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Fall 2017 Banter Thread


WeatherFeen2000
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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s pretty funny but you just know what “analogs” are going to be used in the fall based on whether we have an El Niño or a La Niña. El Niño: 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 La Niña: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14. Without fail, those analogs come out, everytime

93-94, 77-78

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7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

and imagine the sunrise times in western areas of the time zone...9am?   LOL.   Nothing is going to change.   Hard to have one state change and the other stay etc etc.  DST to EST and back to DST is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Agreed.  Been to Ohio now and then, and in late June at 9:40 PM I'd say the sky looks like it does here at 8:50 PM.  Haven't been there in early January, but it must be tough getting out of bed there before 8.

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thumb_a6e7d7c7eac58c587383e698.jpg
toNY ➜ MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC
42 minutes ago

It's still very early in the game the cold is not building as well this fall but it is spreading faster. We could be in for a surorise winter. Also I believe that this winter will be just above normal when it comes to snow for the northeast area. NYC I'd say 42 inches, Philadelphia 31 D.C. 21

I gotta admit the stratospheric forcing is making the sun a bit less warmer. To sum things up we're right on schedule for winter. We just need upstate areas to get snow before us than we'll have a solid snowy winter. All you feens want snow in this website so have fun. And if everything works out well those snow estimates are on the low side!

 

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/profile/779-tony
 

Check your city snow totals?!

www.nerdwallet.com/blog/snowfall-totals-city/

 
Pam you getting some snow huh? 
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With a final result of +7.2degs. for Oct., I estimate that Nov. only needs to be +3.5degs. for us to have the warmest Fall ever in NYC.

In addition, during the last 50-day period, there were just 5 BN days.

It must be 26 of the last 31 months that have been above normal now.  No BN month is predicted anytime soon to boot.  CFS gets us close in April/May before zooming again.  Next BN month is going to be an accident, a mere atmospheric after-thought and miscue.

btw:  If those 5 BN days had occurred as a cluster, it would not even had made it to -3degs.

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4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

With a final result of +7.2degs. for Oct., I estimate that Nov. only needs to be +3.5degs. for us to have the warmest Fall ever in NYC.

In addition, during the last 50-day period, there were just 5 BN days.

Really feels never ending.  When I comment on how extreme this stretch has been to people at my office they seem to have no idea.  Funny how quickly people acclimate. 

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3 hours ago, Snowshack said:

Really feels never ending.  When I comment on how extreme this stretch has been to people at my office they seem to have no idea.  Funny how quickly people acclimate. 

I remember Halloweens as a kid where most of the trees were bare-this year some remain green, and most are not bare.  We blew away 2007's record warm Oct by more than a degree in some cases...

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35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember Halloweens as a kid where most of the trees were bare-this year some remain green, and most are not bare.  We blew away 2007's record warm Oct by more than a degree in some cases...

Usually by thanksgiving trees are bare in the city. It's warm but fall is here

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The seasonal forecast rankings are in. The one common denominator is that the CFS and Euro are better at forecasting the PNA and EPO than the AO and NAO. But the CFS model is actually better than the Euro with its seasonal AO and NAO forecasts. Remember, the ECMWF seasonal is a different forecast system than the EPS which gets extended to weeklies twice a week.

 

index_skill_winter_lead1.png.f155e7056f95b7f6ebe8b7fb18bc0e95.png

 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember Halloweens as a kid where most of the trees were bare-this year some remain green, and most are not bare.  We blew away 2007's record warm Oct by more than a degree in some cases...

We had a pretty good leaf strip with the storm over the weekend here on the south shore. As in green leaves were ripped off. We are at least 2 weeks behind schedule with color change. 

 I was sick and have been MIA so what’s up everyone!

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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Usually by thanksgiving trees are bare in the city. It's warm but fall is here

I remember when leaves were still burned in piles on the city streets. Great aroma. Than street cleaning with alternate side of the street parking took effect. Well, at least leaf burning never seemed as dangerous as Christmas tree burning, common also 60+ years ago.

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5 hours ago, Snowshack said:

Really feels never ending.  When I comment on how extreme this stretch has been to people at my office they seem to have no idea.  Funny how quickly people acclimate. 

It's never ending because it has become the norm so people think that's how it's supposed to be. 

People don't really notice how extreme it is unless it's centered around winter or summer. People definitely noticed Dec 2015 and they'll definitely notice the next record warm July-August. 

