LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Just looked it showed 900 at hour 216 on Tropical Tidbits. 5 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Looks like 900, but it is hard to tell on PW. Tropical Tidbits is definitely 900. LOL....my old eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Lesson to be learned to the posters that said this would be a fish storm on 12z gfs let the run finish. Ends up hitting Maine. Won't matter. Folks love to use their interpretations and post them as fact. Part of the board mentality. That's a solid cat 2 into Maine. Maybe higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, larrye said: What lesson? This is still 10 days out? It will change again. Think about it for a bit. There's a lesson in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: TS force and even hurricane-force windfield on the GFS is absolutely massive No doubt. The integrated kinetic energy at hour 204 has to be absolutely phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 What lesson? This is still 10 days out? It will change again.WhooshSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I missed the part where it was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane earlier. It may impact us later, of course, but it's awesome to watch a storm like this when it doesn't have any immediate impact on human lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Is the 53rd equipped to fly a fix mission out of Puerto Rico for extended range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Can't tell 100%, but seem to be two camps there. One that seems to go agree with the OP (but slower), and one that is slower & rides the coast. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12Z GEFS at 168 has pretty tight clustering north of the Lesser Antilles. Those are some beefy ridges in the desert southwest and northern Atlantic with a deep trough sandwiched in the middle. I can envision a lot of different ways this could play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Long-tracking Cape Verde hurricanes are my favorite meteorological phenomenon. It's what got me into weather as a kid. I felt like this year would be a change versus the unfavorable pattern that has plagued the eastern MDR this decade. Of course, based on my seasonal forecast we are a week or two ahead schedule. Having such a strong wave exit Africa with this setup was perfect timing however. More for the main Atl Tropical thread, but seeing the Azores ridging build/shift west to Bermuda along with a mid-to-upper weakness on the eastern extent really helps to back down strong northeasterly flow off of NW Africa. That helps back down the SAL and allow deep African waves like Irma to thrive. Irma isn't going to be a one-off hurricane in the deep MDR this year. We may have three or four of these through October if this pattern holds. Perhaps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 But, but, ldub23 promised that Harvey would dissipate into nothing, September would be quiet and the MDR was dead indefinitely... Seriously though, Irma has gotten its act together remarkably quickly. Did not expect to see an eye already, although it is in an excellent environment for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Significant deepening is still occurring, on the order of about 2MB per hour. Max winds estimated also continue to increase. It's probably a 95kt cane now as the estimate tends to be slightly underdone when you have a strengthening system. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 31 AUG 2017 Time : 171500 UTC Lat : 17:00:22 N Lon : 34:11:00 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.1 / 967.4mb/ 92.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.1 5.3 5.3 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -33.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : N/A - Environmental MSLP : 1012mb Satellite Name : MSG3 Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.7 degrees **************************************************** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z ECM looks to have inialized zed Irma pretty poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 HR 126 on each of these, so not that it's super reliable, but here is what HWRF and HMON are showing... HWRF: HMON: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Euro at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z EURO at 144 in Northern Antilles moving WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z Euro coming in north of 0Z through 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Regarding GFS and Euro differences... Quote ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) • Hydrostatic, global spectral model • Incorporates a no “bogus vortex” • Includes the “4-D assimilation” of environmental observations GFS (Global Forecasts System) • Hydrostatic, global spectral model (NCEP’s model) • Incorporates “vortex-relocation” based on initial model runs • Includes the “3-D assimilation” of environmental observations Please note this is dated from 2015 and sourced to University of North Carolina at Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z Euro coming in north of 0Z through 144. Not sure what you are looking at...same latitude just slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Z-Cast said: Not sure what you are looking at...same latitude just slower. The eye is just north of PR this run instead of along south shore like 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 The Northern shore of Puerto Rico gets raked fairly well, luckily at least on this run, the RFQ stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Going to miss DR this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z EURO at 168 gives PR rakage as it is just north of the island itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Look how low the wind shear is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 this is a bonafide east CONUS LF look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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