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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut.

Definitely...to see if westward trend continues or not.  And am really getting concerned regarding Fla. evacuations if this thing goes north up the spine.  Where would people go?  To the panhandle or Mobile area?  As well as upslope rains as moisture hits the mountains I certainly hope the 18z run does not come to fruition.

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thess

thess

Posted
Posted
I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time.



Meanwhile, my friend in WPB is talking about evacuating his family to ... my state, NC. This is a tough one to plan for.
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LovintheWhiteFluff

LovintheWhiteFluff

Posted
Posted

I was chatting with someone in Miami about the need to evacuate if the need arises. I sent him the miami-dade zone map http://gisweb.miamidade.gov/communityservices/?ShowWhat=OEM for him to put in his address. He told me it came back green (with no explanation on what green meant) and he thought he was safe. I don't know why they would use green for disaster planning. Green means okay. Anyway, the zones are as follows for anyone in Miami-Dade county. I wouldn't have known without looking it up and he thought he was cool no matter what. 

Quote

The description of Storm Surge Planning Zones is as follows:

Zone A is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 1 and higher storms.
Zone B is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 2 and higher storms.
Zone C is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 3 and higher storms.
Zone D is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 4 and higher storms.
Zone E is at greatest risk for storm surge from Category 5 storms.

The Storm Surge Planning Zones are used to identify risk of storm surge and is based on all directions of storms. As a storm is approaching, Miami-Dade County Emergency Management will identify which areas should evacuate for that particular storm. Evacuation Zones will be all of or a portion of the Storm Surge Planning Zones. Residents should monitor the media and listen for which areas are being told to evacuate.

 

 

 

 

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salbers

salbers

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That is a great site. Are they thinking of adding ECMWF 500 mb height anomalies to the line up?

I have designed and implemented a similar type of site (though not online at present). I wonder if this one can eventually do a few things:

1) Produce animations, by having a number of frames selector.

2) Select model initial times (this could allow construction of dprog/dt's either manually or automatically)

3) Plot a montage showing multiple models side by side in a matrix

Excellent site even as is though, especially with the Euro data being available.

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade"  don't take the intensity verbatim.  Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now.  

Given that we are already at ~940mb, or near it at least, <910 seems more than possible if land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba isn't overly deleterious to the system... especially by the time it's been over those "jet fuel" waters in and near the Bahamas for 24+ hours. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

In case people are wondering, a turn up the spine of Florida as modeled on the 18z GFS would not be without precedent, though obviously not easy to get it to play out just like that.  Hurricane King in 1950 offers an example, and some other hurricanes have almost traveled the length of Florida.  

track.gif.494abf6a037fe2e6c17851d6cc799700.gif

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Off-topic, but even if Jose develops the way the GFS is trying to depict, wouldn't upwelling from Irma limit its potential?

The interesting thing is that the ridge to the East of Irma could theoretically induce a Westerly flow, however a lot of things are working against Jose, upwelling included.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
Off-topic, but even if Jose develops the way the GFS is trying to depict, wouldn't upwelling from Irma limit its potential?

 

 

Not right now. The 26° isotherm this time of year is at its deepest under the western Main Development Region, Antilles, Caribbean and Bahamas. Also, Irma is a steadily moving hurricane. It would need to stall in the same location for several days like in the Bahamas for example.

 

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Wow said:

Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/

Disagree, that puts the major population centers on the right side and puts the wind direction onshore all the way up the coast as well.  I think damage wise it would be much less troublesome off the coast even if that means stronger.  Of course if it's stronger heading up the EC that isn't a good thing for NC or any other destination.

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

you guys need to look at all aspects, not just what the models are saying.

If the disturbance in the gulf forms into a TD  (which it currently looks like it's close to doing) , the moisture flowing out would strengthen the trough along the east coast more than expected...and could cause a further north trend of Irma.    You can already see on satellite and water vapor, moisture is flowing out towards that trough...and all the way up east coast.  

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Nope. Models are better at hurricane track forecasts than humans. 

It's been proven time and time again... I liken it to all the folks in here, and I'm guilty of it as well, who state what's "going to happen" in a particular model run because of how things look synoptically during a particular forecast-hour - then just end up being dead wrong.

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted

I believe Windspeed may have commented already about this among others but the timing of a turn north is still  just outside the models skill range.  The trend has been a turn north forever but it keeps getting displaced somewhat farther in time and farther west.   I don't expect a drastic change at 00z when the new data is ingested but I do expect a change especially within the 5 day.  We may very well see a run back east at 120-144.  The current status is showing the parts are beginning to move after being fairly stagnant the last 48 hours. I would like to see some consistency in the 120 hour range of a northward pivot point before I'll start to buy where, if and when. 

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