my Summer Banter post of 8/20, #669-----we now are at: 441positive surplus/280days = +1.58degs. for the year to date. I subtracted 37 from surplus there, to correct for August, which was actually -1.2degs. So we need another 913-441 = 472 in the next 85 days, or an average of +5.6degs., to become warmest year ever. We could get as far as Nov. 20 at this rate---we'll see. If we do it, it will be with an incongruous BN summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Wow what an idiotic statement. No reason to attack me like that, you don't know me like that lol all jokes aside don't ever come at me like that again. Again no deaths reported with this storm in the states- obviously the tropical rains caused the deaths in Costa Rica and Honduras and their mudslides this had the writing on the wall as a weak tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: No reason to attack me like that, you don't know me like that lol all jokes aside don't ever come at me like that again. Again no deaths reported with this storm in the states- obviously the tropical rains caused the deaths in Costa Rica and Honduras and their mudslides this had the writing on the wall as a weak tropical system Pretty good flooding in Biloxi. Rescues. Casinos and surrounding streets flooded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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