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Fall 2017 Banter Thread


WeatherFeen2000
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Another non-fall, we've basically become a two season region with summer dominating for 8-9 months of the year.

Unbelievably high departures coming up with several days of mid 80s likely, the rate of global warming is truly shocking.

Easily think this month will be the hottest October on record. 

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Another non-fall, we've basically become a two season region with summer dominating for 8-9 months of the year.

Unbelievably high departures coming up with several days of mid 80s likely, the rate of global warming is truly shocking.

Easily think this month will be the hottest October on record. 

Dry ground adding another 3-5 degrees on temps-big bust here today with temps pushing 80 already.   In the summer this would be a 100 degree day

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On 9/28/2017 at 7:42 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Based on my calculations I think Brownsville, TX or south of there could get a hurricane or tropical storm the next week to 10 days.

 

On 9/28/2017 at 9:48 PM, Snow88 said:

:facepalm:

 

On 9/29/2017 at 0:55 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There is some truth to this. Rocket fuel down there. The western Caribbean is screaming let's break the low pressure record 

So Nate looks to be a bit more north but there it is a tropical storm in the gulf! The euro advertising the WAR (heat) I think that starts sliding east in the future runs! Mid October it starts to really cool off! Still an above average month!

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1954 had two warm waves of four days 80 degrees or higher in the first half of October...December and January were cold that year...snowfall was way below average in 54-55...I was in the first grade so I remember very little about that year...1959 had a warm fall with one day reaching 88 in early October...there was a white Christmas that year...2007 had plenty of warm fall days and the winter was horrible...it's blocking or bust this year but it won't guarantee heavy snows...

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I figured I would through my dry post in here. 

Out on the island it's almost par for the course that it's dry. But it's even getting exceptionally dry here in manhattan. Newly planted shurbs that aren't irrigated have kicked the bucket and we are starting to see even established plants starting to suffer.

if we some how get shafted with Nate (the good moisture stays well north) then it's going to start getting serious  

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I understand that for the majority of the population reservoir levels would be important and how they define how dry it is but for many of us that live with forest as part of our daily lives it's more important that the overall moisture levels are higher than what they are now. I mentioned the other day how surprised I am at how high the reservoirs are this fall considering how little rain has fallen since the end of August but that's due to several factors. First off we had a reasonable snow year that ended late, an abundance of rain for the following 4-5 months and apparently water usage through the served areas is down over the last ten years. The land, on the other hand, is bone dry, as dry as it's been in a very long time. After how wet it had been and things rotted standing they are now just flopping over because they're brittle and can't handle a breeze, there are huge trees down everywhere and branches just falling out of the trees that aren't as healthy as they should be from last years extreme drought. The foliage is dull and falling off the trees already dry and half shriveled, creeks are barely flowing if at all, places in the woods that are almost always wet are parched and cracking and the amount of brush/forest fire fuel just waiting to burn is astounding. 

Sure we've had some very dry periods and the drought last year was more significant than this but the length of time that we've gone without even moistening the surface is scary and the forests are really showing it, in many places even more so than other dry times we've had in the last 20 years. Now hunting season has started and there are people traipsing through the woods, far off the regular trail networks, that are sometimes quite careless and it concerns me. I see more garbage in the woods this time of year than at others, I see smoldering fire pits that I never see when it's not hunting season and I see cigarette butts on the ground far into the woods where I never see them. These things are like waving a red flag to me so I'm beating the dry drum. 

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45 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Meh feels like July today

It sure does. Climate change at its worst. I think climate change has a lot to do with this, 99% of the days are now either real above average or in some rarer cases extremely below average. The heat seems to be more extreme around the globe though. There's no in between (normal temps) anymore besides that 1% IMO. 

I think this upcoming winter may be extremely colder than average up until late February where mild weather takes over and melts most of the snow. I think it could end up being an above snow winter because we'll get a historic sized snowstorm for Central Park but it may be followed by rain. Early march may produce some lows cutting into the Appalachian mountains and giving us rain. April and March will end up below average because the cold won't really go away it will just modify! This weather warmer regime modication begins around February 25th 2018. Until than except cold and drier December and January but February will be wet and cold enough for snow.

 

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Winter 2017-18 winter forecast for 

Central Park (NYC), A.K.A. (KNYC)

 

November 2017 

 

Rain: 2.55 inches

Snow: 0.00

Temperature: +0.4 degrees

 

December 2017

 

Rain: 0.49

Snow: 1.4 inches

Temperature: -1.2 degrees

 

January 2018

Rain: 0.28 inches

Snow: 5.3 inches

 

February 2018 

 

Rain: 2.59 inches

Snow: 41.78 inches

Temperature: -1.1 degrees 

 

March 2018

Rain: 5.63 inches

Snow: Trace

Temperature: +1.3 degrees

 

April 2018

 

Rain 1.72 inches

Snow: Trace

Temperature: -2.4 degrees.

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41 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Winter 2017-18 winter forecast for 

Central Park (NYC), A.K.A. (KNYC)

 

November 2017 

 

Rain: 2.55 inches

Snow: 0.00

Temperature: +0.4 degrees

 

December 2017

 

Rain: 0.49

Snow: 1.4 inches

Temperature: -1.2 degrees

 

January 2018

Rain: 0.28 inches

Snow: 5.3 inches

 

February 2018 

 

Rain: 2.59 inches

Snow: 41.78 inches

Temperature: -1.1 degrees 

 

March 2018

Rain: 5.63 inches

Snow: Trace

Temperature: +1.3 degrees

 

April 2018

 

Rain 1.72 inches

Snow: Trace

Temperature: -2.4 degrees.

That's gonna be an epic February then

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Did you know that the average age for an all time warm monthly record is about 30 years, but for the coldest monthly record it is 120 years!   The most recent coldest monthly record is 83 years ago---Feb. 1934.    We probably will struggle just to get closer than 2 degrees or so of any of these 12 coldest monthly records, since this represents the bias we would have to overcome just to reach the original 30-year norms of 1900.

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17 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think Nate is about to really surprise some people. RI tonight as he heads over the loop current. Could make a run at a major. We could even see some tropical storm gusts here with rapidly moving remnants. Just look back at what Ike did in Ohio. 

Nate is a joke. No deaths and no real damage. The most minimal hurricane you can think of with this storm!

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Expanding on my Summer Banter post of 8/20, #669-----we now are at:    441positive surplus/280days = +1.58degs. for the year to date.  I subtracted 37 from surplus there, to correct for August, which was actually -1.2degs.

So we need another 913-441 = 472 in the next 85 days, or an average of +5.6degs., to become warmest year ever.  We could get as far as Nov. 20 at this rate---we'll see.  If we do it, it will be with an incongruous BN summer!

 

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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow what an idiotic statement. 

No reason to attack me like that, you don't know me like that lol all jokes aside don't ever come at me like that again. Again no deaths reported with this storm in the states- obviously the tropical rains caused the deaths in Costa Rica and Honduras and their mudslides this had the writing on the wall as a weak tropical system

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25 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

No reason to attack me like that, you don't know me like that lol all jokes aside don't ever come at me like that again. Again no deaths reported with this storm in the states- obviously the tropical rains caused the deaths in Costa Rica and Honduras and their mudslides this had the writing on the wall as a weak tropical system

Pretty good flooding in Biloxi. Rescues. Casinos and surrounding streets flooded out. 

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