Major Hurricane Irma

[Big Jims Videos]

Fact about Miami-Dade county: According to a 2016 census report,^[1]the county had a population of 2,712,945,^[2]making it the most populous county in Florida and the seventh-most populous county in the United States.^[3]

in 1990, around Andrew time, the population was roughly 800,000 less, to put it in perspective.  

In homestead alone the population more than doubled since Andrew.  

 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

Cmon man, 917 over Lake Okee, no way we don't want that.

Yea and my fam lives in FLL and Vero respectively. Wife's fam lives in Sebastian. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Cmon man, 917 over Lake Okee, no way we don't want that.

GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade"  don't take the intensity verbatim.  Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now.  

[Wow]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Worse still, Irma will reemerge off the coast of Fla as a major and head for the Carolinas...

That is what concerns me.  The upper low is still over the deep south so still possible for it to bend back west.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Geez, this run is an absolute disaster for FL. Traverses most of the state on it's track. 

[Hoosier]

Not anything like the coast would get but this would be a bumpy run even for places like Orlando.  

[NavarreDon]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

This is not a good run.

Being born in Hollywood, raised in Ft Lauderdale till 16, having family, friends, & other interests down there. I can only look at that image with stunned silence. Gotta keep telling myself it's a week out because even with pressure bias that's devastation from Homestead on up!

[TPAwx]

Yeah let's hope so.  Even a 950 going in that track is bad news.  I literally have no idea where to evac when watching this run.  Belize?

edit - responding to Eskimo Joe pressure post

[Ralph Wiggum]

[packbacker]

Hurricane David like track...except it won't get shredded before s-FL. 

[NortheastPAWx]

That'd make the Labor Day cane look like a passing breeze...

[Stebo]

The one thing I have noticed on all of the models as it approaches Florida, pressure values ignored, the pressure tendency is for it to be strengthening at landfall like Harvey did going into Texas. Right now there is a consensus if you have no major land interaction with Cuba or last minute ERC, that you will have a very strong storm strengthening upon landfall.

[Wow]

Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Geez, this run is an absolute disaster for FL. Traverses most of the state on it's track. 

It never leaves land. At 168 it's in SE Georgia...

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/

Eh, lack of emergence worse for more of Florida though.

[Wow]

Still heading NNW toward the S Apps

[jbenedet]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade"  don't take the intensity verbatim.  Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now.  

Honestly you can hedge what the GFS is outputing by following the euro for the same hrs as it essentially has the same track into South Fla. Euro is 930's into southern Fla so we're looking a cat 5 either way at this point. 

[Buddy1987]

Guys are there any known biases on the 18z gfs as we know there to be sometimes when tracking winter storms or no? Whereas we sometimes discard it?

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, Wow said:

Still heading NNW toward the S Apps

With the lift around the southern and eastern escarpment that will be terrible. 

[TPAwx]

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/

Is there anything that could create changes in the steering, the trough and ridge, that could suggest a further west track than this?

[hlcater]

3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The one thing I have noticed on all of the models as it approaches Florida, pressure values ignored, the pressure tendency is for it to be strengthening at landfall like Harvey did going into Texas. Right now there is a consensus if you have no major land interaction with Cuba or last minute ERC, that you will have a very strong storm strengthening upon landfall.

Makes perfect sense given the upper level pattern and the warm SSTs associated with the gulf stream. I'd hedge if it ends up in that spot with half decent core structure, it'll strengthen(possibly significantly). Environment there is near perfect, only hindrance being some minor southwesterly shear, which would be hindered some once the storm turns northward.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys are there any known biases on the 18z gfs as we know there to be sometimes when tracking winter storms or no? Whereas we sometimes discard it?

The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago

[Random Chaos]

Looks like an ERC on IR. Looking forward to what recon finds:

 

[beanskip]

Something to keep in mind -- the Florida peninsula is about 150 miles wide -- that's much narrower than the margin of error of this storm as it makes the turn. This could easily pass just east (more likely, it would appear) or west of the peninsula and be a beast as it hits Ga/SC/NC or the panhandle. 

[lilj4425]

11 minutes ago, Wow said:

Still heading NNW toward the S Apps

I'm assuming there would be massive flooding there. I live in Greenville, SC. Could be catastrophic here too due to lift increasing qpf amounts.

[JasonOH]

Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago

I talked to someone involved in the prceipitation scheme of the model and he said that Issue was solved. They are much closer to normal now.

[Jim Marusak]

2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Being born in Hollywood, raised in Ft Lauderdale till 16, having family, friends, & other interests down there. I can only look at that image with stunned silence. Gotta keep telling myself it's a week out because even with pressure bias that's devastation from Homestead on up!

I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time.

[ncskywarn]

Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Still heading NNW toward the S Apps

Big differences in euro/gfs UL pattern emerge after Irma passes southern Fla. definitely low confidence in track beyond that point. The GEFS mean and EPS mean clearly have a turn towards the north/NNE after LF, but the mean LF position is further west, so it remains largely over land. If the GFS and Euro are correct with its pass over/near Miami I expect she will come back over open water.

[Windspeed]

I mean it's kind of ridiculous to feel like an unprecedented event just occurred and it's merely the last 12 hrs of global model simulations. But I've definitely had my fill; the two main globals can go ahead and start resolving different track solutions and we can put these away for all time weenie runs. Thank goodness Irma is still a good six days away. Ready for a flip soon.