NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, pazzo83 said: That seems way beyond the theoretical minimum at that latitude. I'm not entirely sure, it's going to be bigly by then. And that area is known for RI. See Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Wouldn't that be the lowest pressure ever recorded for any storm anywhere on the globe? Yes, massive Typhoon Tip has the record at 870mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 HMON also tries for 850mb winds near 217 kts... or 250 mph at hr 123. Just a tad windy upstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Do we have any basis to judge the HMON's accuracy at this range (~120hrs)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, yoda said: HMON also tries for 850mb winds near 217 kts... or 250 mph at hr 123. Just a tad windy upstairs Those winds wouldn't be that far off the sfc with a min central pressure in the 860mb range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, madwx said: Those winds wouldn't be that far off the sfc with a min central pressure in the 860mb range Right? At 850mb in a 855-860mb cane, that's like what, 100m up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I understand the hype because this was never modeled before...but didn't someone post a map of theoretical minimum pressure which capped it at about 890-900mb? In other news, if I lived in the Bahamas I would book the first flight outta there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 NHC is doing 3 hourly fixes, 959 MB/115 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like I will have to post this many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z HMON at 126 Good God. It's like the movie "The Day After Tomorrow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Morris said: Looks like I will have to post this many times. Maybe HMON and gfs but also HWRF got it down to below 870s apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Don't believe anyon 1 minute ago, Morris said: Looks like I will have to post this many times. Don't believe anyone here believes it gets that low. It's beautiful to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: HMON also tries for 850mb winds near 217 kts... or 250 mph at hr 123. Just a tad windy upstairs Maybe Irma can turn red at that point and Earth can have a Great Red Spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Has sub 900 ever been recorded actually in the Atlantic Ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Looks like I will have to post this many times. So the HMON does run of the GFS? If so then it makes sense why the pressures are as low or lower than the GFS but the HWRF is showing these extreme low pressures as well and it's not run off the GFS correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The lowest non-tornadic atmospheric pressure ever measured was 870 hPa (0.858 atm; 25.69 inHg), set on 12 October 1979, during Typhoon Tip in the western Pacific Ocean. Hurricane Wilma is the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, after reaching an intensity of 882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg) in October 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, pazzo83 said: Has sub 900 ever been recorded actually in the Atlantic Ocean? Yes, Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Gilbert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yes, Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Gilbert Both were in the Caribbean with that pressure. I didn't mean the Atlantic Basin as a whole, I meant the actual Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Note: HMON and GFS are not ocean-coupled, which means there can be runaway feedback that can lead to over-deepening of TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 And the sick part (again, completely understanding the pressure biases noted with the GFS) is that the HMON's range is only out to 126....the GFS has it's lowest pressures with Irma at T+186 - T+200....so I would assume that the hurricane models will depict even lower pressures in future runs....all eye candy of course.... And I'm sure there will be some serious tweeking of the GFS down the road to dampen these pressure biases.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS/EURO/GEM ENS all have it going into Bahamas riding up Florida and hitting the SE Coast around Georgia/SC. Pretty solid consensus right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My God, HWRF is at 864mb hr 120... You got confused with the HMON... HWRF doesn't go below 910 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Both were in the Caribbean with that pressure. I didn't mean the Atlantic Basin as a whole, I meant the actual Atlantic Ocean. Labor Day 1935 was 892 hPa south of the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Let's say the HMON is off by 30mb - that's still an 880s cane approaching the SE United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS/EURO/GEM ENS all have it going into Bahamas riding up Florida and hitting the SE Coast around Georgia/SC. Pretty solid consensus right there. Yeah am leaning a Matthew type track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Holy HWRF, down to 871mbar hr 117! And the size is enormous. It gives Typhoon Tip a run for its money... (EDIT) Scratch that it out does Tip by a long shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, Morris said: Looks like I will have to post this many times. The up-welling alone would shred this storm apart at that intensity. Hurricanes of this magnitude generally cannot maintain that strength for long. It's like freezing rain, it is a self depreciating event and tears the same environment it needs to exist apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Labor Day 1935 was 892 hPa south of the Keys. Allen in 1980 got to 899 MB, Rita in 2005 got to 895 MB, and Gilbert in 1988 to 888 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 18z GEFS made quite an improvement on coming in general agreement, narrowing it down to the SE. No OTS tracks. Not to say it won't make additional moves (and it will). A bit alarming to see so many members bring a sub-965mb hurricane into CAE, CLT, and RDU. Even got a couple into ATL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Allen in 1980 got to 899 MB, Rita in 2005 got to 895 MB, and Gilbert in 1988 to 888 MB. Those were all in the Gulf/Caribbean. The poster specifically asked for sub-900 mb storms in the Atlantic Ocean. The rarity of sub-900 mb storms in the North Atlantic is an indication that these aggressive model forecasts are unlikely to occur, never mind that some of these forecasts stretch the bounds of what's physically possible in this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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