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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Lesson to be learned to the posters that said this would be a fish storm on 12z gfs let the run finish. Ends up hitting Maine.

Won't matter. Folks love to use their interpretations and post them as fact. Part of the board mentality.

That's a solid cat 2 into Maine. Maybe higher.

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12Z GEFS at 168 has pretty tight clustering north of the Lesser Antilles. Those are some beefy ridges in the desert southwest and northern Atlantic with a deep trough sandwiched in the middle. I can envision a lot of different ways this could play out.

2cVUiUx.png

 

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Long-tracking Cape Verde hurricanes are my favorite meteorological phenomenon. It's what got me into weather as a kid. I felt like this year would be a change versus the unfavorable pattern that has plagued the eastern MDR this decade. Of course, based on my seasonal forecast we are a week or two ahead schedule. Having such a strong wave exit Africa with this setup was perfect timing however.

 

More for the main Atl Tropical thread, but seeing the Azores ridging build/shift west to Bermuda along with a mid-to-upper weakness on the eastern extent really helps to back down strong northeasterly flow off of NW Africa. That helps back down the SAL and allow deep African waves like Irma to thrive. Irma isn't going to be a one-off hurricane in the deep MDR this year. We may have three or four of these through October if this pattern holds. Perhaps more.

 

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But, but, ldub23 promised that Harvey would dissipate into nothing, September would be quiet and the MDR was dead indefinitely... Seriously though, Irma has gotten its act together remarkably quickly. Did not expect to see an eye already, although it is in an excellent environment for the time being.

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Significant deepening is still occurring, on the order of about 2MB per hour. Max winds estimated also continue to increase. It's probably a 95kt cane now as the estimate tends to be slightly underdone when you have a strengthening system.

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  31 AUG 2017    Time :   171500 UTC
      Lat :   17:00:22 N     Lon :   34:11:00 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.1 / 967.4mb/ 92.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.1     5.3     5.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -33.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii : N/A
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Name :    MSG3 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.7 degrees 

****************************************************

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Regarding GFS and Euro differences...

 

Quote
ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting)
Hydrostatic, global spectral model
Incorporates a no “bogus vortex”
Includes the “4-D assimilation” of environmental observations
 
GFS (Global Forecasts System)
Hydrostatic, global spectral model (NCEP’s model)
Incorporates “vortex-relocation” based on initial model runs
Includes the “3-D assimilation” of environmental observations

Please note this is dated from 2015 and sourced to University of North Carolina at Charlotte. 

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