Major Hurricane Irma

[John1122]

That's a clean sweep of S/W jogs from the models this evening. Will it keep going? If it runs over much more of Cuba it may not recover to the extent shown. I really hope it stays out of the gulf.

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, ncskywarn said:

LMAO LF where the GFS was 24 hours ago.

It's because of the system in the NE/ridge in canada both models are saying different things about what the outcome is.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

just have to wait to see how strong that ridge is over the next few days. 

[BlunderStorm]

3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

LMAO LF where the GFS was 24 hours ago.

Yep I even remember mentioning North Myrtle Beach earlier. I question whether this follows near the coast or heads west like the GFS. (Continuation) West.

[Windspeed]

Hi - I'm a first time poster but have lurked here for a while and enjoy learning from what folks post. I'm a geologist and one of my field sites is in the Turks and Caicos. We've been waiting for a hurricane to roll through for a long time to track changes on a low-lying island in the region and I'll probably head down there soon as it seems Irma will hit the region pretty hard. I'm wondering if the major models make any predictions of storm surge that I could access beforehand, or if there is another way for me to ascertain this information? I just need a loose estimate for the region in the coming days. 

 

Ike and Donna were both Category 4 and hit the Turks and Caicos hard. Typical surge was 9-12 feet in places. The carbonate and coral plateau and shape of the cays and inlets can help depending on angle of approach.

 

I'd recommend visiting NOAA's site for their SLOSH model. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/slosh.php

 

As for the global forecast, tropical and intensity models, they are purely atmospheric pressure and precip based and do not simulate surge. However, if Irma is a large Cat 3 or 4 hurricane by the time it would impact the Turks and Caicos, you can probably expect something similar to Ike and Donna if it makes landfall.

 

[ncskywarn]

3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Yep I even remember mentioning North Myrtle Beach earlier. I question whether this follows near the coast or heads west like the GFS.

Heading NW at 240

Edit: Maybe NNW ends up at the Ohio-Pennsylvania border at 240 

[nycsnow]

This prob isn't final outcome gotta wait for better sampiling etc 

[jojo762]

After watching today's OP/ensemble runs unfold, I hope that anyone from southern Florida up to OBX has their hurricane evacuation/safety plans ready. 

[Ridingtime]

I think it is getting safer to say an OTS solution is now much less likely than a major impact somewhere on the East US coast. And if so, this hurricane season may end up being the most memorable since 2005

[Shawn]

I didn't read through everything, but looks like landfall right around Myrtle Beach and North into NC.  Approaches as a 936mb and sits around 946 at landfall.  I think it looks pretty good, without an obscenely low pressure.  High end cat3 - cat 4.  Think we may be finally narrowing down an OTS vs landfall situation.

If I were to guess, it's somewhere in the SE, between FL and the NC/VA border at the furthest North point...  I expect to see a nicer cluster through at least day 4 on the EPS later.

[BlunderStorm]

If I were in southern Florida I would be looking at alternate routes up the peninsula should the region fall under threat. The greater Miami area is home to over 5,000,000 million people and should evacuation be declared it would become a dumpster fire in five minutes or less. Unlike Houston, where you have plenty of flexibility in where traffic can go it is surrounded to the west, south, and north. Should a more northerly landfall occur in North Carolina I could see situations in which thousands of people are cut off from the mainland without food or fresh water. No matter where the hurricane hits barring OTS, destruction and fatalities will follow. (EDIT) east not north.

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

It seems foolish to believe this hurricane will be at the same pressure (pretty much... 961mb) that it is right now in 72 hours imo. 

I think the post was referring to some of the extreme pressure forecasts by some of the models.  But you're right, it might be 960 in 72 hours.  I don't think that would be a foolish assumption but a less likely possible assumption.

40 minutes ago, Ridingtime said:

I think it is getting safer to say an OTS solution is now much less likely than a major impact somewhere on the East US coast. And if so, this hurricane season may end up being the most memorable since 2005

Statements like these this far out, well John Hope is rolling in his grave. Y'all are putting way to much faith in silicon and not enough in grey matter.

[Windspeed]

Think we may be finally narrowing down an OTS vs landfall situation.

I disagree. Not when potential CONUS landfall is still at minimum 7 days away and models are walking a tightrope between trough exit or capture. One minor aspect of the jet stream and trough changes and things can swing to favoring a bend OTS. Still way too early.

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

 

I disagree. Not when potential CONUS landfall is still at minimum 7 days away and models are walking a tightrope between trough exit or capture. One minor aspect of the jet stream and trough changes and things can swing to favoring a bend OTS. Still way too early.
 

 

Agree could go ots, up the coast into gulf. Next few days models should have more data to so we'll see 

[Ridingtime]

7 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

 

Statements like these this far out, well John Hope is rolling in his grave. Y'all are putting way to much faith in silicon.

