Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Global models do not have the resolution to capture processes on this kind of scale, thus they will underestimate their effects essentially all of the time. I am well aware. I was simply stating the fact that literally verbatim if the core is 30 or so miles off the coast it SHOULD be uninterrupted. The individual who mentioned wishcasting obviously misspoke and is downplaying the overall threat. Back to weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: That intensity is not going to verify. Size may be a different story. 880s might not (probably wont) verify, but when you get to 920 or so, what difference does it make???? Both major models show an intense, large hurricane impacting south Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 880s might not (probably wont) verify, but when you get to 920 or so, what difference does it make???? Both major models show an intense, large hurricane impacting south Florida. Right, Andrew was 922 at it's peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, csnavywx said: A lot of extra data will be assimilated into tonight's 00Z runs, so we're probably about to see. Yeah G-IV is out there now flying around Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The 12z EPS mean matches the OP almost identically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12z EPS large cluster following OP pretty closely through hr144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 dropsonde found 944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 880s might not (probably wont) verify, but when you get to 920 or so, what difference does it make???? Both major models show an intense, large hurricane impacting south Florida. It's kind of a silly argument, but it makes a huge difference if we are talking about 140mph vs. 165mph or god forbid 190mph. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, EasternLI said: 12z EPS large cluster following OP pretty closely through hr144. It takes nearly the same track, just missing FL and then LF near the GA/SC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Forgive me if I am misunderstanding, I am just trying to gain some clarity in order to increase my knowledge of how these systems work -- even after years 12 years of intently following along, I still get lost sometimes. Are the models all just disagreeing on the strength and location of the trough that turns it polewards? Thank you in advance for your replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Morris said: dropsonde found 944 Already at Harvey levels, and only gonna get stronger. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It takes nearly the same track, just missing FL and then LF near the GA/SC area. I'm looking at spaghetti tracks, that's where the largest cluster goes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Forgive me if I am misunderstanding, I am just trying to gain some clarity in order to increase my knowledge of how these systems work -- even after years 12 years of intently following along, I still get lost sometimes. Are the models all just disagreeing on the strength and location of the trough that turns it polewards? Thank you in advance for your replies. Most of the reliable global models today are agreeing that a turn north will happen, but disagree on where that happens at exactly, as well as where a final landfall will be. It's important to note that there will likely be impacts to Florida, regardless of how close the system gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, rockchalk83 said: Most of the reliable global models today are agreeing that a turn north will happen, but disagree on where that happens at exactly, as well as where a final landfall will be. It's important to note that there will likely be impacts to Florida, regardless of how close the system gets. Thank you for this. But, are they disagreeing because they are all analyzing the trough/ridges differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, WishingForWarmWeather said: Thank you for this. But, are they disagreeing because they are all analyzing the trough/ridges differently? Yes. The system(s) in question still have to be sampled properly, which is the reason for the extra balloon launches at NWS offices in the midwest. This data will be put into the 00z models, which should begin to help minimize the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Morris said: dropsonde found 944 Also, this and last fix indicate a Westward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: Yes. The system(s) in question still have to be sampled properly, which is the reason for the extra balloon launches at NWS offices in the midwest. This data will be put into the 00z models, which should begin to help minimize the spread. Thank you. That is what I figured and wanted to make sure I wasn't misunderstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hurricane Irma recon flight (September 3rd) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Right, Andrew was 922 at it's peak Andrew also hit in a different ERA for south Florida. The population in places like Homestead Florida City and Leisure City was minuscule to now. Also development of high rises and more or less only started along the coast from Palm Beach to Miami in 1988-1990. A slightly larger eye wall today and a track 10-20 miles north I couldn't imagine the damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The simulated mid level flow out of the south by both the ECMWF and GFS isn't exactly strong when Irma begins the northerly turn and northward motion. Keep in mind this is still modeled 120+ hours out and may change drastically. But there are a few concerns if similar solutions play out. Interaction with the coastline would not be a fast event. The core will be over the same areas for 6 hours or more. I have a hard time imagining Irma would remain intense if it rode the coastline, but it would be devestating to a lot of populated areas just the same. If it remained just off the coast, looking at the modeled upper environment, divergence should remain excellent. Shear does begin to be a factor near Georgia. But looking at the 250 map, it's still marginal. Irma may be so large by that point the greater threat would be surge than wind. However, it could still make a second landfall near major hurricane intensity. Also, any shift east would just decimate the Bahamas. Even considering they are used to strong hurricanes. This could be among their worst. Anyway, just continued observations which could all still be fantasy with another big model shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 ECMWF simulated satellite now up for grabs for free at weather.us! WV:https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sat-wv-bright-temperature-63mu/20170910-1800z.html IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170910-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Probably already mentioned/covered somewhere in this thread but I am trying to play catch-up. The GEPS mean is showing Irma tracking to the central Gulf of Mex then into New Orleans next week. At least it appears a cluster is doing so. Am I reading this correctly or is that an entirely different disturbance? Tia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: ECMWF simulated satellite now up for grabs for free at weather.us! WV:https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sat-wv-bright-temperature-63mu/20170910-1800z.html IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170910-1800z.html That is a great site. Are they thinking of adding ECMWF 500 mb height anomalies to the line up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: That is a great site. Are they thinking of adding ECMWF 500 mb height anomalies to the line up? Thanks! So far we don't have anomalies, but we do have 500mb data such as wind speed, height, and vorticity: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/geopotential-height-500hpa/20170907-1200z.html use menus to the left of the image to toggle parameters. Will add anomalies to the list of things to add in the future though, thanks for the suggestion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Kind of unreal that GFS and Euro show similar outcomes with a major hurricane impacting Miami. Likely pressures that low won't verify but any kind of Cat 3+ hurricane is going to be very bad in that area. Waters are so warm but curious if shear and land interaction will mitigate Irma from really taking off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: Thanks! So far we don't have anomalies, but we do have 500mb data such as wind speed, height, and vorticity: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/geopotential-height-500hpa/20170907-1200z.html use menus to the left of the image to toggle parameters. Will add anomalies to the list of things to add in the future though, thanks for the suggestion! Keep up the good work. It's great to see a new site offering detailed ECMWF model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: ECMWF simulated satellite now up for grabs for free at weather.us! WV:https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sat-wv-bright-temperature-63mu/20170910-1800z.html IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170910-1800z.html You can really see Irma interacting with the ULL trough as it enters the right entrance region of the jet streak. It makes for a great outflow channel. However, it's a double edged sword because wind shear sometimes encroaches too close to the core before it begins it's transition to extratropical. By the way, and assuming you are the operator, I really like the products available and the fact that it's using the HD model outputs. One suggestion...can you add the forecast hour to the plots? That would really help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: Keep up the good work. It's great to see a new site offering detailed ECMWF model data. Thanks! As I said, we have all the high res stuff for free, so no need for WMO-essential maps any more spread the word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On the 12z EPS, I think it's worth noting, members that take the track trough about the halfway point between PR and 20N, generally speaking, are the ones with high impact in south florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, bdgwx said: You can really see Irma interacting with the ULL trough as it enters the right entrance region of the jet streak. It makes for a great outflow channel. However, it's a double edged sword because wind shear sometimes encroaches too close to the core. By the way, and assuming you are the operator, I really like the products available and the fact that it's using the HD model outputs. One suggestion...can you add forecast hour to the plots? That would really help! Thanks! I don't actually run the site myself, that's up to our IT folks, but I'll pass along the suggestion to them. Glad you're finding it useful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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