Fall 2017 Banter Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

The storm that created my weather addiction. I was only 3 but I do remember it. South wantagh had tremendous tree damage. A large 70' Norway Maple in front of my house lost its entire top. It took down 3 telephone poles with it. As far as impact at my particular house it was the worst storm ever. We would have Flooded had it occurred at high tide as my elevation is 7'. We had water in the street during sandy but it never made it over the curb

[WeatherFeen2000]

Based on my calculations I think Brownsville, TX or south of there could get a hurricane or tropical storm the next week to 10 days.

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Surprised no one is talking about how dry it's been. Literly drying out in wantagh...

Grass has long since turned brown here. Foliage just starting to turn brown and fall....ugly stuff.  No real rain since 9/6/17.   (got .20 from Jose but that only settled the dust)

[NJwx85]

Still luscious and green out here. Hasn't rained much in about a month but we were so above normal all Summer that the recent dryness has helped. First time I can remember needing to cut the grass all Summer long.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Based on my calculations I think Brownsville, TX or south of there could get a hurricane or tropical storm the next week to 10 days.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

There is some truth to this. Rocket fuel down there. The western Caribbean is screaming let's break the low pressure record 

[IrishRob17]

9 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Still luscious and green out here. Hasn't rained much in about a month but we were so above normal all Summer that the recent dryness has helped. First time I can remember needing to cut the grass all Summer long.

So it’s luscious but you haven’t had to cut the grass?  I assume that’s a typo. My grass is drying out and for the first time this season I could go longer than a week without mowing but now with the leaf drop I’ll have to mulch anyway. 

[CIK62]

ESP really shows no BN 500mb heights outside of the immediate 3 days.  The rest of the next 45 days are normal or above.  Next 45-day period looks to be +4degs.

Meanwhile, the CFS has the current 5-day period as BN but no other for the next 45 days.  Of course no 10-day period is BN at all.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

So it’s luscious but you haven’t had to cut the grass?  I assume that’s a typo. My grass is drying out and for the first time this season I could go longer than a week without mowing but now with the leaf drop I’ll have to mulch anyway. 

Hoping tomorow's storm threat overperforms-models have it mainly east, but who knows, it's our last hope for awhile.

[gravitylover]

It may look luscious but the soil moisture is way down and most plant life is actually dry to the point of being crunchy now. The forest floor has turned to hardpan over the last two weeks, in many areas the leaves are down or very thin and the undergrowth is completely down already pretty much everywhere north of 287. 

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It may look luscious but the soil moisture is way down and most plant life is actually dry to the point of being crunchy now. The forest floor has turned to hardpan over the last two weeks, in many areas the leaves are down or very thin and the undergrowth is completely down already pretty much everywhere north of 287. 

Yea, there’s nothing luscious in this neck of the woods. 

[gravitylover]

^^And that wind yesterday dried things out even more. I did a quick round trip to central VT yesterday and in many areas the trees were nearly stripped of their leaves and there were huge branches down all over the place. I also noticed that crops that hadn't been harvested went from green and tasty looking over the weekend to brown and probably only good for animal feed rather than human food. In most places the leaves haven't come down but the early color has turned brown and in general things aren't nearly as vivid as they had started out. This foliage season had such promise but as it dried out that went away  

[NJwx85]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

So it’s luscious but you haven’t had to cut the grass?  I assume that’s a typo. My grass is drying out and for the first time this season I could go longer than a week without mowing but now with the leaf drop I’ll have to mulch anyway. 

No it's not a typo. Despite the dryer conditions the last month or so the grass is still a vibrant shade of green. It's probably because we were so above normal in July and August that soil moisture content remained relatively high.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml

[gravitylover]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No it's not a typo. Despite the dryer conditions the last month or so the grass is still a vibrant shade of green. It's probably because we were so above normal in July and August that soil moisture content remained relatively high.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml

They can calculate whatever they want. I'm telling you that it's not true. I'm out in the woods a few times a week and doing ~1k miles a week, more like 2k this week, driving around the northeast and it's dry. Some areas are still showing green but they're few and far between.

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No it's not a typo. Despite the dryer conditions the last month or so the grass is still a vibrant shade of green. It's probably because we were so above normal in July and August that soil moisture content remained relatively high.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml

Could also be the type of turf you have. KBG for example likes its consistent water. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

They can calculate whatever they want. I'm telling you that it's not true. I'm out in the woods a few times a week and doing ~1k miles a week, more like 2k this week, driving around the northeast and it's dry. Some areas are still showing green but they're few and far between.

