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Fall 2017 Banter Thread


WeatherFeen2000
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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Denver-DIA hit 81° today which is 34° above the normal high of 47°. This difference between the actual high & the normal high was the second largest ever recorded for Denver. The only larger difference occurred on Dec 5, 1939 when Denver was 35° above normal. #cowx

Remember when Dallas hit 95 earlier in November and they hadn't had a a temp of 90 or above in the entire month before that (and they had a heat wave, let alone just one 90 degree day in November!)  How much was that temp above their normal high?  And LA's 92 record on Thanksgiving?

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Remember when Dallas hit 95 earlier in November and they hadn't had a a temp of 90 or above in the entire month before that (and they had a heat wave, let alone just one 90 degree day in November!)  How much was that temp above their normal high?  And LA's 92 record on Thanksgiving?

 

 

The ridging out west has been ridiculous in recent years. There is a few new papers out on the topic. But most of them are behind a paywall.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD026575/full

 

http://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1498/Scientists-link-California-droughts-and-floods-to-distinctive-atmospheric-waves

The crippling wintertime droughts that struck California from 2013 to 2015, as well as this year's unusually wet California winter, appear to be associated with the same phenomenon: a distinctive wave pattern that emerges in the upper atmosphere and circles the globe. 

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found in a recent study that the persistent high-pressure ridge off the west coast of North America that blocked storms from coming onshore during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was associated with the wave pattern, which they call wavenumber-5. Follow-up work showed that wavenumber-5 emerged again this winter but with its high- and low-pressure features in a different position, allowing drenching storms from the Pacific to make landfall. 

"This wave pattern is a global dynamic system that sometimes makes droughts or floods in California more likely to occur," said NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng, lead author of the California paper. "As we learn more, this may eventually open a new window to long-term predictability." 

The finding is part of an emerging body of research into the wave pattern that holds the promise of better understanding seasonal weather patterns in California and elsewhere. Another new paper, led by NCAR scientist Grant Branstator, examines the powerful wave pattern in more depth, analyzing the physical processes that help lead to its formation as well as its seasonal variations and how it varies in strength and location.

The California study was published in the Journal of Climate while the comprehensive study into the wave patterns is appearing in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. Both papers were funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor, as well as by the Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA.

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridging out west has been ridiculous in recent years. There is a few new papers out on the topic. But most of them are behind a paywall.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD026575/full

 

http://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1498/Scientists-link-California-droughts-and-floods-to-distinctive-atmospheric-waves

The crippling wintertime droughts that struck California from 2013 to 2015, as well as this year's unusually wet California winter, appear to be associated with the same phenomenon: a distinctive wave pattern that emerges in the upper atmosphere and circles the globe. 

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found in a recent study that the persistent high-pressure ridge off the west coast of North America that blocked storms from coming onshore during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was associated with the wave pattern, which they call wavenumber-5. Follow-up work showed that wavenumber-5 emerged again this winter but with its high- and low-pressure features in a different position, allowing drenching storms from the Pacific to make landfall. 

"This wave pattern is a global dynamic system that sometimes makes droughts or floods in California more likely to occur," said NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng, lead author of the California paper. "As we learn more, this may eventually open a new window to long-term predictability." 

The finding is part of an emerging body of research into the wave pattern that holds the promise of better understanding seasonal weather patterns in California and elsewhere. Another new paper, led by NCAR scientist Grant Branstator, examines the powerful wave pattern in more depth, analyzing the physical processes that help lead to its formation as well as its seasonal variations and how it varies in strength and location.

The California study was published in the Journal of Climate while the comprehensive study into the wave patterns is appearing in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. Both papers were funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor, as well as by the Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA.

Thanks,  I wonder if this will lead to a new index being used to account for this?

 

 

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9 hours ago, Paragon said:

But you don't seem to like hot summers, and I love those, because I'm a big numbers guy and I enjoy watching the temps reach for 100, the same way I enjoy watching a 20 inch snowstorm lol.  I love temperature extremes (both hot and cold) and precipitation extremes (rain, snow and even ice) and wind extremes.

I was going to start a topic on this earlier, but I didn't know if anyone had the right answer for this- but where in the country is the best place to be to experience 20 inch snowstorms in the winter and 100 degree heat in the summer?

 

 

 

 

Probably just away from the coast in New England. Lower elevation for heat but still access to big storms.