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On 10/31/2017 at 6:24 AM, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, Spearfish has the most rapid temperature change ever recorded.  In just two minutes it went from -4° to 45°.   Loma, Montana has an incredible record as well, where it went from -54° to 49° in 24 hours.  That's a 103° change!  Can't forget Browning, Montana where it dropped from 44° to -56° in a day.  Montana also holds the record for coldest temperature in the lower 48, which is -70° at Rogers Pass.

Wow, those are the places where you can get all possible weather within an hour, any time of the year.  Could you imagine that kind of temperature change?  Must've been accompanied with some amazing winds too.

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56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's never ending because it has become the norm so people think that's how it's supposed to be. 

People don't really notice how extreme it is unless it's centered around winter or summer. People definitely noticed Dec 2015 and they'll definitely notice the next record warm July-August. 

Well I'm glad because my boiler still isn't fixed lol.

 

With all this sunshine and humidity it feels like summer out there!  I have my heat going lol.

 

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20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s pretty funny but you just know what “analogs” are going to be used in the fall based on whether we have an El Niño or a La Niña. El Niño: 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 La Niña: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14. Without fail, those analogs come out, everytime

ENSO gets thrown out way too much as an influencer of our local climate- there are other factors that should be used.

For example, I am going to use the fact that we are having the warmest fall on record and that alone is enough to convince me we're going to have a mild winter.

 

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On 10/31/2017 at 9:01 AM, bluewave said:

That area is the high pressure record holder for the the US set on 12-24-83. I just remember how cold it was here. 

 

122415.thumb.png.61fd0222f8bbfb9ea2b0151b1bbf95b8.png

 

 

I read somewhere that our last truly anomalous arctic outbreak (2 SD) was in 1994.  The three I remember the most were that one and Christmas Day 1980 and January 1985 (inauguration day.)

 

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3 hours ago, Dakota said:

Snowing beautifully now at 5:15 PM MDT / 23:15 GMT.  Moderate snow  / visibility about 1/2 mile.  Temp has plummeted to 26 F as some heavier squalls move through.

Ground whitened for the first time this season.

Wind is light out of the east and east / southeast.

As I said yesterday; since everything to My east is downhill; an east wind here should produce a nice orographic lift (upslope flow) and wring out the moisture; while last night's west winds (as most spots to My west are higher) were subject to adiabatic compressional warming & drying.

"The laws of physics do not cease to exist due to a change in venue", to paraphrase my cousin Vinny.

It is nice to see a minor accumulation for the first time this winter; as Larry Hirsch would say when the Devils would score their first goal of the game, "breaking the seal".

Fred Shero and Larry were terrific together on WMCA.

I feel like a little kitten who has found Her mittens; as My mood has swung back to the "Good Side" of the ledger...

Biggest storms there are usually very early or late (by NY standards) I think your in for a very cold dry winter there 

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3 hours ago, Dakota said:

Snowing beautifully now at 5:15 PM MDT / 23:15 GMT.  Moderate snow  / visibility about 1/2 mile.  Temp has plummeted to 26 F as some heavier squalls move through.

Ground whitened for the first time this season.

Wind is light out of the east and east / southeast.

As I said yesterday; since everything to My east is downhill; an east wind here should produce a nice orographic lift (upslope flow) and wring out the moisture; while last night's west winds (as most spots to My west are higher) were subject to adiabatic compressional warming & drying.

"The laws of physics do not cease to exist due to a change in venue", to paraphrase my cousin Vinny.

It is nice to see a minor accumulation for the first time this winter; as Larry Hirsch would say when the Devils would score their first goal of the game, "breaking the seal".

Fred Shero and Larry were terrific together on WMCA.

I feel like a little kitten who has found Her mittens; as My mood has swung back to the "Good Side" of the ledger...

Remember that devil's  playoff game back in 1988 (I think), that had the replacement referees? I was at that game, I'll never forget it.

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3 minutes ago, Dakota said:

"Go eat another donut you.............."

Schoenfeld went nuts.

The funny thing is; Koharski was the best referee I've ever seen...even better than Kerry Fraser or Andy van Hellemond.

I miss old time hockey...I had been a hockey fanatic since 10 years old..Starting last season, I don't really watch it anymore... I still follow it but get bored trying to watch it.

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13 hours ago, Dakota said:

 

Remember that the Entire Universe is predicated on precision mathematics; and it is from this concept….inexplicably & inextricably linked to hyper-dimensional physics….a tetrahedron inscribed in a sphere….upon which all things stand.

 

That's why my world is so fkd up... Math and I have never played well together  :wacko:

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