With all due respect, we live 50 miles apart, and this Summer was definitely wetter West of the Hudson River.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Could also be the type of turf you have. KBG for example likes its consistent water. 

Yeah I've got Zoysia here. It's not the prettiest or the softest but it's more rugged. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

With all due respect, we live 50 miles apart, and this Summer was definitely wetter West of the Hudson River.

Dry conditions expanded west into NY and PA  in the latest US drought monitor update yesterday.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Northeast

Another week of mostly dry weather, accompanied by late-season warmth, led to the introduction of abnormal dryness (D0) in several areas. In addition, moderate drought (D1) persisted in eastern Maine, while dryness was expanded to include the remainder of coastal New England. By September 24, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that topsoil moisture was 77% very short to short in Maine, along with 46% in Vermont and 40% in West Virginia. Through September 26, month-to-date rainfall totaled just 1.04 inches (33% of normal) in Elkins, West Virginia, and 0.77 inch (24%) in Massena, New York.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dry conditions expanded west into NY and PA  in the latest US drought monitor update yesterday.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Northeast

Another week of mostly dry weather, accompanied by late-season warmth, led to the introduction of abnormal dryness (D0) in several areas. In addition, moderate drought (D1) persisted in eastern Maine, while dryness was expanded to include the remainder of coastal New England. By September 24, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that topsoil moisture was 77% very short to short in Maine, along with 46% in Vermont and 40% in West Virginia. Through September 26, month-to-date rainfall totaled just 1.04 inches (33% of normal) in Elkins, West Virginia, and 0.77 inch (24%) in Massena, New York.

Unless I am reading this wrong, I don't see any drought over Northern NJ. Again, most of the Summer was wet out this way. The dry spell has only lasted a few weeks so far.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Unless I am reading this wrong, I don't see any drought over Northern NJ. Again, most of the Summer was wet out this way. The dry spell has only lasted a few weeks so far.

The last time we had a decent wet pattern here in September was way back in 2011. Pretty impressive dry streak the last several Septembers. The lack of major summer heat in places like Long Island prevented the dry conditions from getting worse than they were this summer. But NNJ did much better in the rainfall dept than Long Island this summer.

[Juliancolton]

I mowed for the first time in a month yesterday (mostly to mulch leaves and even out the few patches that are still growing a bit) and it was intolerably dusty. We're parched. Some of the most reliably vibrant trees in my hood went straight from green to sickly brown this past week - never seen anything like it.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a decent wet pattern here in September was way back in 2011. Pretty impressive dry streak the last several Septembers. The lack of major summer heat in places like Long Island prevented the dry conditions from getting worse than they were this summer. But NNJ did much better in the rainfall dept than Long Island this summer.

Been an amazing streak of little to no tropical activity-usually we get some remnant of a storm and get some good rains...

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a decent wet pattern here in September was way back in 2011. Pretty impressive dry streak the last several Septembers. The lack of major summer heat in places like Long Island prevented the dry conditions from getting worse than they were this summer. But NNJ did much better in the rainfall dept than Long Island this summer.

The strong ridging in place since late August has kept most of the tropical moisture to our South and East.

[IrishRob17]

Here’s my rainfall this summer:

June: -.49”

July: -.64”

Aug: +.77”

Sept: -1.83” (all but .10” of this fell in the first week)

[WeatherFeen2000]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

ESP really shows no BN 500mb heights outside of the immediate 3 days.  The rest of the next 45 days are normal or above.  Next 45-day period looks to be +4degs.

Meanwhile, the CFS has the current 5-day period as BN but no other for the next 45 days.  Of course no 10-day period is BN at all.

I wouldn't trust these models past 3 days! 

[Stormlover74]

57 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I wouldn't trust these models past 3 days! 

Dude it's going to be warm

[bluewave]

Jose provided some great swells for the surfers in Lido Beach.

 

 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah I've got Zoysia here. It's not the prettiest or the softest but it's more rugged. 

You kidding? Zoysia is the best type of grass. Only portions of my yard are Zoysia. Sure it takes more time to green up in the spring and you need to thatch it good, but man when its green it is THICK

[doncat]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Here’s my rainfall this summer:

June: -.49”

July: -.64”

Aug: +.77”

Sept: -1.83” (all but .10” of this fell in the first week)

Those are your totals for each month? Not departures.

[WeatherFeen2000]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dude it's going to be warm

I know that but past ten days come on you never know!