Fall 2017 Banter Thread

[EasternLI]

Didn't feel it 

[NEG NAO]

 I fell off the potty.............

[MJO812]

I thought I was seeing things when my tree started to shake.

[NEG NAO]

55 minutes ago, Rjay said:

@CIK62

These models have been playing catch - up for a while the actual result for December will show the central and east as a wide chunk of real estate below to well below normal as the blocking takes hold in an almost perfect position for a few weeks at least - this cold outbreak could rival 2013 - 2010 and 1989....

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

These models have been playing catch - up for a while the actual result for December will show the central and east as a wide chunk of real estate below to well below normal as the blocking takes hold in an almost perfect position for a few weeks at least - this cold outbreak could rival 2013 - 2010 and 1989....

The November 1st run of the Euro monthly looks like it was the first get the right idea about December.

 

 

 

 

[Paragon]

58 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

4.4 quake just hit NE of Delaware, Dover 

 

edit: upgraded to 5.1

I wonder if this was related to the quake we had in 2011?  Same fault line?

[Cfa]

I felt it, I thought I was off balance initially but I noticed clothes hangers swaying back and forth.

Swaying not nearly as noticeable as the 2011 quake, that was enough to wake me up out of my sleep.

[Paragon]

14 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I felt it, I thought I was off balance initially but I noticed clothes hangers swaying back and forth.

Swaying not nearly as noticeable as the 2011 quake, that was enough to wake me up out of my sleep.

What was the exact time of it? I didn't feel it here and the 2011 one was easy to feel and also heard sloshing around.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What was the exact time of it? I didn't feel it here and the 2011 one was easy to feel and also heard sloshing around.

456pm

[CIK62]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

@CIK62

Thanks for the summary graphics.   That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right.   LOL!      The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2.   Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

[Rjay]

29 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Thanks for the summary graphics.   That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right.   LOL!      The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2.   Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

I'm going -2 to -4 for the month.  The cold after the first bunch warm days will wipe out that positive quickly.  It looks to be way below normal weeks 2 and 3 but you have a point so we'll see.   

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

These models have been playing catch - up for a while the actual result for December will show the central and east as a wide chunk of real estate below to well below normal as the blocking takes hold in an almost perfect position for a few weeks at least - this cold outbreak could rival 2013 - 2010 and 1989....

Well yea. I posted this in banter for a reason.  After the first week it looks to get very cold.

[PB GFI]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Thanks for the summary graphics.   That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right.   LOL!      The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2.   Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

 

The 1st 7 days of December aren't plus 6.

[doncat]

Met fall here finished as 4th warmest in 40 years, even with a cool November.

[snowman19]

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.”  Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

[forkyfork]

it snows no matter what these days. do you remember last winter? 

[swamplover56]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.”  Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

NYC needs about 5.5" before January 1st I'll take a $50 bet with you on the over. Put your money where your mouth is

[Rjay]

Goodbye met fall

[BxEngine]

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.”  Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

Couching predictions with "its looking more and more likely" rather than an "absolute" doesnt make you any less incorrect. 

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

 

Couching predictions with "its looking more and more likely" rather than an "absolute" doesnt make you any less incorrect. 

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

[SnowLover22]

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

Oh please like you don’t do the same thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[stu]

I just put the snow tires on our two family cars.  Now begins the 4 months of dry weather.

[ChineseFood4Snow]

Wrong thread.

 

[MacChump]

On 11/20/2017 at 10:37 AM, Juliancolton said:

If you move beyond the local FM station playing Mariah Carey on repeat for two months, there's a wealth of pretty good Christmas music to be found with a little digging. The problem is that it takes some effort to find stuff that isn't just the 100,000th cover of O Holy Night so sometimes it's easier to just turn on the Warren Zevon or ELO and pretend like you're Jewish.

was looking for a warren zevon reference i made a while back and this post turned up...have to bump just for a zevon/elo rec...amazing, there can't be very many of us lol

[Juliancolton]

7 hours ago, MacChump said:

was looking for a warren zevon reference i made a while back and this post turned up...have to bump just for a zevon/elo rec...amazing, there can't be very many of us lol

Hah, that's awesome. Zevon is such an underrated artist. Even as my music taste evolves over the years his work still holds up for me. Excitable Boy is timeless.