I'd be happy being wrong (not the type who roots for landfalling intense canes), but it is hard to ignore the consolidation and trends, not just in the OP models, but ensembles too. When you see a tight cluster of ensembles trend over each run more south, more west, more landfalling, and continue extreme intensity forecasts, why wouldn't you start realistically worrying about this?

[Jackstraw]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

 

I disagree. Not when potential CONUS landfall is still at minimum 7 days away and models are walking a tightrope between trough exit or capture. One minor aspect of the jet stream and trough changes and things can swing to favoring a bend OTS. Still way too early.
 

 

Absolutely right. There is still a possibility of it getting into the gulf.  The westward trend has not stopped yet.

[Windspeed]

Absolutely right. There is still a possibility of it getting into the gulf.  The westward trend has not stopped yet.

 

 

I mean it might be terribly frustrating for people, especially for those that may end up in the path, but it's not like we're within three days of of a well-modeled and locked-down setup. This would be a complicated forecast besides without Irma continuing to lose latitude. We're gaining our ideas of landfall potential based on long range model trends of features that could resolve entirely different in a few days or no longer resolve at all.

[RU848789]

I find it interesting that both the Euro and GFS show Irma coming very close to Cuba in the 120 hour range, whereas the NHC predicted location at 120 hours is the Central Bahamas, about 75-100 miles NE of where the Euro/GFS have Irma at that time.  May not sound like much, but 75 miles is the difference between a storm coming up the center of the Florida peninsula vs. coming up just off the coast of Florida, a la Matthew last year.  The CMC looks to be almost in the exact same location in the Central Bahamas at 114 hours, 12 hours earlier than when the NHC has Irma in that location (120 hours from the NHC is 126 hours for the 0Z model suite, as the NHC has a 2 am EDT initial condition, vs. the models' initial condition of 8 pm EDT, I believe).  

[ineedsnow]

[Jackstraw]

6 minutes ago, Ridingtime said:

I'd be happy being wrong (not the type who roots for landfalling intense canes), but it is hard to ignore the consolidation and trends, not just in the OP models, but ensembles too. When you see a tight cluster of ensembles trend over each run more south, more west, more landfalling, and continue extreme intensity forecasts, why wouldn't you start realistically worrying about this?

You are correct in the south and west trends and they seem to be verifying in the short term.  But in the last 36 hours I've seen no consistency whatsoever in what would bring this thing onshore anywhere on the EC or OTS.  I've seen cutoffs forecast from Missouri to Hudson bay.   All of the talk has been what would happen IF the run of the moment of the model of the moment verified out beyond 7 days.  It just doesn't make sense   One run away from a Euro run that sent it OTS.  The Euro waffles back and now OTS is an not going to happen?  It has just as much of a chance shooting the straits as hitting Wilmington or going OTS atm.  Theres too much attention on the future and not enough on the present.  Look at the environment it's in now.  There are players on the map that weren't modeled 3 days ago.  Let it evolve, let it get whithin the models skills before starting to narrow down absolutes.   It's just misleading imo and takes focus away from what is happening now that could greatly affect its future.

[SnoSki14]

It's increasingly going to get harder and harder for an OTS track to verify. The short term SW adjustments are nearly enough to impact the CONUS even with a sharp turn. 

I also don't see why Irma can't enter the gulf if its far enough south to escape the influence of the leftover weakness in the east. Maybe a Donna like track?

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's increasingly going to get harder and harder for an OTS track to verify. The short term SW adjustments are nearly enough to impact the CONUS even with a sharp turn. 

I also don't see why Irma can't enter the gulf if its far enough south to escape the influence of the leftover weakness in the east. Maybe a Donna like track?

Would you rule out mid Atlantic northeast or not yet 

[SnowGoose69]

Even the hurricane models now showing a bend towards Cuba on the 06Z early guidance.  Problem is its almost 5 days out

[Derecho!]

You'll note both the GEFS far-right and the EC recurve ensemble members require an almost immediate motion to the North of Irma's actual motion. 

[dan11295]

Any further south and Irma spends a lot of time over mountainous terrain, interesting to see if that trend continues. Even that track verbatim would probably see some disruption of the storm due to downsloping. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon eye dropsonde says 951 mb.  This is clearly the best satellite presentation we've seen.

[lakeeffectkid383]

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon eye dropsonde says 951 mb.  This is clearly the best satellite presentation we've seen.

Wow 8-10mb drop in pressure? Pretty impressive. Irma looking extremely better by the second on satellite. 

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

And the S and W trend continues on the 06z GFS...

[lakeeffectkid383]

Hr 126... Central Cuba.

[BlueDXer75]

6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

And the S and W trend continues on the 06z GFS...

SITTING OVER CUBA AT 132