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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

"Compromise" between the two is going to result in the worst case scenario. 

You want it to follow the 12z Euro path in order to have greater odds of keeping the storm in tact. If this goes over PR or South it will probably get shredded. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

You want it to follow the 12z Euro path in order to have greater odds of keeping the storm in tact. If this goes over PR or South it will probably get shredded. 

Also, don't forget Cuba. Needs to get far away or downsloping will kill it. 

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Most notable thing with this run is the way the Euro handles the US pattern.  It digs the deep trough, but then breaks off the base into a cutoff low and lifts out the rest of the trough, allowing a strong Bermuda ridge to build westward into the mid-Atlantic states... certainly no escape out to sea in this scenario.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Most notable thing with this run is the way the Euro handles the US pattern.  It digs the deep trough, but then breaks off the base into a cutoff low and lifts out the rest of the trough, allowing a strong Bermuda ridge to build westward into the mid-Atlantic... would be bad for US.

That look at 500 was what really leapt out at me.

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11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Most notable thing with this run is the way the Euro handles the US pattern.  It digs the deep trough, but then breaks off the base into a cutoff low and lifts out the rest of the trough, allowing a strong Bermuda ridge to build westward into the mid-Atlantic states... certainly no escape out to sea in this scenario.

If a cutoff ULL sets up over the deep south then it's not getting into the GOM.  Either swings a hard right up into FL or if it comes up further north by then, it'll drill well into the SE if the HP is strong enough.

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