gymengineer Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Andrew also hit in a different ERA for south Florida. The population in places like Homestead Florida City and Leisure City was minuscule to now. Also development of high rises and more or less only started along the coast from Palm Beach to Miami in 1988-1990. A slightly larger eye wall today and a track 10-20 miles north I couldn't imagine the damage Exactly. Wilma showed us that widespread Cat-1 and Cat-2 winds can cause more than $20 billion damage across S Florida. The new S Florida density really hasn't been tested by a Floyd-sized cat 4 direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Andrew also hit in a different ERA for south Florida. The population in places like Homestead Florida City and Leisure City was minuscule to now. Also development of high rises and more or less only started along the coast from Palm Beach to Miami in 1988-1990. A slightly larger eye wall today and a track 10-20 miles north I couldn't imagine the damage A larger storm with Andrew's pressure won't be a Cat 5 (but will still cause a ton of damage.) Andrew was reanalyzed as a Cat 5 after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it still looks like 12Z EPS is slightly west of the 12Z OP (and for that matter the 00Z EPS?) with the track up the west coast of FL or the spine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but it still looks like 12Z EPS is slightly west of the 12Z OP (and for that matter the 00Z EPS?) with the track up the west coast of FL or the spine? Correct it goes around the western side and hits Tampa then crosses the state and ends up near Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Absolute beauty! The islands are now in sight. Also still booking pretty much due west. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Correct it goes around the western side and hits Tampa then crosses the state and ends up near Savannah Yup, figured as much. I don't think NHC will do "much" with the track at 5 PM until we see the the next set of 00 Z runs w/ more data ... Any Hispaniola and/or then Cuba interaction down the road will be the biggest wildcard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It was already mentioned that the 12Z UKMET was south of the ECMWF/GFS blend. Here is a chart that shows just how far south it is. At D7 it is east of Florida after making the sharp right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I forgot who mentioned it yesterday, but you can definitely still see the effects of the ridge pushing down on the northern side of the cyclone. It's giving Irma a more elongated appearance and is continuing it on a W or slightly south of due west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 18z NAM is faster with the trough. well see what the GFS does. *prepares for anti-NAMer's* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said: How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest! It's second best to the Euro so far with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Irma now a Category 4 Hurricane: 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 ...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 54.4W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 First time with two consecutive Cat 4 canes in the Atlantic since 2005 (Dennis and Emily). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS has South Florida dealing with TS conditions by early Saturday, doesn't stop until about early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 There wouldn't be much left of Irma if it followed the UK track. Just saying. That depiction of a powerful cyclone at hour 168 after that track is complete fiction. Its shredded remains would likely continue on into the gulf because it would be too shallow to be pulled north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Irma looks like she might be taking off again. Convection really exploding around eye. She is entering some very warm waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Steady improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Thinking more like Hazel just shift it further north. It's got the hard right turn and bend back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: First time with two consecutive Cat 4 canes in the Atlantic since 2005 (Dennis and Emily). if irma hits the us as a cat 4 it would be the first time in 102 years that 2 cat 4 have hit the us in the same year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said: How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest! Live UKMET updates on IRMA here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Casualbrain said: Live UKMET updates on IRMA here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA Maybe i'm seeing things, but looking at this site, Irma seems to be North of UKMET's path currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Maybe i'm seeing things, but looking at this site, Irma seems to be North of UKMET's path currently. Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. Charley had a tiny surge for a cat 4 due to small size and very late intensification, so the surge threat wasn't worst case for Tampa. Should Irma take a track up the W. coast of FL it would likely have far more powerful for surge than Charley could have. Much larger storm and already very intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 System is moving w now so that forecast wouldn't verify just based on that. Would need to still be moving with some southerly component. 2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Averaging the Euro/UKMET tracks would have the center passing over Cuba, at least the northern part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily. I would wager the UKMET, especially, is wrong. The southern movement component of Irma has ceased. Might come back, but for the meantime, it's gone. A possible adjustment north might be reasonable at 0z. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, nycwinter said: if irma hits the us as a cat 4 it would be the first time in 102 years that 2 cat 4 have hit the us in the same year... Actually, I tweeted about this a few days ago. It would be the first time in recorded history going back to 1851. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 If the southern motion has indeed ended for good, possible we could see a continuation of a northern trend in the next couple of runs. 0z especially important with latest data ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. Even a cat 1 or 2 on a certain trajectory would be a problem. Downtown has been developing aggressively and there is a lot of property and people near water's edge. I'm sheltering in place if the track holds to the east, and will have to evac if it shifts west. In general it would be a nightmare given the population of Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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