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for some years the coldest temperature of the winter or the month came during the AO's lowest point of the season...some years had a snowstorm around the date...a few years didn't have either and are the exceptions...last year the ao went positive two days after the lowest point and a big thaw took over...

 

season.......ao min.....date.....
1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month...
1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter...
1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2...
1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31...
1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January...
1954-55......-3.064.....1/4/55........cold continues...
1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows.....
1956-57......-4.473.....2/21/57......2.6" snow 3/1...
1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...
1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues...

1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow...
1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12...
1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6...
1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season...
1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard...
1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold...
1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...storm 7" on 1/30...
1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25...
1967-68......-3.490.....2/7/68........8 degrees 2/11...Cold and dry continues...
1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10....

1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29...
1970-71......-2.821.....2/6/71........12 degrees max 2/2...
1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17...
1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month...
1974-75......-1.695.....12/18/74...some minor cold in a mild month...one of the few times the weather was benign at the ao minimum...
1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23...
1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15...
1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...

1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February....

 

1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter...
1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5...
1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy...
1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...
1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9...
1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter...
1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter...
1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10...
1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after...
1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7...

1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record...
1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......24 degrees 3/12...benign after that...
1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...benign after that...
1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...
1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27....
1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month....
1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard.
1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96...11 degrees New Years Day....
1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter...
1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month...

1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22..
2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month...
2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01...Coldest period of the winter followed but benign...
2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...
2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec.
2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...
2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...
2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter...
2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter...
2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees...

2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month...
2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14..

2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12...4.3" of snow 1/21...Biggest of the season...

2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold...

2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...5 degrees 1/22...11" of snow 1/21...21 max 1/28...

2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th...

2015-16......-4.898.....01/16/16...first measurable snow 1/17...27" blizzard 1/23...

2016-17......-2.228.....02/14/17...9.4" of snow 2/9...biggest of the season...

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20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i'm not a "look at the pretty light snow" kind of person. ku's or torch

I'm not a cold and dry kind of guy- that's a killer on heating bills with no joy.  Give me snow and teens/20s, or give me 60-70 degrees with sunshine in the winter!  Actually, if it's not snowing, today is perfect!

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

I'm not a cold and dry kind of guy- that's a killer on heating bills with no joy.  Give me snow and teens/20s, or give me 60-70 degrees with sunshine in the winter!  Actually, if it's not snowing, today is perfect!

 

 

 

 

That 65 degree Xmas Eve a few years ago was wonderful. Mountain biking in shorts and t-shirts that night was something I'll never forget. There was a whole bunch of riders out hootin' and hollerin' and just having a big old time like it was mid summer. I wouldn't mind another one like that :) 

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41 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Hey @IrishRob17, it's almost time to start our annual initiative educating people about the earliest sunsets being in early Dec.

I am always shocked when I see the sunset is before 4:30 and it's still November!  It happens every year and yet I forget it every year until it actually happens lol.

 

Today's sunset was 4:28 PM here.

 

Late fall/winter sunsets and sunrises seem to be the most colorful too.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Hey @IrishRob17, it's almost time to start our annual initiative educating people about the earliest sunsets being in early Dec.

LOL, I was just calculating in my head yesterday how many days until the sunset starts getting later again. I like to think that we’ve educated some folks over the years but the job isn’t done. 

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7 hours ago, Paragon said:

I am always shocked when I see the sunset is before 4:30 and it's still November!  It happens every year and yet I forget it every year until it actually happens lol.

 

Today's sunset was 4:28 PM here.

 

Late fall/winter sunsets and sunrises seem to be the most colorful too.

 

 

Yeah, yesterday I saw the sunrise and the clouds made much of the eastern sky orange/yellow!

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

CFS looks like  horror show right now for Jan.  We have to hope this is wrong as usual.  Based on 850mb. T:

Days 1-10 mostly BN

Days 11-27 exclusively AN

Days 28-31 BN

BN D, J, and F is just too much to ask for!  For now I'll take December evolving as modeled and no one mountain biking in shorts at Christmas.

 

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5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

CFS looks like  horror show right now for Jan.  We have to hope this is wrong as usual.  Based on 850mb. T:

Days 1-10 mostly BN

Days 11-27 exclusively AN

Days 28-31 BN

The CFS is a complete joke and should be disbanded immediately, it bit the bullet on November and the model, not the weather will burn in flames next month.

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