ajr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 47 minutes ago, bdgwx said: There's a pretty significant shift south at 120. This brings the GFS into even better consensus with the ECMWF and UKMET. It does appear that there is a slight turn left like what the UKMET shows after 120 and then a turn to the north before 168. There would definitely be a lot of lingering time in the Bahamas if model depiction becomes reality. You can also see Irma starting to interact with the trough by hour 144 and by hour 168 the cyclone is clearly tucked into the RER of an anticyclonically curved ULL jet streak so it should have a lot ULL divergence and a good outflow channel to support a deep cyclone. So far there is nothing I see with this 18Z run to make me think forecast confidence isn't above average at D5 lead times. I'm new to reading these sorts of maps, but is the gist of what you're saying that at the upper levels of the atmosphere that air is flowing away from the center of low pressure, basically allowing for deepening low pressure? The opposite would be if air were crashing into the area of low pressure at that level preventing further strengthening...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Holy HWRF, down to 871mbar hr 117! And the size is enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z HMON is nuts.... 882mb in Bahamas at 108 Just c'mon HMON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Holy HWRF, down to 871mbar hr 117! And the size is enormous. HMON is at 876 at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Holy HWRF, down to 871mbar hr 117! And the size is enormous. It's one thing to say the GFS gets overdone, but when the hurricane models go that crazy too... When has a hurricane gone below 900mb around the Bahamas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: They're in there a bit tight, but is that 155 on the northeast end? Yeowch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 My God, HWRF is at 864mb hr 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said: They're in there a bit tight, but is that 155 on the northeast end? Yeowch... Yep -- 156.2 knot maximum, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Max wind at hr 120 on the HWRF is just under 170mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's one thing to say the GFS gets overdone, but when the hurricane models go that crazy too... When has a hurricane gone below 900mb around the Bahamas? Doesn't the HMON run off the GFS? I could be wrong though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said: They're in there a bit tight, but is that 155 on the northeast end? Yeowch... Look to the upper right of the image...it tells you lowest pressure and max wind in kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: My God, HWRF is at 864mb hr 120... HMON refuses to be outdone... take 858 at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Holy Crap*** HMON gets Irma down to 856mb hr126, max winds 160mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Holy Crap*** HMON gets Irma down to 856mb hr126, max winds 160mph. Um no... try 185-190 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: HMON refuses to be outdone... take 858 at 120 I know, both show cat 5 winds too with humongous wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Um no... try 185-190 mph Yeah I see that, my resolution isn't as good as what you're using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Can one of you post that 856 mb map. Needed for posterity and I can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: HMON refuses to be outdone... take 858 at 120 Wouldn't that be the lowest pressure ever recorded for any storm anywhere on the globe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 HRON 857 at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Can one of you post that 856 mb map. Needed for posterity and I can't find it. I put it in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Holy Crap*** HMON gets Irma down to 856mb hr126, max winds 160mph. That could be a sharknado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Can one of you post that 856 mb map. Needed for posterity and I can't find it. Here you go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Can one of you post that 856 mb map. Needed for posterity and I can't find it. 18z HMON at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: I put it in the banter thread Thanks. And TT wasn't updating for me for some reason but it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Is HMON really trying to do a 120nm ERC in the last frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 The scariest part is that the windfield is larger than most states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can one of you post that 856 mb map. Needed for posterity and I can't find it. TT has 857.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Is HMON really trying to do a 120nm ERC in the last frame? A Cat 5 within a CAT 2..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My God, HWRF is at 864mb hr 120... That seems way beyond the theoretical minimum at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Maybe the island would be under water? Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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