forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, eyewall said: Cuba would disrupt the system pretty effectively and it would have to be a wait and see after that to see if it could re-organize. Wait the GFS's idea of a 931mb storm emerging off Cuba isn't correct? lol completely agree. Going to have a limited window over FL straights, but in very good conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Another ERC is definately in progress. From almost 2 hours ago, but the concentric eyewalls are showing up nicely on microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The third eye dropsonde found the pressure at 947mb, but with the wind at 34kts, it's likely lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Cuba would disrupt the system pretty effectively and it would have to be a wait and see after that to see if it could re-organize. Absolutely, and of course, a weakened Irma will certainly be steered by lower level currents...which may end up ejecting her even further westward into the GOM....but still way too early to know the exact synoptic nuances ATT of her surrounding environment at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, forecasterjack said: Wait the GFS's idea of a 931mb storm emerging off Cuba isn't correct? lol completely agree. Going to have a limited window over FL straights, but in very good conditions. It has to be complete nonsense. Proof you can't believe GFS intensity. No way ot runs across Cuba like that and is a 931. More like a badly damaged tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Way too much op pbp overnight on a d7 potential LF. ens show the various solutions, with the means trending more towards a later north turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Mdecoy said: It has to be complete nonsense. Proof you can't believe GFS intensity. No way ot runs across Cuba like that and is a 931. More like a badly damaged tropical storm. 100% agreed, though Ike back in 08 ran pretty much the length of Cuba and emerged intact enough to cause trouble. Still definitely not a 931! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I think if Irma takes the 6Z GFS track over Cuba like that it will essentially be destroyed, we will be tracking a tropical storm on the other end and it will be a big yawn. 9 minutes ago, eyewall said: Cuba would disrupt the system pretty effectively and it would have to be a wait and see after that to see if it could re-organize. It really depends on how much interaction with Cuba there is and where the hurricane emerges after. The Euro raises the pressure to 950 over Cuba but is back near 930 a few days later just east of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 So, it looks to me, like the Pacific wave break is in progress today? I haven't seen that mentioned in a while. I feel like we need that to run it's course in order to have a clearer picture on modeling. So maybe by tomorrow we can start eliminating a bit of uncertainty? I'll be interested in model trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It really depends on how much interaction with Cuba there is and where the hurricane emerges after. The Euro raises the pressure to 950 over Cuba but is back near 930 a few days later just east of Florida. Other than land interaction, it's in nearly an ideal environment for strengthening. zero dry air, hardly any shear, dominant ULAC. Don't think the euro's drop down to 930 post Cuba is too unreasonable given the environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: It has to be complete nonsense. Proof you can't believe GFS intensity. No way ot runs across Cuba like that and is a 931. More like a badly damaged tropical storm. Something happened to the GFS post upgrade. @Climatologist49 6h Replying to @pauliniguez @phaneritic @PaxPhotography The issue is more with the intensity and wind field. GFS has has several runs this season of sub-870 mb storms. View conversation · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Usually the better intact a storm is when hitting cuba like that, the worse shape its in when it reemerges. Especially if its a large size...and it just doesnt get its act back together. Ike was like that i believe..was supposed to get to cat 4 or 5 again over the Gulf and couldnt do it.Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: So, it looks to me, like the Pacific wave break is in progress today? I haven't seen that mentioned in a while. I feel like we need that to run it's course in order to have a clearer picture on modeling. So maybe by tomorrow we can start eliminating a bit of uncertainty? I'll be interested in model trends today. Himawari WV shows the wavebreak process already well underway. Sanvu is ET, GOA low developed, W US high developed, E US low now developing https://weather.us/satellite/australia-americas/satellite-water-vapor-goes-old/20170904-0900z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just wanted to put in a quick plug for this site: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/799-w-396-n/precipitable-water-in/20170911-1800z.html you can get all the full res ECMWF stuff for free! That link shows PWAT forecasts by the ECMWF which highlights some of the upper level features that will mess with Irma's track. You can check out all the other parameters via the menus to the left of the image. You can also create custom domains. Click the image to zoom in or click near the edge to pan. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: Other than land interaction, it's in nearly an ideal environment for strengthening. zero dry air, hardly any shear, dominant ULAC. Don't think the euro's drop down to 930 post Cuba is too unreasonable given the environment. The Euro just skims the North Coast rather than the longer duration Ike passage in 2008. Still too far out to know the exact amount of land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The Euro just skims the North Coast rather than the longer duration Ike passage in 2008. Still too far out to know the exact amount of land interaction. Yeah look at that, suuuuuper close. Wonder if differences in friction between land/sea will cause any fluctuations in track if the eye is half onshore and half off a la ECMWF: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-221-n/windspeed-barbs/20170909-2100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: Yeah look at that, suuuuuper close. Wonder if differences in friction between land/sea will cause any fluctuations in track if the eye is half onshore and half off a la ECMWF: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-221-n/windspeed-barbs/20170909-2100z.html The Euro has a 20 mb rise over the North Coast followed by a 30 mb fall just east of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 NHC calls for Cat 4 by tomorrow afternoon...I think she attains that within the next 12 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 What are the chances this thing keeps it's western track . Till the FT Myers area then hooks right over Florida and back into the Atlantic and rides the east coast . Weird storm weird track .... maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: The Euro has a 20 mb rise over the North Coast followed by a 30 mb fall just east of Florida. yep indeed, I found 23 rise and 24 fall 930: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/764-w-221-n/sea-level-pressure/20170908-2100z.html up to 953: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-221-n/sea-level-pressure/20170909-1500z.html and right back down to 929: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/787-w-261-n/sea-level-pressure/20170911-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Sportybx said: What are the chances this thing keeps it's western track . Till the FT Myers area then hooks right over Florida and back into the Atlantic and rides the east coast . Weird storm weird track .... maybe I REALLY hate to say it, but Donna was almost a carbon copy track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It is tough to find a silver lining for Florida on that track other then it does look to be a rather fast mover as opposed to a stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Have never been more hopeful for the DR to shred one before in my life. But looking like wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just looked up the Donna track . Interesting that it happened almost the same time frame taking the same track .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Just looked up the Donna track . Interesting that it happened almost the same time frame taking the same track .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Moving just north of due west now... Wobble or trend??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Have never been more hopeful for the DR to shred one before in my life. But looking like wishful thinking. Nope need it to avoid DR. Got alot of family in Puerto Plata. That would be a disaster there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Mdecoy said: Well if this does verify, you called it, didn't you say less than 5% this hits north of Florida? Was Chuck that said that Mdecoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The eye is just about cleared out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 942.9mb on latest recon pass extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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