forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12Z ECMWF with a glancing blow to PR. Still, a little wobble could put N parts of the island in some bad conditions https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/674-w-213-n/base-reflectivity/20170907-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, rogue said: I wouldn't expect any clarity on a 0Z run 7 days before the event. They are launching balloons at 18z so models should have a better handle. See NHC's post for clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro looks to remain n of Cuba.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro appears North of 0z at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 euro looks a bit north of 00z thru 96, not quite raking cuba yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 West of the gfs at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 N of Hispaniola. Great news for them, not great news for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: euro looks a bit north of 00z thru 96, not quite raking cuba yet About 30-40 miles north of 0z at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, SN_Lover said: 943mb I see the confusion, you clicked the next frame which showed a ~20mb drop. Probably in response to a completion of a ERC. that will be a incredible drop IF it happens. Yes that's what happened, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: About 30-40 miles north of 0z at 96 hrs. makes all the difference here. Onshore/offshore. Fine line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: 10 minutes ago, rogue said: I wouldn't expect any clarity on a 0Z run 7 days before the event. If it hits S fl, more like 5 ish days by the time 00Z models get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The Euro looks very close to the GFS through day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 ughhh.. Euro and GFS have the same position at 120hr Lets see if it turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: makes all the difference here. Onshore/offshore. Fine line! About 10-20 miles north of Cuba at 114 hrs and making slow right turn at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro starts turning North hr 129. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The agreement between the GFS and Euro through Day 5 is fairly remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: ughhh.. Euro and GFS have the same position at 120hr Lets see if it turns. Wow...didn't expect that TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro is more similar to the CMC with the East coast troff. Still can't tell what it will do at 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 gfs nearly has jose make landfall on cape hatteras with a close approach to the mid atlantic and northeast...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: About 10-20 miles north of Cuba at 114 hrs. way different scenario than 0Z which was ~10mi onshore in Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 This Euro run still has the northeastern trough hanging around a bit more than GFS. Not a huge difference though considering we are talking 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 At 120 the 12Z Euro is just north of Cuba and hair north of the NHC forecast. The GFS and Euro are very close, but despite that I think D5 forecast confidence is average right now partly because this about the time turns and other interactions can be expected, but also because the UKMET was considerable south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro looks to be just a tick East of the GFS at hr 135, should clobber Miami, however at hr 144 it actually turns NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Euro looks to be just a tick East of the GFS at hr 135, should clobber Miami. Miami does escape the eastern eye wall though on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Larger Andrew from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Turning north at 132 near 80W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Not looking good SoFlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, bdgwx said: At 120 the 12Z Euro is just north of Cuba and hair north of the NHC forecast. The GFS and Euro are very close, but despite that I think D5 forecast confidence average right now partly because this about the time turns can be expected, but also because the UKMET was considerable south. Not sure if it was mention but the Ukie is still super far south on the 12z run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Gott imagine some disruption to Irma as she passes that close to Hispaniola and her terrain. Downsloping would be a big issue I imagine. Anyone have any similar type tracks from past 'canes that grazed HS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 At hr 150 it actually looks like the Western eyewall just scrapes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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